Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : coal price may be driven by three factors! Strongly recommend with profit elasticity
Under the situation of insufficient supply and rising demand, how will the coal market interpret the reconstruction of supply and demand caused by superimposed geographical conflicts? In the short term, we believe that coal prices may be driven by three factors: 1) the peak of coal consumption in summer is coming, and the demand may strengthen; 2) The epidemic situation is gradually unsealed and steadily growing, and the demand is expected to recover; 3) The export of upstream raw materials is expected to boost and support demand. In the medium and long term, we believe that the reconstruction of the global energy supply and demand pattern caused by geographical conflicts will not only lead to the high operation of coal prices in the short term, but also raise the global medium and long-term coal use costs, resulting in the upward movement of the medium and long-term coal price center.
In terms of individual stocks, we recommend Yankuang energy-a / h and Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) -a with profit elasticity. Considering the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association, we recommend China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) -a / h and China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) -a / h, which are mainly sold by the long-term association. Considering the scarcity of high-quality coking coal, we recommend Shougang resource-h, which is the high-quality standard of coking coal.
Cinda Securities: the global coal war has begun! The coal sector will usher in a historic round of double rise in performance and valuation
The pattern of coal trade has been reshaped, and the war for coal has begun. From a deeper level, the global coal production cycle driven by supply logic is the root of the continuous tension between coal supply and demand in China and even the world. At present, it is still in the early stage of a new round of global energy Inflation Based on the production capacity cycle and boosted by excessive currency. The problem of global coal, oil and gas resource supply shortage may become more serious in the next three to five years or even longer.
China’s policy has actively promoted supply and price stability, and achieved remarkable results compared with international policies. The developed economies represented by Europe have actually shifted from climate security to energy security, and have and will tend to higher emissions. Based on the basic national condition that the energy structure is dominated by coal, China will coordinate the relationship between development and carbon reduction, vigorously promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal, scientifically and orderly promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and provide a solid energy guarantee for high-quality development.
With the cyclical upward fundamentals and highly encouraged development by the policy area, the coal industry will enter a boom upward cycle in the next few years. In the process of the state vigorously promoting the market-oriented reform of energy and electricity, the coal price center is also expected to rise steadily year by year. However, at present, the valuation of the coal sector is at the bottom of history. Considering the attributes of high performance, high cash and high dividend, and superimposing the characteristics of high boom, long cycle and high barrier, the coal sector will usher in a round of historical market with double rise of performance and valuation.
Two main lines are recommended from bottom to top: first, Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , etc., with large growth space for endogenous extension, excellent resource endowment and excellent corporate governance; Second, high-quality coking companies Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , etc. with special scarcity of global resources and growth space.
Chuancai Securities: coal supply and price stability, continuous force, sector valuation center or rise
Coal prices continued to run at a high level, and energy supply continued to receive attention. Since 2022, the price of thermal coal has been at a high level. The recent intensive deployment at the central level requires to ensure the normal supply of energy and take multiple measures to alleviate the capital pressure of enterprises. Closely supervise from the mining end, enterprise end and transaction end. At present, the coal industry is characterized by high profitability, strong demand and unstable supply. There are corresponding investment opportunities under the intervention of policy.
According to the first quarter report, the profits of coal enterprises are considerable, especially the net profit increase of some leading enterprises is much higher than the market expectation. According to statistics, as of 2022q1, the total market value of coal shares held by public funds was RMB 27.684 billion, an increase of 209.33% compared with RMB 8.95 billion in 2021q4. The market heat and capital preference of the coal sector have been quite different from those in the past few years, and the value cognition of institutional investors for the coal sector is also changing. In addition, the recent increasing support for the energy supply industry also proves that the current attention to coal is increasing. With the support of profit side and supply and demand side, the industry valuation center is expected to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant companies integrating mining and power generation business. Related objects: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Yankuang energy, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : it is difficult to change the tight coal supply pattern and allocate undervalued companies on bargain hunting
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics in April, there is still a bottleneck in China’s coal production. The import of coal may be reduced again in May, and China’s coal supply is still tight. Although the demand was still weak in April, there was a high probability of improvement with the easing of the epidemic and the implementation of relevant policies. Looking forward to the whole year, the industry boom may continue to improve, and the performance expectations of subsequent listed companies may be revised up. At present, undervalued companies can be allocated on bargain hunting.
Sentiment and expectations have warmed up, and bargain hunting has added undervalued stocks. In the early stage, the market was worried about negative expectations such as weak industry demand and power coal price regulation policies, and the sector fluctuated greatly. In the short term, these negative expectations have been digested one after another, and the market sentiment and expectation are warming up. Medium term steady growth, gradual relaxation of real estate policy and other policy expectations will also support industry demand expectations. We suggest to add undervalued companies corresponding to the latest performance expectations after the disclosure of the first quarterly report on bargain hunting: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Yankuang energy, power investment energy, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) .
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the performance growth of coal enterprises in the first quarter is generally fast! Quarter on quarter performance improvement is expected to continue to exceed expectations
The epidemic situation has gradually improved, and enterprises have resumed work one after another. Although the implementation of the coal long-term association and price monitoring have become more strict in terms of policy, the price space is higher than expected, which is still good; The import procurement is not smooth, and the increase in the purchase price of large enterprises also reflects the shortage at the supply side, and the price of thermal coal is expected to remain supported. Overall, the supply and demand pattern of coal is still tight, and the prosperity of the industry will remain high. The growth rate of coal enterprises’ performance in the first quarter is generally fast, and the improvement of performance in the second quarter is expected to continue to exceed the expected performance; The high proportion of dividends of listed companies reached a new high since listing, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: under the long-term high coal price, the sector has the space to significantly improve the valuation
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) full dividend for two consecutive years and the first quarterly report of the sector exceeding expectations have made the market re recognize the high dividend paying ability and profit releasing ability of coal, and the sector has room for substantial increase in valuation under long-term high coal prices. Recommendations: 1) high dividend / green power transformation / growth coal chemical industry: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) / power investment energy, China Xuyang group / Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . 2) Elasticity of coking coal under steady growth: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Shougang resources. 3) Enterprises with resource advantages and high flexibility: Yankuang energy, China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) .
Minsheng Securities: the coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by real estate and infrastructure investment
The recent off-season demand superimposed on the impact of the epidemic and the price limit policy have a certain impact on the coal price expectation. However, we believe that with the mitigation of the epidemic, there is more room for demand improvement in the later stage, and it may be in the configuration window at present. In terms of target, we recommend the following main investment lines: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to usher in value revaluation. It is recommended to pay attention to Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by real estate and infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
open source Securities: improvement of the epidemic situation and steady growth are imminent, and the investment value of coal stocks is prominent
The improvement of the epidemic and steady growth are imminent, and the investment value of coal stocks is prominent. For power coal, in the context of global energy shortage, coal prices are expected to remain high for a long time. Most coal companies have tended to pay high dividends, and the current annualized valuation of most enterprises is only 4 or 5 times, with a high safety margin, especially the allocation value of coal stocks. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
For the coal power industry chain, the supply side: China’s supply is not loose, the epidemic situation and safety production pressure in various regions, the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao line, and the shipment of coal are subject to certain restrictions. At the same time, there is also the phenomenon of giving priority to the annual long-term cooperation of power coal and reducing the amount of coal in the market; In addition, the national development and Reform Commission is still promoting the signing of emergency coal supply guarantee contracts; Demand side: at present, it is still in the off-season of coal consumption, the peak summer season has not yet come, the national epidemic has improved, industrial power consumption has gradually increased, and the daily consumption of power plants is still low, but increased month on month. In the later stage, the procurement demand for summer peak is started, and the power demand is expected to rebound.
For the coal coke steel industry chain: there is no significant increase in China’s output of coking coal and there is no supply guarantee policy. Under zero tariff, the low tax rate of imported coal from Russia and Mongolia will increase to a certain extent, but the greater impact is the transportation capacity and epidemic situation. On the demand side, with the improvement of epidemic situation and the force of steady growth policy, the price of coking coal is expected to be strong.
