What is the effect of previous policy incentives on the automobile industry? The data shows that the policy has been significantly inclined to new energy vehicles after 2015.
This week, the A-share market continued the counter offensive momentum since May. Under the bleak environment of the peripheral market, the A-share market once again showed strong toughness, which is by no means accidental.
Following the strong rise of the Shanghai index against the pressure of the sharp decline of US stocks on May 10, the market once again "despised" the impact of the sharp decline of US stocks on Thursday. The Shanghai index showed a trend of opening low and going high all day. The Shanghai index returned to above 3100 points, and more than 3400 stocks in the two cities rose. This Friday, known as "smart money", northbound funds also sounded the horn of "counterattack", with a net purchase of 14.236 billion, a new high this year. At the same time, the data show that since 5 month, northbound funds have greatly increased their positions in new energy
northward capital increased greatly, and the automobile industry chain took the lead in recovery
From the continuous independent market of a shares, we can see that under the improvement of the following multiple factors, investor confidence has begun to recover gradually.
five-year LPR has been continuously adjusted recently, reflecting the policy intention of boosting stimulus compared with reducing the one-year interest rate, reducing the five-year interest rate has a more obvious effect on the current working capital interest rate and short-term interest rate. The A-share market also made a positive response on Friday. Of course, Friday's rise has many factors. Among them, the down-regulation of LPR should be said to be an important driving factor.
On the one hand, the expectation that the United States will reduce tariffs on some Chinese goods was rekindled this week obviously, at present, the United States is eager to curb inflation. In addition to the Fed's interest rate hike, the "multi-point flowering" of other auxiliary means is urgent. From this point of view, there is a landing expectation for the reduction and exemption of tariffs imposed on China.
On the other hand, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and the Fed's interest rate hike on A-Shares has declined from the factors affecting the exchange rate, the cross-border capital flow is stable, and the sustained and rapid unilateral exchange rate fluctuation is difficult to sustain. At the same time, the net inflow trend of allocated foreign capital has resumed, and the game behavior of Chinese investors on the current round of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has also been completed in April and weakened significantly after May.
In terms of policies, the high-level Symposium this week stressed that policies have been issued and should be put in place as soon as possible, and the new measures that are accurate to all localities and departments can be exhausted from the wording, it is not difficult to find that the management's determination to stabilize the economy is quite firm. The above requirement is that the economic stabilization measures that can be used should be used as much as possible, and it is best to introduce them immediately. It can also be speculated that in the future, in addition to a series of measures taken by the central government, local governments will also actively introduce measures to stabilize the economy.
Moreover, Shanghai's key enterprises have achieved phased results in the resumption of work and production, which is also a major boost to the recovery of the market The continuous operation of oil supply and power supply in the city has been strongly supported, and the continuous operation of oil supply and power supply in the process of urban economy has also been effectively slowed down.
With the steady progress of the orderly resumption of work and production in the industry, this week, northbound funds were unable to control . On Wednesday, northbound funds increased their positions in complete vehicles, with a net purchase amount of 517 million yuan. At the same time, power equipment, rare metals and other new energy track sectors were the main force this week, with a net inflow of more than 1 billion yuan. With the help of capital, the auto industry chain took the lead in showing signs of recovery this week, and many sectors such as complete vehicles, auto parts and new energy vehicles continued to be active.
On the news side, many industry insiders said that the policy of going to the countryside for cars is expected to be introduced in early June. For cars with models less than 150000 yuan (including fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles), the subsidy range for each car may be 3000 yuan to 5000 yuan. Although the China Automobile Association refuted the rumor, the news of "cars going to the countryside" is not groundless. Recently, from central ministries and commissions to local cities, they have continuously issued industry incentive policies to actively stabilize the industrial chain, and the resilience of the automobile industry continues to show. According to statistics, as an important gathering place of automobile industry, Shanghai has officially resumed work and production of more than 100 industrial chain enterprises.
In this context, whether it is the automobile to the countryside or other planning, the introduction of relevant policies will give a great stimulus to the slightly tired automobile market. How big is the impact of this "stimulus" on the auto industry?
learn from history, new energy vehicles may open a new round of rising space
Since entering the 21st century, the automobile industry has experienced three major policy stimulus cycles, namely, 20082010, 20152017 and 20202021 taking history as a mirror, the effect of policy stimulus on automobile consumption is weakening year by year. At the same time, new energy vehicles are expected to usher in the rapid improvement of space
Summary and analysis of three automobile consumption stimulus policies in 2008 / 2015 / 2020
Data source: Gaishi automobile, passenger Association, traffic compulsory insurance, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Research Institute
It can be seen that these three rounds of strong stimulus policies have effectively improved China's auto sales, but the effect has gradually leveled off.
In 2008, in the context of the global financial crisis, car purchase subsidies, combined with policies such as going to the countryside and exchanging old cars for new ones, significantly stimulated consumption. Landing effect: in 2009, the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow high year-on-year.
In 2015, under the background of China's stock market downturn + real estate foam, the incentive effect of policies such as purchase tax preference and relaxation of license line was obvious. The sales volume of automobiles rebounded significantly in 2016.
In 2020, under the background of the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan, policies such as old car replacement subsidy, automobile going to the countryside and charging equipment subsidy can stimulate consumption. Landing effect: the rebound of 2020h2 automobile sales exceeds that of the consumer industry as a whole.
In terms of specific impact, the first two stimulus policies have a more significant effect on automobile consumption.
In the second half of 2008, the growth rate of automobile sales turned sharply downward, with an annual growth rate of 6.6%, significantly lower than 22.3% in 2007. After the launch of preferential purchase tax and the stimulation of automobile going to the countryside policy, 2009-2010 China's automobile sales achieved a leap forward growth , with sales growth of 45.5% and 32.5% respectively.
Since April 2015, the growth rate of automobile sales has decreased. In September of the same year, the State Council issued the policy of halving automobile purchase tax. After the implementation of the policy, the effect was immediate. After October 2015, the growth rate of automobile sales reversed year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.3% in October and 23.7% in November.
6 the annual growth rate of automobile sales in 2016 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than 4.6% in 2015
However, since the beginning of 2020, it has been affected by the epidemic and the high base of automobile production and marketing the stimulating effect of automobile going to the countryside in 2019 is not obvious. The growth rate of automobile sales in 2019-2021 is - 8.2%, - 1.9% and 3.8% respectively.
Compared with previous policy stimulus cycles, it is not difficult to see that under the background of the upward base of automobile production and sales, although the effect of policy stimulus still exists, the marginal utility has weakened. At the same time, it should be noted that after 2015, the policy has been significantly inclined to new energy vehicles
resumption of work "assembly number" sounded one after another, and new energy vehicles drove into the "fast lane"
The recognition of new energy in the sinking market is higher than that in the previous round of policy stimulus; On the other hand, the continued stimulation of the news and the resumption of work in the industry have boosted confidence, which are undoubtedly releasing the "recovery signal" of the new energy vehicle industry at the same time, many fund managers said that the sector has entered a better allocation period
news is stimulating on the surface although the China Automobile Association refuted the rumor on Thursday that "a new round of automobile going to the countryside policy is expected to be introduced in early June". However, the current epidemic situation in China has been repeated. Under the background of steady macroeconomic growth this year, as an important policy means to stabilize growth and promote consumption, the automobile to the countryside policy is still expected to be issued industry experts predict that going to the countryside will promote the sales of 20 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 fuel vehicles and 3 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 00000 new energy vehicles. At the beginning of this year, the prediction of China Automobile Association for 2022 shows that the total vehicle sales in 2022 is expected to be 27.5 million, including 23 million passenger cars and 5 million new energy vehicles. It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles may account for about 10% - 6% of the total sales volume in the countryside in the whole year, but the proportion of new energy vehicles may account for about 1% - 6%. The increment brought by the introduction of stimulus policies is mainly new energy vehicles
new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy is expected to continue in addition to sending cars to the countryside, insiders said this week that China is currently negotiating with carmakers to extend subsidies for new energy vehicles in order to maintain the growth of this key market. According to the original plan, the car subsidy will expire at the end of this year. According to the above sources, government departments, including the Ministry of industry and information technology, are considering continuing to provide subsidies to buyers of new energy vehicles in 2023.
In addition to the excitement of the news, auto industry resumption "rally" has also been sounded one after another Since 4 April, the industrial chain and supply chain of China's automobile industry have experienced tests, some enterprises have stopped production, logistics and transportation have been greatly hindered, and the production and supply capacity has declined sharply. Recently, key enterprises in Shanghai, Changchun and other places have resumed work and production, and a number of car enterprises are stepping up efforts to remedy the capacity gap. The further expansion of the area of enterprises returning to work and production is undoubtedly a good signal for the industry. It is believed that with the gradual return of control to normal and the help of policies, the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to steadily return to the normal level.
with the wave of electrification sweeping the whole automobile industry, although there are still many conflicting voices, the facts tell us that new energy vehicles have come to the fore, new energy vehicles are rising, and new energy vehicles are coming more fiercely under the impact of the epidemic, China's fuel vehicles suffered "late spring cold" in April, but the development momentum of new energy vehicles has not declined. According to the data, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in April were 312000 and 299000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9% and 44.6% respectively. Under the severe test of tight supply and demand pattern, new energy vehicles still show a strong development momentum.
For the sustainability of the rebound of the new energy vehicle sector in the A-share market and the opportunity of investment layout, many fund managers said that after substantial adjustment, the valuation and cost performance of some stocks have been very high. Under the background of the acceleration of the energy revolution, the new energy and electric vehicle industry with good long-term growth trend and high prospect is expected to usher in faster growth and development space.
