Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, A-share went out of the independent market and was not afraid of the sharp decline of US stocks overnight. After the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, they gradually fluctuated upward. In the afternoon, the index maintained a strong pattern, fluctuated around the flat line, and the trend rebounded slightly at the end of the day. Finally, the three major indexes closed red across the board, and the enthusiasm of the market to do more increased significantly.
As stated in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , at present, the market is still stubbornly rising after the sharp decline in the periphery, indicating that market confidence has begun to rise significantly , and the turning point of long and short intertwined near 3100 may begin to appear. In terms of operation, investors can still maintain low positions for short-term operation in the short term, and can choose to increase their positions when the follow-up market makes an effective breakthrough, focusing on the blue chip varieties with large adjustment range in the early stage.
From the technical point of view, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the A-share market opened low and went high on Thursday, with wide shocks. In the afternoon, the Shanghai index covered the gap of the day's short jump, and more industries joined the rebound in the late trading, boosting the stock index to continue to rise slightly. At present, the average p / E ratios of Shanghai Composite Index and gem index are 12.43 times and 36.56 times respectively, which are below the median level in recent three years; The trading volume of the two cities on Thursday was 806.7 billion yuan, which was in the median area of daily average trading volume in recent three years.
In terms of the future, Dongguan securities mentioned that in the short term, the overall confidence of the market has gradually stabilized. With the accelerated introduction and implementation of the steady growth policy, the effect of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has continued to show, promoting the accelerated recovery of the economy, it is expected that the market will continue to recover from shocks, pay attention to the change of volume and energy and the flow of funds to the North , and the operation suggestions are moderately positive, focusing on finance, real estate, building materials, food and beverage, power equipment TMT and other industries.
Bohai Securities believes that in the medium and long term, performance, valuation, policies and other factors are generally beneficial to the market. In the short term, the market shows a shock process after a rapid rebound, although the external index is still under great pressure, China's index shows a certain resistance to decline. If the index does not break in the consolidation adjustment, it will accumulate more strength for the upward attack in the next stage. It is suggested to be patient and select and allocate stocks based on the medium and long-term perspective in the process of market consolidation .
In terms of style, in addition to being optimistic about the Shanghai index in the large index, we continue to be optimistic about the science and Innovation Board Based on factors such as performance, valuation and reform policies.
Guosheng Securities said, at present, the market sentiment and confidence are gradually recovering under the low valuation and the increasing weight of policies. In the future, we can continue to look at the high line . Future concerns: first, photovoltaic direction. Europe encourages the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, and emphasizes that new buildings that meet the conditions should be equipped with roof photovoltaic equipment to improve the photovoltaic landscape. At the same time, many photovoltaic enterprises are expected to have their share prices repaired in large quantities after the initial downward exploration, which is expected to add fundamentals and increase capital resonance; 2、 The planting sector under the "food crisis" can be paid attention to.
In the macro aspect, Ping An Securities pointed out that the current uncertainty of overseas inflation situation still exists, there is the possibility of further upgrading China's structural inflation risk, and the recent depreciation of RMB exchange rate may further boost the risk of imported inflation. In the future, the measures of industrial policy in ensuring supply and price stability, stabilizing logistics and industrial chain still need to be accelerated, and fiscal policy needs to play a more important role in helping enterprises to bail out.
For monetary policy, the potential structural inflation risk has not been removed, or it is one of the concerns of MLF interest rate reduction monetary policy may guide LPR quotation downward and promote the implementation of structural instruments to support the real economy .
In addition to the moderate pace of the stock market in the whole year, the stock market in Anxin will not recover. Objectively speaking, the current fundamentals are still in a downward trend, and we have not seen the signal of improvement in relevant economic data. It is not sufficient to judge the inflection point of China's molecular end profit expectation only by social finance in April.
In terms of operational strategy, the organization further analyzed that for the current four main lines of "steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation", the "steady growth" of "steady growth" is still the main position (positional warfare, not switching back and forth) . Recommended configuration priorities: steady growth (infrastructure, real estate chain and bank) high prosperity (digital intelligence, photovoltaic, military industry, semiconductor, wind power and new energy vehicles)), post epidemic repair (social service, logistics, medical beauty, food and beverage, etc.) global inflation (coal, nonferrous metals and petrochemical).
In addition, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) previously mentioned that it is recommended that focus on the three main lines of steady growth chain, growth oversold rebound and the rise in the price of mandatory consumer goods : 1) the national standing committee, the Political Bureau and other meetings have emphasized steady growth for many times. Before the economic data improve significantly, the opportunity for steady growth allocation has not ended. Continue to grasp the new and old infrastructure that is an important starting point for steady growth and supported by the performance in the second quarter; Pay attention to the real estate related industries (steel, real estate, etc.) where the short-term policy easing continues to increase and the medium and long-term boom is expected to bottom out; And the improvement of asset quality, superimposed with undervalued and high dividend banks.
2) with the phased decline of 10-year US bond yield and the full release of concerns about the performance of the first quarterly growth report, we continue to be optimistic about the growth oversold rebound in the short term. We can pay attention to industries that have significantly oversold since the beginning of the year, such as power equipment, electronics and military industry, as well as industries with new infrastructure logic, such as communication and computer. In addition, after the new tone of the platform economy is set, there are also valuation repair opportunities for oversold rebound in the Internet industry.
3) with the phased promotion of resumption of business and city in Shanghai, the normalization of epidemic prevention and control in various regions, and the successive introduction of consumption promotion policies in various regions, the recovery of residents' consumption is the general trend. Focus on the pharmaceutical and biological products expected to be repaired under the stable release of epidemic prevention demand (covid-19 related fields); And the opportunity to increase the price of mandatory consumer goods (food, beverage and dairy products).
