In the past two weeks, A-Shares have mainly rebounded from shock, the trading volume has not changed significantly, and there has been no significant increase in on-site financing. The market is still dominated by the game of stock funds, repairing the stock price structure after the sharp decline in the early stage. A total of 4200 A-shares rose, and only 440 fell. It seems that the rise and fall proportion is very high, but in fact, most stocks have little increase, and the disk differentiation is very obvious. Electrical equipment, general machinery, non-ferrous metals, warehousing and logistics and other industries have a strong performance.
From a fundamental point of view, the closure and control of the epidemic has eased. The news broadcast reported that the resumption of production and work has increased in an orderly manner. It is not known when it will return to normal level, but we firmly believe that the epidemic will pass.
From the technical point of view, from 3708 points of the Shanghai stock index in December last year to 2863 points at the end of April, the operation of the index presents a clear five wave structure, and the subsequent rebound belongs to the A-band rebound. After the end, there will be b-wave backtracking and C-wave trying to attack again. If there is a stronger positive stimulus than expected, which makes the Shanghai Stock Index break through 3300 points, it will open more space for the market, otherwise the space for a-wave rebound is limited.
From the market level, the exchange rate has rebounded significantly recently, but the expected space is limited. After overseas people have given up epidemic prevention and returned to work and production, the increased procurement volume due to the epidemic is bound to decrease. The decline of exchange rate can not improve the export competitiveness of this part. If epidemic prevention and control are normalized, it is not impossible for a few foreign enterprises to flee. Floor financing belongs to more radical investors. Only when the floor financing scale bottoms out and rebounds significantly can it be possible to reverse the situation of the stock market. The protection of the main funds can only alleviate the systemic risks and can not reverse the trend.
To sum up, the rebound of stock game should focus on trading opportunities, especially the trading opportunities of individual stocks. In terms of operation, eliminate the weak and retain the strong, focus on cautious defense, and focus on policy orientation, advanced construction, domestic substitution and four low sectors. Investors with rich experience in short-term operation can choose some stocks that are extremely oversold in the short term to bet on a rebound, which is not suitable for war.
(the author is a former senior investment consultant of CICC wealth securities)
