Seeking for certainty of new material sector: αβα Sandwich structure long-term technical trend determination + medium-term growth attribute + short-term performance elasticity 1 Long term certainty: the bottom support of sandwich structure is not limited to the company's view of the material itself. It matches the downstream cost reduction and efficiency increase requirements brought by the characteristics of the material itself (physical, mechanical, apparent properties, etc.), coordinates the product progress direction, and conforms to the certainty of national development strategic objectives; The certainty of long life cycle brought by technological progress, pattern evolution and product iteration.
Based on long-term certainty, we have sorted out 9 new material technology directions with long-term certainty trend: ① fine powder: excellent industrial grade raw materials, "differential"
For better "integration"; ② magnetic material: the core material under the background of energy efficiency improvement and an important channel for the law of electromagnetic induction to industrial production; ③ adsorbent: inseparable "separation", Important track of incubation platform company ④ precious metal catalyst: the "heart" of chemical reaction process ⑤ packaging material: an important link linking the standardization of industrial process ⑥ microwave absorbing stealth material: national security stealth armor ⑦ superalloy: key material for engine upgrading ⑧ titanium alloy: key component for building aerospace equipment ⑨ carbon fiber: lighter and stronger dual-purpose material for military and civil use
\u3000\u30002. The general growth path of new material companies is divided into three stages: from 0 to 1, pay more attention to the track growth rate, then look at the technical barrier & first mover advantage, and from 1 to 100, look at the extension ability. ① From 0 to 1, the track growth rate is more important than the valuation. The track growth rate is the core at the initial stage of the company's growth, and the downstream prosperity + product penetration improvement + domestic substitution is the troika. ② After that, technical barrier + first mover advantage is the key moat: the head company is expected to receive the first wave of know-how dividend. The continuous overweight of technology R & D and the continuous R & D and development of new products are important strategies for the industry to maintain high gross profit; On the other hand, the head company's first mover advantage or the first to benefit from the second wave of capital dividends, through listing financing + fixed increase + issuance of convertible bonds and other ways to achieve production expansion + cost reduction and efficiency increase + iterative development of new products, so as to promote the improvement of industry concentration and company market share. ③ From 1 to 100, the extension of platform / integration determines the growth boundary: the starting point of new materials is the technology and process of material preparation, and the core of platform expansion is the reusability of preparation technology and the synergy of product matrix; The core of integration extension is the vertical layout of the industrial chain and the ability of resource integration.
\u3000\u30003. Short term certainty (the apparent appearance of sandwich structure, focusing on the change of marginal profitability from micro indicators) ① the decline of raw material price + the unblocked channel of price increase is expected to bring about the marginal improvement of short-term gross profit margin, and the profit boosting ability of companies with technological transformation efficiency increase + structural optimization + new product iteration may be stronger. ② The strengthening of the US dollar + the price transmission of overseas customers + the resonance of tariff exemption factors, and the export business may be dominant in the short term.
Investment advice: from αβα Looking for short, medium and long-term certainty from the perspective of structure, we explored 9 driving factors behind certainty and sorted out the growth maps of 24 new material companies.
Risk tips: sample selection risk, subjective judgment risk, upstream raw material fluctuation risk, business risk caused by Sino US trade friction, less than expected risk in expanding production, less than expected risk in expanding new products, and less than expected risk in downstream demand
