Current investment tips:
Background: on May 18, the European Commission announced an energy plan called “repowereu”. The plan proposes to increase the overall target of renewable energy in 2030 in the EU’s “55% carbon reduction” policy portfolio from 40% to 45% (22% of EU energy comes from renewable energy in 2021). The REpower EU plan aims to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas by 2 / 3 by the end of 2022 and completely get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas by 2027. In order to achieve this goal, an additional investment of € 210 billion will be required from 2022 to 2027.
1. The plan is beneficial to the photovoltaic industry. According to the plan, the cumulative PV installed capacity in the EU will reach 320gw by 2025, nearly double that in 2021, and the average annual new installed capacity from 2022 to 2025 will be 38.8gw By 2030, the installed capacity will be 600gw, and the new installed capacity from 2022 to 2030 will reach 435gw, higher than the previously planned 420gw In 2021, photovoltaic installed capacity in 25 of the 27 EU Member States increased month on month, with an overall new photovoltaic installed capacity of 25.9gw. In 2022, the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 38gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 45%.
2. The plan is good for distributed and BIPV The plan proposes Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) roof initiative to install Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery panels on new public and commercial buildings and new residential buildings. The acceptance of distributed PV module prices is high, and the profitability of distributed module products is generally good. The growth of distributed market is conducive to improving the overall profitability of module enterprises. For the photovoltaic industry, on the one hand, China’s current high module prices affect the installed capacity of ground power stations, on the other hand, China’s shipments to North America are affected by the wro of the United States and the double reverse investigation of Southeast Asia. In 2021, the EU imported 45.3gw of modules from China, accounting for 45% of China’s total exports of photovoltaic modules. In Q1 22, the EU imported 16.7gw of modules from China, with a year-on-year increase of 145%. The demand for modules brought by the rapid growth of PV installation in Europe not only improved the ability of module price transmission to the downstream, but also made up for the gap in the US market.
From the perspective of European markets, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and France are still strong demand countries. With the active promotion of incentive policies and bidding, the markets of Italy, Portugal, Greece and the UK will become the countries with rapid growth in the European market in 2022.
3. The plan is beneficial to the hydrogen energy industry. According to the plan, by 2030, the EU will produce 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen and import 10 million tons to replace natural gas, coal and oil used by industries and transportation sectors that are difficult to reduce carbon.
Investment analysis opinion: focus on the head integrated enterprises with high proportion of shipments in Europe and good channel layout: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; Focus on component enterprises with good layout in European distributed market segments: Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) ; Focus on the demand for inverter in the household market: Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
Risk tip: the risk that the introduction of policies is less than expected, the risk of deterioration of the international trade environment, and the risk of intensified competition in overseas markets.
