Today (May 20), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher all day, and A-Shares went out of the maverick market. Under the support of policy stimulus, the stock index continued to attack. Although it rose and fell in the morning, it maintained a high shock pattern in the afternoon, with prominent strong characteristics.
In this regard, Bohai Securities said that although the peripheral index is still under great pressure, China's index has shown a certain resistance to decline. If the index does not break in the consolidation adjustment, it will accumulate more strength for the upward attack in the next stage. It is suggested to be patient and carry out stock selection and allocation based on the medium and long-term perspective in the process of market consolidation.
At the same time, Anxin Securities said that for the current four main lines of "steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation", the "steady growth" is still the main position (positional warfare, it is not suitable to switch back and forth). Recommended configuration priorities: steady growth (infrastructure, real estate chain and bank) high prosperity (digital intelligence, photovoltaic, military industry, semiconductor, wind power and new energy vehicles)), post epidemic repair (social service, logistics, medical beauty, food and beverage, etc.) global inflation (coal, nonferrous metals and petrochemical).
sector:
I. coal
Cinda Securities said that the coal trade pattern has been reshaped and the coal competition war has begun. From a deeper level, the global coal production cycle driven by supply logic is the root of the continuous tension between coal supply and demand in China and even the world. At present, it is still in the early stage of a new round of global energy Inflation Based on the production capacity cycle and boosted by excessive currency. The problem of global coal, oil and gas resource supply shortage may become more serious in the next three to five years or even longer.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that under the condition of insufficient supply and rising demand, how will the coal market interpret the reconstruction of supply and demand caused by superimposed geographical conflicts? In the short term, we believe that coal prices may be driven by three factors: 1) the peak of coal consumption in summer is coming, and the demand may strengthen; 2) The epidemic situation is gradually unsealed and steadily growing, and the demand is expected to recover; 3) The export of upstream raw materials is expected to boost and support demand. In the medium and long term, we believe that the reconstruction of the global energy supply and demand pattern caused by geographical conflicts will not only lead to the high operation of coal prices in the short term, but also raise the global medium and long-term coal use costs, resulting in the upward movement of the medium and long-term coal price center.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) mentioned that the supply and demand pattern of coal is still tight and the prosperity of the industry will remain high. The growth rate of coal enterprises' performance in the first quarter is generally fast, and the improvement of performance in the second quarter is expected to continue to exceed the expected performance; The high proportion of dividends of listed companies reached a new high since listing, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
II. Non ferrous metals
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that various financial indicators of the non-ferrous metal industry showed an obvious upward trend, and the prosperity of the industry continued to rise. At the same time, with the continuous promotion of global automobile electrification transformation and the continuous high inflation level in the United States, the lithium and gold sub sectors perform more prominently. With the continued prosperity of the industry in the future, the relevant targets may benefit.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that for the new energy metal industry, the price was adjusted in April, but the pattern of tight supply and demand fundamentals throughout the year was not changed: on the supply side, the lithium extraction output of Qinghai Salt Lake in China declined in winter, and the capacity utilization rate has not been fully restored at present; On the demand side, 465000 and 484000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold in March, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1 and 1.1 times respectively. The pace of lithium mine resumption and expansion in Western Australia is earlier than the previous plan, but the overall impact on the supply side this year is limited. It is expected that the tight supply and demand situation of global lithium ore will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the lithium price is expected to remain high.
For cobalt, the epidemic in South Africa repeatedly led to delayed delivery of raw materials in the first quarter of this year, and the shipping schedule was generally extended by 2-2.5 months. China's Cobalt raw material inventory is still tight. It is expected that this tension may remain for some time. With the stability of the epidemic in the middle of the year, the shortage of raw material supply may be alleviated.
For rare earths, fundamental changes have taken place in the current industry fundamentals. The supply is orderly, the consumption is in full swing, and the value of rare earths has been revalued. In the short term, the epidemic has disturbed the demand for rare earth terminals, but we believe that the demand is only delayed rather than disappeared, superimposed with the small reduction of the supply side, the industry supply and demand is orderly, and the price may remain volatile between the upstream and downstream games.
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