Recently, the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association updated the quotation of photovoltaic industry chain. This week, the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding is 255000 yuan / ton ~ 266000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price is maintained at 261100 yuan / ton; The price range of single crystal compact is 253000 yuan / ton ~ 264000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price is maintained at 258700 yuan / ton.
The silicon branch said that the price of polysilicon in China remained stable this week, mainly because the orders of polysilicon enterprises have been signed, and even some silicon materials have been delivered to the middle of June, and the enterprises have no materials to sign; Secondly, the structural inventory of silicon wafers has not decreased recently, and the rush to buy bulk orders at high prices has eased. Therefore, the market price of silicon material showed a phased stable trend this week.
At present, Chinese silicon material enterprises, including existing enterprises in production and new enterprises, are affected by the epidemic to varying degrees. Although the growth rate of expanded production capacity slows down, the increment is being released month by month. Even so, it is still less than the demand increment. Some silicon wafer production capacity with production conditions cannot improve the output due to insufficient silicon materials. Even some front-line silicon wafer enterprises may be forced to reduce the operating rate due to insufficient silicon materials. It can be seen that the current situation of silicon material shortage continues.
According to the judgment of the silicon industry branch, the price of silicon material in May will still maintain the expected trend, and by the end of may or the beginning of June, polysilicon enterprises will start signing long orders in June, and the price depends on the supply and demand of silicon material in June.
Specifically, the total supply of silicon material is expected to be about 73000 tons (including the output of 66000 tons + the import of 7000 tons), the output includes the production expansion increment of Xinte, Tongwei and silicon dioxide, and the import includes the release of OCI maintenance and resumption of production in Malaysia; The demand is also expected to be about 73000 tons, and the month on month increment is mainly the capacity release of Gaojing and Shuangliang.
Accordingly, the silicon industry branch believes that the silicon material price will continue to maintain a stable trend in the short term, but under the basic balance of market supply and demand, the raw material guarantee of various enterprises is uneven, and there is still a shortage of silicon material supply to varying degrees. Therefore, it is expected that the silicon material price will still have the power support of stable and slight rise before the end of June.
PV InfoLink further extended its view on the trend of silicon material. The agency pointed out that it is expected that the price of silicon material is still difficult to fall in the short term, but the rising space has been gradually narrowed.
The silicon branch also said that at present, the supply of silicon materials is still relatively short and there is no inventory. There is a small amount of structural inventory in the silicon wafer link, which is distributed among silicon wafer and battery chip enterprises and is still within the scope of normal circulation inventory. It is expected that the prices of all links will not be reversed before the downstream operating rate is adjusted.
According to the data of silicon industry branch, this week, the price range of M6 monocrystalline silicon was 5.70 yuan / piece ~ 5.74 yuan / piece, and the average transaction price was maintained at 5.72 yuan / piece; The price range of M10 monocrystalline silicon wafer is 6.76 yuan / wafer ~ 6.86 yuan / wafer, and the average transaction price is maintained at 6.84 yuan / wafer; The price range of G12 monocrystalline silicon wafer is 9.05 yuan / wafer ~ 9.15 yuan / wafer, and the average transaction price is maintained at 9.12 yuan / wafer. Both were flat on a week on week basis.
The silicon branch pointed out that the price of silicon wafers remained stable this week, mainly due to the increase of downstream inventory circulation. From the perspective of supply, the supply of silicon wafers is less than expected. Among them, the first-line enterprises still maintain a high opening rate. However, due to the tight supply of silicon materials and the poor logistics in the epidemic area, each enterprise can not actually open the furnace. Therefore, it is normal that the output of the enterprise is expected to decline compared with the planning at the beginning of the month. Silicon wafer production is expected to reach 25gw ~ 26gw in May, with a year-on-year increase of about 2.4%.
From the perspective of demand, the demand for silicon wafers has converged. The silicon wafer inventory circulation of the battery factory increased to 5 ~ 7 days, but it is still within the normal range. The forward order of the module side exceeds 1.95 yuan / W, the cost puts a certain pressure on the ground power station, and the distributed photovoltaic still performs well. The export price of overseas components is highly acceptable. Supported by European policies, the export price of components has exceeded 2 yuan / W. due to the simultaneous tightening of both supply and demand, the price is stable this week.
According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the silicon wafer production capacity planning in the second quarter is expected to reach 441.1gw/year, with a month on month increase of 5.7%. According to the expectation of “630” in previous years, there is a certain support for the demand for silicon wafers. If the terminal demand is maintained in the hot state in the second quarter, the phenomenon of short supply may continue, and the silicon chip end will still have upward space after the inventory is exhausted.
PV InfoLink also specifically mentioned the situation of wafer slicing, which is behind the high price of silicon and the demand of enterprises to reduce costs.
The agency pointed out that at present, only a few leading enterprises still use the thickness of 165 μ M, the thickness of monocrystalline silicon wafer of most other enterprises has been reduced to 155 μ m~160 μ m. Individual downstream enterprises have fully completed 155 μ In the process of product specification switching of m thickness, some professional monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises are also making great efforts to promote 155 μ The acceleration of m thickness specification in order to maintain the price and gross profit level in disguise.
With regard to the situation of batteries and components, PV InfoLink pointed out that in the past, the upward trend of battery prices faced a bottleneck this week. Recently, component manufacturers continued to reduce their ability to pull goods, and their acceptance of quotations also gradually declined. As a result, the power of battery manufacturers to increase prices was limited, the inventory level increased accordingly, and even the quotation of battery manufacturers showed signs of loosening; At the same time, the component price also continued to rise in May. It is expected that the new single negotiation price will be raised to more than 1.94 yuan ~ 1.95 yuan per watt next week.
