Under the local epidemic environment, gather the industrial development toughness from a multi-dimensional perspective. In terms of the proportion of sales volume, the new power of car making increased steadily in April 2022. From the perspective of supply side layout, the high-value segment of new energy vehicles and the rhythm of new car sales of popular models are constant. Offline + online comprehensive observation, offline 4S stores expand against the trend through consumption upgrading + sinking and new forces of urban car making; Online observation shows that consumers of head models have increased against the trend. From a global perspective, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) has a clear advantage in the toughness of supply side development, and the product layout of supply side companies is leading the world.
Analysis on sales volume of models in April: the comparative advantage of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile leader continues to improve. Compared with the first three months of 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in April was 277254, with a year-on-year increase of 47% and a month on month decrease of 39%. However, comparing the market share of the new forces of car making with that of Byd Company Limited(002594) , when the market was impacted by the local epidemic, the comparable sales volume of the industry’s leading enterprises showed a clear comparative advantage. The overall share of the new forces was 6.3% and that of Byd Company Limited(002594) was 38.04%. Compared with the same period level of our prediction model, the share of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car leader Byd Company Limited(002594) was higher than expected, and the new forces of car making remained basically stable. At the same time, Chang’an Volkswagen has achieved a small increase in market share, and the development toughness advantages of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile front-line enterprises are clear.
Model supply analysis in April: the penetration rate of electrification in the whole market has increased, leading enterprises have accelerated the supply layout of high-quality models, and the supply of models in low price belt and core price belt has increased. Referring to the new launch data of e-Car and auto home in April, new energy vehicles accounted for 61.54% of new models, with a month on month increase of nearly 13pcts, and continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend. It is particularly noteworthy that the increased penetration of the supply side of new energy vehicles benefited more from the drive of Nezha, GAC and Byd Company Limited(002594) . In terms of price, the proportion of models below 100000 in April was 26.67%, which continued to increase compared with the beginning of the year, with a month on month increase of nearly 4pcts. For the core price band of 15 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000, the proportion of new car supply was 33%, which continued to remain the best. On the whole, the short-term supply of new cars in the high price belt (350000 +) decreased, and 30 China Tianying Inc(000035) 0000 remained relatively stable. Under the impact of local epidemic, the supply side continues to maintain diversified vehicle supply.
Offline new energy vehicle store layout & online new energy vehicle consumption hot spots observation: the layout of key cities has been steadily improved, the sinking layout has begun to take shape, and the online intelligence of domestic new energy vehicles has been continuously improved. Referring to Baidu map and Tencent map, in 23 key economic cities, new forces of car making, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla have 508 stores in the business center, including 134 Weilai and Xiaopeng and 68 Byd Company Limited(002594) 68. For nearly 100 sample cities with consumption sinking, there are 124 stores in the business center of new forces of car making, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla, including 39 Xiaopeng, 35 Weilai and 26 ideal. From the online consumer mental data, referring to bilibilibili’s keyword feedback on searching ” Byd Company Limited(002594) ” and “Tesla“, from 2020-1 to 2022-4, Byd Company Limited(002594) related important UPS increased from 65 to 1101, Tesla from 277 to 1785, and from the monthly section view statistics, under the same data caliber, Byd Company Limited(002594) increased from 2.8 million in 2020-1 to 26.53 million in 2022-4, and Tesla from 13.09 million to 37 million.
Although Byd Company Limited(002594) is still lower than Tesla in terms of absolute quantity, the increase rate of Byd Company Limited(002594) by nearly 840% is significantly higher than that of Tesla by 182%. The comprehensive layout of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile leading enterprises offline continues to improve.
Comparative observation on the competitiveness of the global supply side: the supply side is comprehensively dominant, and the optional advantages of price band distribution are clear. Referring to the statistics of overseas website cars on the North American market, during Q1 2022, the proportion of new energy vehicles has reached 42%, an increase of 48.8% compared with the whole year of 2021. Compared with the same period, North America has a significant advantage in the electrification penetration rate of 6.0% on the supply side. China mainly focuses on medium and low-end models, and the price band focuses on models below 200000 yuan. Models below 200000 yuan account for 73.9% in 2022q1. The North American market focuses on medium and high-end models, with models above $60000 accounting for more than 50%, which is not conducive to the early growth of the market.
Risk factors: incomplete statistics of new models; Incomplete statistics of store data; Relevant videos of station B are not completely covered.
