Recently, the Chinese and American stock markets have gone in the opposite direction. The US stock market has been worried about the stagflation of early trading to the recession of recent trading. Investors are generally worried that the US Federal Reserve and the US government may refer to the US policy model of controlling inflation at the cost of economic growth in the late 1970s. The performance of China's A-share market is relatively more resilient. Frequent policy warm wind and local epidemic relief are the main support for the recent performance of China's market. At present, the dislocation between domestic and foreign growth and policy cycle is gradually close to the situation we suggested in the early stage.
Looking forward to the future, we reiterate that the market has some characteristics of the bottom in terms of policy, valuation and capital sentiment, and the market already has the value of the middle line; There are still some challenges in the market environment, and more positive fundamental catalysts are needed for further growth. In particular, the month on month improvement of earnings expectations may be more important. Under the background of China's "steady growth" overweight and overseas growth downturn, we will focus on the post epidemic repair of China's fundamentals in the future, including real estate and consumer demand.
currently focus on three directions:
1) the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, real estate stable demand and related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, household appliances, etc.);
2) for the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released. The turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
market returns Gu : : A-share market shows resilience, and Shanghai stock index has been rising for two weeks
Major peripheral markets such as U.S. stocks continued to decline, and the U.S. bond interest rate returned below 2.8%. In contrast, the A-share market showed relative resilience. Although the growth data were disturbed by the local epidemic in China, the 5-year LPR interest rate adjustment and the steady growth policy in real estate and other fields boosted investors' sentiment, and the Shanghai composite index continued to rebound, closing up 2.0% for the whole week. The average daily turnover of the market is at a relatively low level of 0.82 trillion yuan in the near future, with a net inflow of 15.2 billion yuan from the North throughout the week, including 14.2 billion yuan on Friday, a new high in a single day of the year. Structurally, the growth style still has a relative performance. The weekly growth rates of Kechuang 50 and gem were 3.4% and 2.5% respectively, and the weekly growth rates of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 were 2.2%. In terms of industry, coal and non-ferrous metals, which are supported by the price rise of bulk commodities, have increased relatively, power equipment, new energy and electronics in the field of manufacturing growth have also performed well, and the photovoltaic industry chain has performed strongly; Last week, only the pharmaceutical sector fell, while real estate and commercial retail rose slightly.
market exhibition hope: policy continues to strengthen and pay attention to the effectiveness of fundamental restoration
Recently, the Chinese and American stock markets have gone in the opposite direction. US stocks have been worried about the stagnation of early trading to the recession of recent trading. The US bond interest rate has dropped significantly from the high of 3.2%. Some leading retail performance is lower than expected, which has begun to reflect the damage caused by high prices to economic activities, and investors are generally worried that the Federal Reserve and the US government may refer to the policy model of controlling inflation at the cost of economic growth in the United States in the late 1970s. The performance of China's A-share market is relatively more resilient. Although the economic data fell sharply in April, the epidemic situation in some parts of China such as Shanghai has improved significantly, and the resumption of work and production has been promoted one after another, which has greatly alleviated the concerns about growth in the early stage. The steady growth policy has made great efforts after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in the first quarter. The central bank lowered the five-year LPR by 15bp, and there have been more substantive progress in the policies related to maintaining the stability of real estate, Frequent policy warm wind and local epidemic relief have become the main support for China's market performance in the near future. At present, the dislocation between domestic and foreign growth and policy cycle is gradually close to the situation we suggested in the early stage looking forward to the future, we reiterate that the market has some characteristics at the bottom in terms of policy, valuation and capital sentiment, and the market has a midline value; There are still some challenges in the market environment, and more positive fundamental catalysts are needed for further growth especially the month on month improvement of profit expectation may be more important. Under the background of China's "steady growth" overweight and overseas growth downturn, we will focus on the post epidemic repair of China's fundamentals in the future, focusing on real estate, consumer demand, etc. Structurally, we believe that the undervalued "steady growth" field still has a certain allocation value; The recent growth style has a good performance, which may mainly benefit from the periodic repair of valuation brought by factors such as the positive progress of epidemic prevention and control. The future performance may also need to judge the medium-term trend by integrating the changes of macro factors such as overseas growth, inflation and policies, as well as China's "stable expectation" measures recent progress in the following aspects:
1) the economic data in April suffered from the periodic interference of local epidemic in China: recently released economic data in April showed that the production side and demand side were affected by the epidemic, with the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in April - 2.9% and the year-on-year decline of 61.5% in Shanghai, reflecting the great impact of logistics obstruction, inventory consumption and other factors; On the demand side, social retail consumption decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in April, and the epidemic and logistics obstruction also led to negative growth in online consumption for the first time since 2015. In addition, in April, the fixed asset investment fell to 1.8% year-on-year, the national commercial housing sales area slowed to - 39% year-on-year, and the urban survey unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in April. The rhythm of returning to work and production after the epidemic and the implementation effect of the demand side steady growth policy are still the focus of attention.
2) the policy progress is relatively positive, and the implementation strength is increased: the central bank recently lowered the LPR over 5 years to 4.45% again after adjusting the lower limit of individual first home loan interest rate in the early stage. According to the calculation of CICC macro group, the reduction of LPR is expected to save about 57 billion yuan of housing loan interest expenditure annually. The central bank's move releases a clear signal of stabilizing real estate and stabilizing expectations, and will focus on the effect of policies in the future; In terms of epidemic support policies, the CSRC issued the notice on further exerting the function of capital market to support the accelerated recovery and development of areas and industries seriously affected by the epidemic, which mainly provides support in terms of increasing direct financing support, implementing extension policies and giving full play to the role of industry institutions for areas and industries seriously affected by the epidemic.
3) support the development of platform Economy: the recent special consultation meeting on "promoting the sustainable and healthy development of digital economy" said that "support the platform economy" and "support the listing of digital enterprises in capital markets outside China". The seat Conference on stabilizing growth and market players and ensuring employment also mentioned "support the platform economy and the legal and compliant listing and financing of digital economy at home and abroad", We expect that the market's policy expectation in the field of platform economy is expected to improve marginally.
4) epidemic progress in China: in the past week, the number of newly confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections in Shanghai remained below 1000, and some bus and subway lines resumed operation on May 22; Beijing maintains double-digit new cases every day. Fengtai District and Haidian District have successively announced the upgrading and control of the whole region. The situation of epidemic prevention and control is still grim, but there continue to be signs of improvement.
5) overseas progress: recently, the US dollar index and the high US bond interest rate fell, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate fell below 6.7; Recently, the US president began a five-day visit to South Korea and Japan, which has also attracted more attention from the market.
line industry suggestions : the main line of steady growth still has configuration value
we suggest to focus on three directions at present:
1) the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, real estate stable demand and related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, household appliances, etc.);
2) for the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released. The turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
recent concerns:
1) the progress of the epidemic situation in China and the resumption of work and production after the epidemic; 2) The implementation of China's steady growth policy; 3) Global monetary policy and growth.
