According to the data of business agency, as of May 20, the spot reference price of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) grade polycrystalline silicon (or "silicon material") in China was 220000 yuan / ton, up 106.25% year-on-year and 25% this year.
Driven by the continuous rise of polysilicon prices, the operating performance of Listed Companies in the silicon wafer sector in the A-share market has also been rapidly improved.
Analysts expect that in the short term in the future, the upstream polysilicon enterprises will make huge profits by benefiting from the unabated demand for photovoltaic power generation terminals. Silicon wafer enterprises with strong cost conduction ability will also benefit from the increase of gross profit caused by the rise of polysilicon price, and the industrial investment value deserves attention.
polysilicon demand release pushes up prices
Under the background of the national strategic goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization", the photovoltaic industry continues to be in a high boom state, and the market demand for polysilicon, its upstream raw material, is rapidly released. Due to the slow expansion of production capacity during the year, the price of polysilicon continues to be high.
ye Yindan, a researcher of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that since this year, the release progress of China's polysilicon production capacity has been slower than expected, adding that the import of overseas silicon materials has been blocked due to poor transportation, and China's polysilicon supply has not increased much. At the same time, although some silicon wafer enterprises in the downstream are short of raw materials due to the epidemic and logistics factors, and the operating rate has decreased, the release of new production capacity has made up for the silicon wafer gap, so that the overall demand for polysilicon remains at a high level.
According to Ye Yindan, photovoltaic production is divided into four links: silicon material, silicon wafer, battery and module. The continuous rise in polysilicon prices has led to another high point in silicon wafer prices, which has strong support for silicon wafer enterprises to maintain a high start-up rate. The middle reaches of silicon wafers, batteries and components attracted a large number of companies because of the short production expansion cycle and high gross profit margin, resulting in the continuous increase of upstream polysilicon demand in the short term and the rapid rise of prices.
Liu Cunxin, assistant manager of Rongzhi investment fund, told the Securities Daily that 90% of polysilicon consumption comes from the photovoltaic industry. From a global perspective, it has benefited from the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry. Especially in recent years, under the background that major countries in the world are actively implementing the strategic goal of decarbonization, superimposed on the global demand for electricity and the improvement of photovoltaic technology level, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic outside China has continued to reach a new high, In the first quarter of 2022, China's newly installed photovoltaic units and cumulative exports of photovoltaic modules increased by more than 100% year-on-year.
According to the reporter of Securities Daily, benefiting from the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, many Chinese enterprises have been making continuous efforts to expand the production capacity of polysilicon since this year.
For example, the Secretary of Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) said in reply to investors' inquiries at SSE e interactive that the capacity of Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) polysilicon remained at 66000 tons / year in the first quarter, and the capacity would increase in the following quarters, and the total capacity of the company would reach 200000 tons / year by the end of 2022.
For the future price trend of polysilicon, Ye Yindan said: "according to the latest production and operation plan of Chinese foreign silicon materials and silicon wafer enterprises in May, the supply and demand of polysilicon are increasing and higher than expected, reaching 67 Shantui Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000680) 00 tons (including output and import) respectively And 70 Shandong Xinneng Taishan Power Generation Co.Ltd(000720) 00 tons, and the overall supply is still less than the demand. In addition, the silicon wafer production link is also affected by the epidemic, and there is a phased supply shortage, which supports its price to exceed the historical high and continue the rising trend. Therefore, judging from the market supply and demand and price transmission of silicon wafer production, the price of polysilicon will continue the current trend in the short term. "
silicon sector investment value is optimistic
It is noteworthy that benefiting from the sustained high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, the operation of enterprises in the industry has also been greatly improved.
According to the data of choice financial terminal, the four listed companies in the silicon wafer sector (classified by Shenwan industry) in the A-share market achieved year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company in the first quarter of 2022, and the top growth rate of Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) even reached 640.85%.
For the future investment value of silicon wafer sector and overall photovoltaic sector, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that the upstream silicon industry is the most promising in all links of photovoltaic. Driven by the dual drive of photovoltaic and semiconductor production expansion, the silicon price will remain high in the short term.
"Energy infrastructure is less affected by the epidemic, and photovoltaic installation is a relatively higher growth branch of energy infrastructure. It is suggested to pay attention to overseas revenue, especially companies with a high proportion of revenue in Europe." Zhao Yuanyuan said
Yang Ruyi, partner of Chunshi group, believes that the unabated demand of terminal power generation enterprises has always been one of the factors supporting the price rise of polysilicon, resulting in the redistribution of profits of photovoltaic industry among upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. It is expected that in the short term, the upstream silicon material enterprises will make huge profits, and the midstream silicon wafer enterprises will have strong cost conduction ability, benefit from the rising price of polysilicon, and the gross profit will also rise significantly.
According to Yang Ruyi, the supply of polysilicon will increase significantly in 2023, and the price will also fall sharply. At that time, the living environment of downstream battery chip and component enterprises will be greatly improved, while upstream silicon material and silicon chip enterprises may start a "price war". From the perspective of long-term investment, the overall prospect of photovoltaic sector deserves attention.
