Since the 4.26 counterattack, A-Shares have walked out of the independent market without fear of external disturbance, and the market has rebounded strongly by nearly 300 points. After the monthly level repair, the current question that must be considered is, how about the subsequent rebound space and sustainability? From a longer-term perspective, who will relay the main line after steady growth?
A-Shares went out of the independent market and made a 300 point counterattack, which was the victory of the lone brave
Since April, the turmoil in overseas markets has intensified, investors' concerns have spread from inflation to recession, US stocks have fallen for the seventh consecutive week, and the Dow has set the longest consecutive decline record in nearly a century. A shares are not afraid of external disturbances and go out of the independent market against the trend. In the weekly report "credit freezing point, counterattack continues" (20220515) last week, we stressed that the correction in April has reflected the re contraction of the credit side. After the confirmation of the downward inflection point of the epidemic and the landing of the dovish table contraction of the Federal Reserve, the credit ice touch means that the three-level drive of the counterattack has also been in place. Since the bottom rebounded on April 26, the Shanghai index has successfully stood at 3100 points, while the 300 point counterattack officially declared the victory of the lone brave.
rebounded to what stage—— New features after oversold rebound
first, after three consecutive weeks of repair, the oversold kinetic energy of A-Shares gradually weakened . From the tracking of trading indicators, after three consecutive weeks of repair, the number of new low stocks and the proportion of vulnerable stocks have basically repaired from the extreme range to near the historical center, which also means that the oversold kinetic energy of A-Shares is gradually weakening.
secondly, according to the law of historical experience, the space for this round of oversold rebound is basically fulfilled . According to the experience of oversold since 2010, in the oversold rebound market, the rebound at the bottom is equivalent to the decline in the early stage; In terms of the rise and fall before and after this round of rebound, the rebound space of the all a index has been basically realized since April 26.
finally, during the oversold rebound period, the industry and individual stocks showed a "reversal" phenomenon. After the oversold rebound market ended, the style of value stocks dominated again, and the excess return of consumer stocks in the industry increased significantly . In the process of oversold rebound, the most obvious feature is that the greater the decline in the earlier stage, the greater the rebound. After the oversold rebound, the style will return to undervalued and blue chip stocks. In the industry, the consumer sector has obvious excess advantages in the next week-2 months.
after the momentum of oversold weakened, the market needs new momentum
In conclusion, after the rebound at the monthly level, the trading indicators show that the driving force of market oversold is gradually weakened; According to the law of historical experience, after the 300 point counterattack, the space for this round of oversold rebound is also basically fulfilled. The inflection point of the epidemic, the peak of tightening and the ice of credit are the three-level drivers supporting the 4.26 counterattack; After the oversold rebound, the market needs new momentum to rise further. Before the external interest rate, China's credit and performance trend have not been reversed, the medium-term layout continues to pay attention to three uncertainties: 1) the certainty of steady growth policy; 2) Dilemma reversal and certainty of long-term performance improvement; 3) Certainty of medium and short-term profits.
long term layout direction is emerging: strategic opportunity of large consumption + scientific innovation 50 . From a longer-term perspective, the direction of strategic layout is emerging. （1） industry rotation, who will relay steady growth —— Consumption. At present, the steady growth market is gradually transitioning to the middle and later stage, and consumer stocks are expected to relay steady growth to become the main line of the market in the medium term. The strategic allocation opportunity of large consumption has been gradually approaching. （2） the king of cost performance of long-term configuration sector - Kechuang 50 . Based on the performance trend, institutional position and valuation level, the science and innovation board with high growth + underestimation + low allocation has entered the window of strategic layout.
strategy suggestions and industry recommendations
(I) credit entities are both weak, policies welcome the second development period, steady growth direction, and recommend state-owned enterprises / high-quality private enterprise developers, high-quality small and medium-sized banks and local infrastructure; （2） Performance certainty - photovoltaic and oil transportation with medium and short-term supply and demand mismatch, aerospace equipment with national reform + growth trend; （3） Dilemma reverse the concept of tax exemption, hotel and express.
risk tips : 1. The epidemic is out of control; 2. A sharp recession; 3. The policy has changed more than expected.
