Encourage the automobile consumption team to add new forces. Last night, the official of Qingdao announced the opening of the theme consumption activity. When buying cars, can enjoy a one-time subsidy of 3 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan according to different models and different prices
Last week, the news of “automobile going to the countryside” boosted the market. Many industry insiders said that the automobile going to the countryside policy is expected to be introduced in early June, and the subsidy range of each vehicle for vehicles with models less than 150000 yuan (including fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles) may be Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan. For the above rumors, the China Automobile Association refuted the rumors.
However, since May, the policy of encouraging automobile consumption has already “blossomed” all over the country Guangdong implements the policy of replacing the old with the new, with a subsidy of 10000 yuan / vehicle for scrapped old vehicles and 5000 yuan / vehicle for fuel vehicles. In addition, Hainan, Tianjin and other places have issued relevant policies, including consumption subsidies, increasing car purchase indicators, consumption vouchers and so on.
Under the policy warm wind, A-share vehicle concept stocks strengthened, and Zhongtong Bus Co.Ltd(000957) , Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.Ltd(000868) and Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.Ltd(000868) rose on Friday. From the perspective of ‘ increased by more than 40% , Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) , Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) etc. increased by more than 30%.
Analysts said that the successive introduction of incentive policies, may become an important variable for the recovery of passenger car terminal retail after the epidemic 2022: from January to April, China’s automobile sales volume was 7.691 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%; Among them, in april, the automobile sales decreased by 47.6% year-on-year , which was mainly affected by the epidemic in Shanghai and other places, and the automobile production and sales were limited.
In addition, the impact of the war on the profitability of Russian and Ukrainian metals. In the first quarter of 2022, the industry realized a revenue of 745.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 26.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%. The gross profit margin of Q1 industry is at a low level in recent 4 years.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Huang Xili believes that compared with the automobile stimulus policies in previous years, there are two relatively good levels in 2022. With the continuous shortage of chips, more brand inventories are at a low level ; The monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles is close to 30%, which is better than that in 2020. Q1 is worried about new energy market demand new energy market.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of passenger Association previously said that the shortage of new energy vehicles intensified in April, and estimated that the orders of undelivered new energy vehicles were between Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) and 800000 according to the public information in March, 140000 orders of 300 great wall tanks have not been delivered Byd Company Limited(002594) accumulated 400000 undelivered orders.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Tu Yiting believes that in the incentive policy, liberalizing the purchase of cars will boost the sales of passenger cars across the country. Refer to the range of quota liberalization of 20000 and 10000 in Guangzhou and Shenzhen assuming that the newly increased quotas in various regions are 50% and 30% of the original quotas respectively, then the sales of passenger cars in China will increase by 2% and 1.1% year-on-year respectively the overall boost amplitude is limited, but the certainty is good.
The consumption subsidy of trade in will also activate the demand for new cars. Tu Yiting believes that the budget increase for consumers to buy models is generally 5 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000 yuan, so models with 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 yuan will benefit first, this price band is the main battlefield of China’s independent brands.
On April 26, Geely released the PHEV model Dihao l Raytheon power hi · x, priced at 129800145800 yuan. Analysts believe that it is expected to replicate the successful path of Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin plus DM-I in the price range of 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 50000 yuan.
Under the intelligent electrification, independent brand prices continue to move forward to “2 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 50000 yuan”. at present, those with monthly sales of more than 10000 vehicles include great wall tank-300 and Geely Xingyue. Analysts believe that under the same gross profit, high-end models will more than double the average 100000 range models
automobile raw material prices are showing signs of inflection point in auto parts, copper, aluminum, steel and other bulk metal raw materials usually account for 35% – 80% of the cost. As of May 16, the latest quotation of main raw materials has dropped compared with the end of March, of which aluminum, lithium carbonate, natural rubber and PVC decreased by 9.4%, 8.2%, 7.7% and 5.8% respectively.
Insiders said that the impact of bulk prices on the parts industry chain will be gradually reduced in the future, which is good for companies with high raw material costs represented by die-casting
Taking Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) in the field of lightweight as an example, its raw materials are mainly aluminum. In 2021, the operating cost accounts for 76% of the total revenue, and the direct materials account for 65.86% of the total cost, that is, only the direct materials account for 50% of the revenue
Zhang Chenghang of Huachuang Securities believes that the gross profit margin of auto parts and complete vehicles in the past two years has been negatively affected by the rise in the price of raw materials. In turn, whether it is the transfer of pressure from parts to the downstream or the decline in the price of raw materials, the recovery of profit margin has considerable flexibility.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) Lin Fan believes that the recovery elasticity behind depends on the decline in the price of upstream raw materials it is estimated that the production and sales of commercial vehicles in the second quarter are relatively better than those in other sub industries. The situation of whole year remains to be clarified by relevant national policies for steady growth
