In the past week, the Shanghai index fell 1.63%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.35% and the gem index rose 0.73%. How to go in the future market of a shares? What happened at the weekend? Let's see what the chief brokers say!
top ten Weekend Events
1. Qiushi magazine published Xi Jinping general secretary's important article "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China's digital economy"
The second issue of Qiushi magazine, published on January 16, will publish an important article Xi Jinping by the general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, the president of the state and the chairman of the Central Military Commission, "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China's digital economy". The paper points out that developing digital economy is a strategic choice to grasp the new opportunities of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform. The healthy development of digital economy is conducive to promoting the construction of a new development pattern, a modern economic system and a new national competitive advantage. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, the CPC Central Committee has attached great importance to the development of digital economy, raised it into a national strategy, and deployed it at the national level to promote the development of digital economy. In recent years, China's digital economy has developed rapidly and made remarkable achievements. At the same time, we should see that China's digital economy is large but not strong, fast but not excellent compared with the world's digital economy powers and powers. It should also be noted that in the rapid development of China's digital economy, there are also some unhealthy and non-standard signs and trends. These problems not only affect the healthy development of the digital economy, but also violate laws and regulations and pose a threat to the national economic and financial security. They must be resolutely corrected and managed. We should strengthen the tackling of key core technologies, accelerate the construction of new infrastructure, promote the integrated development of digital economy and real economy, promote the development of digital industries in key areas, standardize the development of digital economy, improve the governance system of digital economy, and actively participate in international cooperation in digital economy.
2 . The monetary fund welcomes strong supervision, and the salary of fund managers shall not be linked to the scale! More than 200 billion included in additional supervision
On January 14, the CSRC solicited opinions from the market on the Interim Provisions on the supervision of important money market funds (hereinafter referred to as the Interim Provisions), which aims to improve the supervision of important money market funds and protect the legitimate rights and interests of fund unit holders. The Interim Provisions clarify the definition and evaluation methods of important money market funds, effectively identify important money market funds, strengthen the additional regulatory requirements of important money market funds, and the risk prevention, control, supervision and management mechanism of important money market funds.
The CSRC will evaluate the money market fund reported by the fund manager, and the evaluation criteria include but are not limited to the net asset value of the fund. Including the recent change trend and potential rise range of the fund's net asset value scale; Relevance. Including fund leverage ratio and leverage scale, interbank business investment balance, etc; Substitutability. Including the proportion of securities held by the fund in the corresponding market scale, the number of fund unitholders, the top ten fund unitholders and the proportion of held shares; Complexity. Including the ratio of the realization period of fund portfolio assets to the redemption period of investors, the proportion of liquidity limited assets in the net asset value of the fund, the potential valuation loss of portfolio assets, etc.
The Interim Provisions specify additional regulatory requirements for important money market funds. From the aspects of operation and investment philosophy, risk management, personnel and system configuration, investment proportion, trading behavior, scale control, application and redemption management, sales behavior and risk reserve provision, the fund managers, custodians and sales institutions of important money market funds are required to be more strict and prudent than conventional funds. The interim regulations specify that fund managers should take effective measures to strengthen the liquidity management of important money market funds, optimize the structure of fund unitholders and strengthen the control of fund scale.
3 , the strongest volcano in 30 years! Tonga's economy lost contact or heavily hit countries issued tsunami warning
According to Xinhua news agency, a submarine volcano in Tonga, the South The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Island, erupted on the 14th and erupted again on the 15th. A tsunami was observed in the capital Nukualofa. Neighboring countries Fiji, Samoa and even New Zealand issued tsunami warnings, and even Japan, 10000 kilometers away, issued tsunami warnings. However, the latest news shows that the Japan Meteorological Agency lifted the warning at 2 p.m. local time on the 16th.
4 . The Chinese R & D team launched a more sensitive kit, which was approved for marketing to accurately detect Omicron
Tsinghua University, 15, announced that the New Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) nucleic acid detection kit (fluorescent PCR method), jointly developed by the professor Guo Yong of Tsinghua University medical school and many new units of Beijing Xin Yi Biotechnology Co., Ltd., was officially approved by the State Administration of drug supervision and Administration (NMPA). It is reported that the new kit effectively improves the detection sensitivity and can reduce the positive missed detection. In addition, this "smell sensitive" covid-19 detector will not miss detection and miss target for the 15 most common variants in the world, including delta strain and Omicron strain.
5 . For all car enterprises! Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will release the replacement brand
In January 15th, the official account of WeChat Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announced that it would hold the EVOGO Conference on power exchange in January 18th, and the slogan of "energy exchange" was also loud. The power exchange products of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will face all vehicle enterprises. According to the analysis of industry experts, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) This means that it has officially entered the power exchange market of "separation of vehicle and electricity", hoping to cut a new market cake during the accelerated development of new energy vehicles.
6 , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) : the U.S. government has the right to terminate the contract at any time due to its own factors
Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) a supplementary announcement was issued on Friday. The U.S. government has the right to terminate the contract at any time due to its own factors. The above meaning means that the U.S. government can request to stop the execution of the contract and cancel subsequent procurement without any reason. The Seller shall bear the corresponding risks and possible losses. In addition, the company replied to the letter of concern of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. At present, the company has obtained the authorization of the U.S. FDA EUA and can be sold in the United States, but it has not obtained the Chinese license and cannot be put into use in China. The above contents of the company's announcement specifically emphasize the possible reduction of antigen detection sensitivity. In the future, the company will strengthen the control over the integrity of the wording of the announcement, but the company has no behavior and motivation to hype the stock price through information disclosure.
Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) a change announcement was issued on Sunday. During the execution of contracts and orders between the company's U.S. subsidiaries and New York, Massachusetts and HHS (executed by the U.S. ACC representative), the company was affected by local epidemic changes, policy changes, changes in the company's supply chain capacity, material flow transportation risks, unpredictable or force majeure and other factors, There may be a risk that the contract or order cannot be performed on schedule or in full.
It should be noted that the U.S. government has the right to terminate the contract signed between the company's U.S. subsidiary and U.S. HHS (executed by the U.S. ACC representative) at any time due to its own factors. There is uncertainty about whether the contract can be fully implemented. In the previous announcement, the company mentioned the epidemic prevention related plans issued by the U.S. government, as well as the relevant policies, procurement and distribution plans and conditions of covid-19 antigen household self-test kit products. Investors are reminded that the relevant information and procurement involved in the above contents are not only for the company. Investors are requested not to misunderstand the contents and misinfer the changes it brings to the company's performance.
7 , Kaile Science And Technology Co.Ltd.Hubei(600260) : General Manager Zhu Junlin is suspected of serious violation of the law and taken retention measures
On January 16, Kaile Science And Technology Co.Ltd.Hubei(600260) announced that the company recently received a lien notice from the supervision committee of Shifeng District, Zhuzhou City, Hunan Province. Because Mr. Zhu Junlin, deputy director and general manager of the company, was suspected of serious violation of the law, the company decided to take lien measures against him. At present, the company has made proper arrangements for relevant work. During this period, Mr. Ma Shengjun, deputy director of the company, performed the duties of the general manager on his behalf.
On the evening of July 23, 2021, Keller Technology issued a major risk warning for the first time, saying that the balance of prepayment for the company's private network communication business was RMB 6.227 billion, including the overdue supply contract amount of upstream suppliers of RMB 1.151 billion, and the company has filed a lawsuit.
On the same day, Kaile technology announced that the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a supervision letter, requiring Kaile technology to verify the private network communication business model, business essence, upstream and downstream relationships, capital and goods exchanges, current development, and whether there are major adverse changes as soon as possible, carefully figure out and evaluate various risk exposures, and make announcements in a timely, comprehensive and accurate manner.
On the evening of August 15, 2021, Kaile Science And Technology Co.Ltd.Hubei(600260) disclosed that due to the suspension of private network communication business, it is expected that it will not be restored in the short term. The company's stock will implement other risk warnings from August 17, and the stock abbreviation will be changed from "Kaile technology" to " Kaile Science And Technology Co.Ltd.Hubei(600260) ".
As of the announcement, the prepayment of Kaile Science And Technology Co.Ltd.Hubei(600260) private network communication business is 6.227 billion yuan, the accounts receivable is 52 million yuan, the inventory is 218 million yuan, the overdue supply contract amount is 4.514 billion yuan (according to the amount of purchase contract signed), and the remaining 1.713 billion yuan contract has the risk that the overdue supply and prepayment cannot be recovered in full.
8 . The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, and bank stocks collectively fell
The three major US stock indexes closed mixed on Friday, with the S & P 500 index up 0.08%, the NASDAQ up 0.59% and the Dow down 0.56%. Most popular Chinese stocks rose, pinduoduo rose by more than 4%, Jingdong and BiliBili rose by more than 3%. Gambling stocks rose, with sands group up more than 14% and Yongli resort up more than 8%. Bank stocks fell collectively, JPMorgan Chase fell more than 6%, Morgan Stanley fell more than 3%, Goldman Sachs fell more than 2%, Citigroup and Bank of America fell more than 1%.
latest research and judgment of top ten securities companies
1, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching
The collapse of high-level conglomerates is the main reason for the sharp fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the year. It is expected that investors' confidence in steady growth policies and economic stabilization will continue to strengthen, and market sentiment will be boosted with the redefinition of the main line of steady growth. The starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching, and it is expected to appear before the festival.
First of all, the rapid adjustment of high-level conglomerates has induced investors to "cut high to low" and reduce positions. Concerns about the strength of steady growth policies have induced mutual position exchange, resulting in the main line confusion in the first half of the month, but the market has passed the most panic point of sentiment, and what is missing is the consensus on the main line direction.
Secondly, we expect that the centralized landing of last year's economic data will make the market form more consistent expectations for this year's steady growth, the formation of policy synergy is on the way, and the market's economic expectations for 2022 will be gradually revised.
Finally, incremental funds began to stabilize and resume inflow. The clarification of the main line of stable growth will significantly improve market sentiment. It is expected that the starting point of the market in the first half of the year before the festival. It is suggested to continue to focus on the "three low positions".
Specifically, it includes: varieties whose fundamentals are expected to remain low, focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as vehicle, lithium battery cell, photovoltaic equipment , tax exemption and entertainment content consumption whose fundamentals are expected to remain low; For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, Hong Kong stock Internet leaders after the impact of China stock market, and fine chemical enterprises with new business capabilities such as new materials; High boom varieties with relatively low stock prices after adjustment, such as intelligent driving, auto parts , and semiconductor equipment, power semiconductor, xinchuangyi and military industry driven by localization logic.
2, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: the current popular track is accumulating strength to regain the rally
L overseas liquidity panic eased, US bonds and US stocks stopped falling and turned into shock
U.S. debt and U.S. equity turned into shock this week, and the market may have gradually digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates and shrinking tables within this year and accelerate monetary normalization. In the last round of the Fed's interest rate increase and table contraction process, after the first interest rate increase and table contraction accelerated, it had the greatest impact on the global stock market and capital liquidity. Therefore, before the market expects the fed to announce interest rate hike in March, investors' fear of liquidity tightening may be in a relatively stable state, and the market will also usher in a window period of time.
L the marginal improvement of internal liquidity and the release of transaction congestion to a certain extent
In terms of internal environment, liquidity has improved marginally recently. Next Monday, 500 billion MLF will expire. We are concerned about the possibility of renewing the interest rate cut. Credit easing and structural monetary policy are worth looking forward to. In the two weeks since this year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 13 billion, of which the allocation type has reached 11.4 billion, and the net inflow has been into the new energy sector for nine consecutive trading days. At present, the proportion of turnover of popular tracks has dropped significantly. The continuous verification of the high prosperity of the plate by superimposing the performance forecast is accumulating strength to regain the rise.
L looking for sources of excess returns: focus on business elasticity or valuation elasticity
At present, the prosperity of popular tracks (new energy vehicles / photovoltaic / semiconductor / military industry, etc.) is driven by the industry cycle rather than the economic environment. There is still much room to improve the penetration rate, and some industries gradually have the logic of globalization. After this round of adjustment, the worries about the high valuation of the sector have been alleviated to a large extent, and the performance growth rate of 30% + is still very attractive. Supported by the fundamentals that the high boom runs through at least the first half of the year, we are still optimistic about the overall industrial development and relative income performance. Looking forward to the later stage, the source of excess return may lie in the subdivision links of business continuity or even further upward, as well as the incremental investment opportunities brought by the evolution of industrial trend. Focus on: military industry, photovoltaic (midstream and downstream) / new energy operation, new energy vehicles (power cells / intelligent parts), semiconductors (IGBT / materials / equipment).
On the other hand, specialized, special and new - prosperous small and medium-sized markets welcome the opportunity of industrial upgrading. Based on its relatively low valuation level (corresponding to high valuation elasticity) and the proportion of institutional positions, it is also expected to become another source of excess returns.
L risk tip: steady growth policy is lower than expected, inflation is higher than expected, and US stocks fluctuate
3. CICC | A shares: entanglement between "steady growth" and "growth style
Since the beginning of the year, the performance of A-Shares has been relatively low, and the sector has generally fallen. Only a few sectors such as banking, real estate and agriculture have made slight positive gains, which may be due to several reasons: first, from the perspective of China's environment, the growth has not seen significant improvement, and investors pay close attention to the strength and rhythm of policy implementation; Second, the spread of the epidemic at home and abroad has accelerated recently, and there is great pressure on epidemic prevention and control in major cities in China. Investors are cautious about the recovery of consumption, especially during the Spring Festival; Third, since the beginning of the year, major global markets have fallen more or less, and the U.S. monetary policy has tightened. Individual investors are also worried that this will affect the risk appetite of a shares.
We expect that the above factors may still affect the market sentiment in the near future, but we think there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the medium term. At present, the means of "steady growth" of China's policy is still being gradually implemented. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous introduction of "steady growth" policy details and the gradual stabilization of China's growth, the market sentiment is expected to be repaired; The current policies of China and the United States are "reverse". The United States pays more attention to "inflation", while China is coping with the problem of "stagnation". Under this background, the impact of U.S. monetary policy and market fluctuations on A-Shares may be relatively limited. Recently, northward funds still maintain a net capital inflow for two consecutive weeks.
The "growth style" with poor early performance has stabilized recently. We believe that the sharp decline of "growth style" may come to an end, but we may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom; Although the "steady growth" style has been corrected this week, there may be room for performance in the future. We still maintain the previous "steady growth" style, which may last until about the end of the first quarter, which may be the turning point for the style to return to the growth style more obviously.
Industry configuration suggestions: the steady growth style may continue, and the manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround
1) areas potentially supported by marginal change or development of policies, including industrial chains related to stable demand for infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc;
2) for the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation and hotels, etc;
3) the short-term share price of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be suppressed, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
The above three directions may overlap slightly, of which the first direction is more phased and needs to pay more attention to the policy rhythm.
4. Monarch strategy: bottom asymptotic
general trend study and judgment: the bottom is approaching, waiting for the new year. this week, the market continued the downward trend of shock, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.63%. Under the convergence of negative factors, the market will still face periodic pressure. However, considering that the current market transaction congestion is significantly lower than that at the beginning of 2021, we believe that negative feedback is difficult to form → the market has a bottom, and the bargain hunting layout is waiting for the Spring Festival. 1) the current intensive deduction of negative factors: negative disturbance at the denominator is the core contradiction of the recent market. On the one hand, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December released a strong hawkish signal, which affected the rapid rise of the yield of 10-year us bonds. On the basis of the market's consistent expectation of China's broad currency in the first half of the year, the impact of overseas disturbance on market liquidity expectation has been marginally amplified. On the other hand, the superposition of real estate credit risk and Omicron exacerbates the pressure of epidemic control in China, so that the risk preference at the denominator is still suppressed. 2) but the market has a bottom down: the current market congestion is low → the possibility of stampede is low → the market has a bottom down, which is not comparable with the market in February 2021. After the Spring Festival, the negative factors with overseas liquidity risk as the core will be gradually implemented and digested. At the same time, with the successive completion of the change of provincial Party and government organs, the steady growth policy will be gradually promoted and strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually recover. On the whole, bargain hunting layout years ago, waiting for the Spring Festival.
at present, there are two core contradictions that dominate the operation of the market: 1) China's liquidity expectations are gradually consistent, but overseas liquidity expectations will continue to fluctuate, which has become an important factor affecting the rhythm of market operation. from the perspective of marginal change, the current market expectations for China's liquidity are relatively consistent. Although there are still some differences in specific operation, there are no differences on the wide currency rhythm. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2022, under the influence of multi factors such as cross year capital pressure, steady growth pressure and real estate risk, it is possible to reduce the reserve requirement once or twice again, and the MLF interest rate window is also reduced in the first half of the year. However, overseas liquidity is expected to remain in high volatility, which will become an important factor affecting the rhythm of market operation. On Monday, Powell said that after the Fed took measures to achieve normalization and "this is a long road to normality", the market warmed up, but then many Fed officials continued to hawk, and the global equity market re adjusted. In the future, with the month on month acceleration of wage rise and the disturbance of supply chain problems, the inflation pressure is still high before the interest rate meeting in March, and the overseas liquidity expectation is still in an unstable state. 2) the most dangerous moment of real estate credit risk has not passed, and overseas bonds will face a severe test when they mature on a large scale in the first quarter. since January, there have been thunderstorms and frequent work stoppages in real estate. This week, the real estate chain led the decline in the whole market, which also shows that the market is still worried about real estate risks. Looking back, in the first quarter, the debt repayment of real estate enterprises will usher in a peak, of which the maturity of overseas bonds will be US $19.25 billion, further increasing the risk.
style switching, water flows to low. 1) In the short term, the market is accelerating the high-low switching. the recent structural market has gradually shown the characteristics of high-low switching. Since the beginning of January, the low price to book ratio index and low price to earnings ratio index have increased by 1.76% and 1.26% respectively, while the corresponding high price to book ratio index and high price to earnings ratio index have decreased by - 8.16% and - 6.81% respectively. At present, the negative expected impact of overseas liquidity is superimposed on the low risk appetite. We believe that the market style will accelerate the switch to the undervalued style. 2) from the medium-term perspective, we should also grasp the valuation repair direction under the improvement of fundamentals. from the medium-term perspective, with the weakening of profit contribution in 2022, the excess return of the market will also come from valuation repair. At the same time, considering the limitations of loose expected time and space, so that the valuation end does not have the basis for comprehensive lifting, we should focus on the direction of valuation repair, and the positive feedback mechanism of fundamentals will further determine the slope of valuation repair.
industry configuration: 1) consumption: Pig / household appliances / furniture and social service / Tourism / Baijiu and other directions; 2) Infrastructure: building materials / construction / power operation; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
5. Haitong strategy: why will the spring market not be absent?
① the steady growth policy has been intensively implemented, and the market will eventually rise by learning from the historical steady growth policy.
② in the first quarter, there are often more funds entering the market, which comes from the year-end bonus distribution of employees and the peak season of asset management product distribution.
③ the adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the market trend in spring, the structure is balanced, and the underestimated large finance + new and old infrastructure with policy force.
6. West China strategy: a watershed or after the Spring Festival, ready to go
Since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have been disturbed by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, and the characteristics of the "spring lack" market are more obvious. Near the Spring Festival, in view of the uncertainty of overseas news during the holiday, some off-site funds stay on the sidelines, and the market may be light. The watershed or after the Spring Festival. At that time, the path of the Fed's interest rate increase will be clearer, and China's liquidity will remain abundant. At the same time, the steady growth policy related to infrastructure and real estate investment continued to work, which became the driving force for A-Shares to get out of the "cold spring". Considering that China's monetary policy is loose and the valuation of A-Shares is reasonable on the whole, incremental foreign investment is also expected to continue to flow into the A-share market. In terms of configuration, it mainly focuses on "undervalued blue chip":
First, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials;
Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy.
Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
7. The strategy of developing securities: "mini version 2014" is brewing, and the timing depends on the wide credit process
The market fluctuation this week is mainly due to the fluctuation of policy expectations, poor social finance data in December, and rising concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase or even contraction. Similar to the initial stage of the bull market in 2014, there were adjustments in August and late September due to the lower than expected macro data. In October, there was a significant correction due to the superposition of factors such as the announcement of the withdrawal of qe4 by the Federal Reserve and the extension of Shanghai Stock connect. However, the market is gradually established in the hesitation of the market and the rise of the index. At present, we believe that a wave of market similar to "mini version 2014" is brewing, and its timing depends on the wide credit process.
8. Western strategy: the market is still in a "cooling off period" and will fully recover after the Spring Festival
At present, it is still a calm period after "winter agitation". Due to the pre positioning of monetary and fiscal policies, the emergence of macro liquidity inflection point and the performance vacuum period after the release of the third quarterly report, the market has been restless. At present, with the realization of macro logic, listed companies return to the performance disclosure period, and the market is returning to calm. On the whole, there is no systemic risk in the market, but it still needs to wait for the market to recover after the Spring Festival.
From the perspective of market structure, since the beginning of the year, the market style has begun to change greatly, especially some popular tracks have dropped greatly, while the performance of consumer goods and stable growth related industries is better. We believe that the core of such changes lies in the change of incremental funds this year, which is also the key to understand the main line of the market this year.
9. Livelihood Strategy: how long will it take for the value to return
The real opportunities and turning points of the market are at several key nodes: the confirmation of wide credit (non wide currency), the confirmation of fund liability side disturbance and the return of strong stocks to the historical average level. It should be noted that there is no "perfect bottom" in the market, which means that when some of the above factors are available, it should be a good time to intervene. Investors who need to stay in the market should gradually carry out structural adjustment and grasp a more certain path in demand recovery (inflation itself). We believe more in the scenario that inflation certainty will be stronger than demand itself when demand stabilizes and picks up, and the two will jointly drive the return of value. Recommended layout: nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper and gold), crude oil chain (oil service and oil transportation), real estate, banking, coal and electricity. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization and county consumption (brand clothing and digital government affairs).
10. Investment promotion strategy: what is the market worried about? What's the turn?
Since the beginning of the year, multi factor resonance has exacerbated investors' concerns, resulting in large fluctuations and adjustments in a shares:
1) the market incremental capital is less than expected; 2) The market's expectation of steady growth is high, but the monetary policy is not significantly loose. Due to the slow progress of special bond issuance, investors feel less about steady growth than expected; 3) The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table will accelerate the rise of US bond yields to the dangerous area; 4) The epidemic situation in China has been increasing; 5) Social finance is less than expected and credit demand is weak. Looking forward to the future stage, the local two sessions will be held in mid and late January. It is expected that more policies to stabilize economic growth will be launched to clarify and firm the market's expectations for steady growth.
Monetary policy may be further relaxed until the growth rate of new social finance significantly improves, showing the force of steady growth, which will bring a turnaround for a shares.
In the short term, there may be a structural rebound in a shares, which can be arranged along the direction where the performance forecast exceeds expectations (basic chemical industry, electronics, power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals), continue to benefit from the steady growth of relevant sectors, and use the adjustment to increase positions. Steady growth direction in addition to the layout of the undervalued repair market in traditional fields, we should also focus on the layout of new infrastructure. During the year, more attention can be paid to depressions with low configuration and low expected undervalued value.
