2021 is the year when the Paris Agreement is fully implemented. According to the statistics of NetZero tracker, the countries and regions that have declared carbon neutral / net zero emissions now cover 85% of the world’s population, 90% of GDP and 88% of emissions. China has also fully implemented the dual carbon development strategy, and takes the development of renewable energy as the basic way for China to promote industrial restructuring, promote the transformation of energy structure and implement the commitment of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued two notices on the planning of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base in November 2021 and February 2022, with the scale of 97gw and 455gw respectively, which effectively promoted the construction of wind power and photovoltaic projects.
The “rush to install” concentrated on releasing the demand for wind power equipment, curbing short-term performance and not changing long-term prosperity expectations:
The rush to install onshore wind turbines in 2020 brought a record annual new installed capacity of 72gw, and the stock demand of wind power equipment and some expected demand were digested intensively; In 2021, the annual new installed capacity decreased to 47gw, which is still the second highest level in history; It is expected that the average annual newly installed capacity during the 14th Five Year Plan period will be 55-60gw Revenue side of wind power equipment: in 2021, the total operating revenue was 240.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9%; In 2022, Q1 achieved a total operating revenue of 45.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. Profit side of wind power equipment: the total net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 20.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%; In 2022, Q1 realized a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Profitability of wind power equipment: the average gross profit margin in 2021 was 23.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2pct; The average net interest rate was 11.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7pct; In 2022q1, the average gross profit margin is 20.8% and the average net profit margin is 10.6%. We believe that as wind power enters the era of parity in an all-round way, the market needs some self adjustment, but does not change the long-term prosperity expectation.
The price of complete machine and the price of raw materials are under double pressure, and the maintenance of gross profit margin of products is concerned: large raw materials such as steel began to rise continuously in the middle of 2020. Although it fell down at the end of 2021, it is still at a high level, which has brought great cost pressure to wind power equipment manufacturers during this period; At the same time, “rush to load”
Gradually receding, the bidding price of the whole wind power plant in 2021 and 2022q1 maintained a downward trend, which brought great pressure on the sales end to the wind power equipment manufacturers, and the gross profit margin of many products showed a downward trend. Through technical means such as large-scale design of single machine, wind power manufacturers can significantly reduce the cost per kilowatt, strive to weaken the impact of rising raw material prices and meet the price requirements of the whole machine under the condition of wind power parity. At the same time, they actively develop wind resources projects to obtain high gross profit margin business income and have strong ability to maintain gross profit margin; Some key parts are less sensitive to the price of raw materials, or have sufficient domestic alternative development space, which has a certain advantage of gross profit margin; The supply and demand of chemical raw materials related to some fan blades are tight, and the market price increases significantly.
Investment suggestions: 1) the large-scale wind turbine can significantly reduce the cost per kilowatt of wind turbine. It is recommended that wind turbine enterprises with high market share and sufficient orders: Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) ; 2) It is recommended that the leading enterprise of fan casting has a high market share. With the gradual decline of raw material prices, the gross profit margin is expected to be significantly repaired: Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) . 3) Recommend suppliers of chemical raw materials related to fan blades with tight market supply and demand, polyether amine suppliers: Yangzhou Chenhua New Material Co.Ltd(300610) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected; The price of bulk raw materials fluctuates sharply; Repeated spread and spread of the epidemic; Risks such as changes in industrial policies.
