since late 4, the expected repair of the epidemic has promoted the performance of A-Shares significantly stronger than overseas due to concerns about the US economic recession, US stocks have continued to adjust since late April. On Friday, the bid winning P 500 index was 20% lower than its recent high, touching the standard of a technical bear market. The S & P 500 index fell 3.05% this week. Compared with the "recession" of U.S. stocks, the A-share market has stepped out of the independent market due to the expected improvement of the epidemic. Wande a has rebounded 11.87% since April 27.
as the disturbance of the epidemic situation in Shanghai subsides, the market will gradually return to the main line of economic repair from the expectation of stable growth in the game from the market perspective, since the end of last year, the market has given high expectations for the steady growth policy under the background of increasing concerns about the downward pressure on China's economy, and this expectation has become stronger every time the economy and market weaken. As the market trading logic has shifted from economic concerns to the recovery of the economy after the epidemic since April, the main logic of the market will also change.
the "steady growth" in the first half of the year and the "consumption promotion" relay in the second half of the year from the economic point of view, since the beginning of this year, the financial front has made efforts to drive infrastructure investment to maintain a high growth rate, and it is difficult to further exceed expectations in the follow-up from historical experience, in the period of great downward pressure on the economy and weak domestic demand, the main focus of policy is gradually changing from investment to consumption referring to the financial crisis in 2008, the four trillion infrastructure investment plan in 2008 promoted the growth rate of China's infrastructure investment to rise sharply, and the infrastructure and real estate sector took the lead in benefiting. Then, with the implementation of policies on automobiles and household appliances since the end of 2008, the sales of household appliances and automobiles ushered in a significant increase in 2009.
the expansion of the scope of consumption vouchers marks a new stage of "promoting consumption" since May Day, the issuance of consumer vouchers has accelerated. During the "May Day" period, at least 15 provinces and cities and their subordinate cities issued nearly 2.1 billion yuan of consumption vouchers, of which Guangdong, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Hainan and other places issued more than 200 million yuan. The new feature of this round of consumption coupons is that in addition to the consumption of non durable goods such as catering, culture and tourism, entertainment and department stores, many provinces and cities have begun to issue consumption coupons for durable goods such as cars, household appliances and real estate. On the other hand, the reduction of LPR interest rate eased the pressure on Residents' housing loans and enhanced residents' consumption ability from the side.
follow the direction of minimum resistance to post epidemic repair with the recent worries about overseas disturbances and exchange rate coming to an end, the market is returning to the main line of epidemic repair. For the market, the choice of style will be more important than the overall judgment of the market. From the perspective of structure, focus on four main lines: 1) with the gradual rise of inflation expectations, the CPI related agricultural and other essential consumer goods sector is still the main line of the year; 2) Automobile, food and beverage, household appliances and other industries that are expected to benefit from the consumption promotion policy; 3) Post epidemic recovery related express logistics, catering tourism, airport aviation, media and other offline economy related industries; 4) Textile clothing, household appliances, light industry, etc. benefiting from the depreciation of RMB exchange rate.
risk tips
Geopolitical conflicts exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
