20192021, the stock market has had more incremental capital inflows for three consecutive years. Since the beginning of the year, due to the adjustment of the stock market, the incremental capital has decreased significantly. In terms of marginal change, it is much worse than that in the past three years. However, if we consider the amount of stock funds, it is still very large, which is completely different from 2018. Historically, bull market highs generally correspond to the highs of almost all types of funds. The highest issuance of public funds is completely consistent with the high point of the index. However, the peak of equity fund issuance this time is Q1 in 2021, and the index quickly enters the bear market in early 2022. Since the beginning of the year, the main selling forces have been absolute income funds, leveraged funds and foreign capital, while insurance funds have entered against the market. The different behaviors of different types of funds lead to the more complex capital structure of the stock market this time. According to the experience of US stocks, a more complex capital structure is conducive to the phased inflow of different funds and prolong the bull market. At the same time, due to the increase of leverage funds and absolute return funds, the bear market will be faster and shorter. In the short term, there is a bottom area similar to Q4 in 2018, and there may still be local tail risk after the rebound. Strategically, 2022 may be a V-shaped shock, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019
(1) the overall capital status is similar to that in the second half of 2015, with a large stock of funds 20192021, the stock market has had more incremental capital inflows for three consecutive years. Since the beginning of the year, due to the adjustment of the stock market, the incremental capital has decreased significantly. In terms of marginal change, it is much worse than that in the past three years. However, if we consider the amount of stock funds, it is still very large, which is completely different from 2018. From the second half of 2015 to 2018, the stock market funds decreased for three consecutive years, so by 2018, the amount of stock funds was very small. Although the first half of 2022 is a bear market and a lot of funds leave the market, the amount of funds in stock is still large. A similar situation can be compared with q4-2016 in 2015. Due to the large amount of stock funds, although the index adjustment is large, there are still local hot spots, which are very active.
(2) compared with the bear market in history, the decline of fund positions is smaller compared with the previous bear market, the position adjustment range of public funds this time is small, and the position of Q1 partial stock hybrid funds decreased by an average of 2 percentage points. In the corresponding 2018 bear market, the position of partial stock hybrid funds rapidly adjusted from 87% at the beginning of the year to 76.9% at the end of the year. Even compared with Q2 or Q3 in 2018, the decline range of current positions is much smaller. Q3's position also fell sharply in 2015.
We believe that this special situation may be because the high point of the new fund issuance is out of sync with the high point of the index. The high point of public fund issuance in 2015 is exactly the same as the high point of public fund issuance in 2015. At the beginning of 2018, although the fund issuance was much less than the bull market in 2015, it was also higher than that in 20162017. However, the peak of equity fund issuance this time is Q1 in 2021, and the index quickly entered the bear market in early 2022. Generally speaking, due to the problems of impulse and customer recognition, the redemption pressure will be greater after the new fund enters the redeemable period. The high point of the new development fund is not synchronized with the high point of the index, resulting in less pressure on the redemption of stock funds and less pressure on forced position reduction.
(3) more complex investor structure is conducive to the market becoming short and long since the beginning of the year, the main selling forces with drastic market adjustment may be absolute income funds, leveraged funds and foreign capital. During this period, insurance funds flowed in against the market. The different behaviors of different types of funds have led to a more complex capital structure in the stock market this time. According to the experience of US stocks, a more complex capital structure is conducive to the phased inflow of different funds, but is more conducive to prolonging the bull market. Due to the increase of leveraged funds and absolute return funds, the bear market will be faster and shorter.
(4) short term strategy: similar to the bottom area of Q4 in 2018 due to the large adjustment in the early stage, the market has rebounded steadily since the end of April. The strength of the rebound mainly comes from three points: oversold + improvement of epidemic data + landing of risk in the first quarterly report. The risk in the interim report has not been opened. The first force has been fulfilled, and the second force will be divided into two steps. The first step is the improvement of epidemic data, most of which has been fulfilled, and the second step is the improvement of macro data, This may take some time to appear. Strategically, 2022 may be a V-shaped shock. The first half of the year is similar to 2018 and the second half is similar to 2019. Tactically, it is the bottom area similar to Q4 in 2018. Most of the risks have been released, but there are several small tail risks: the economic and medium-term report difference in the second quarter and the risk of US economic recession. Last week's LPR interest rate cut is a very important change, which is conducive to driving China's interest rate to a higher level. It is a very important basic force for the market to reverse in the second half of the year. In the next quarter, we will focus on observing whether China's interest rate will go down. Once it goes down, the rebound is likely to turn into reversal.
industry allocation suggestions: in the next six months, there will be two major changes in the factors affecting industry allocation: (1) the stock market has entered the late bear market, close to the early bear to bull period, and the capital activity and risk appetite of the stock market will return to a certain extent. According to the experience of the late bear market and the early bull market in history, the oversold growth consumption may rebound well. It is suggested to pay attention to the Internet and media of Hong Kong stocks, In consumption, we can pay attention to the falling household appliances, and begin to allocate more non bank in finance. (2) After the epidemic, investors began to gradually expect economic recovery. In the short term, they expected to return to work after the epidemic. In the medium term, they focused on whether the steady growth can be effective. Once the improvement of real estate sales can be observed, the stage of the economic cycle will change from steady growth expectation to economic recovery expectation, and the style will also change. The construction and real estate related to steady growth can be oversupplied to the stabilization of real estate sales.
