The quotation of lithium carbonate, which has been sideways for one month, is somewhat loose today.
On May 19, Baichuan Yingfu data showed that the mainstream quotation range of China's battery grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) market was between 47 Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) 3000 yuan, and the average price rose to 476000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10000 yuan compared with yesterday's price. The price of retail trade rose slightly, and the price was concentrated at 455000465000 yuan / ton.
The quotation of Antaike under China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association shows that the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate (99%) on that day was 425000 yuan / ton, an increase of 5000 yuan per ton compared with the previous quotation.
However, the quotation from Shanghai Nonferrous metals was not adjusted on the same day and has remained unchanged at 461500 yuan / ton since April 26.
Baichuan Yingfu and Antaike offer increased slightly
Although there are some differences among the above commodity quotation institutions, the quotation at the market level has indeed become loose recently, and the lithium carbonate retail market has been raised for many times recently.
It should be noted that in the second quarter of each year, affected by the large volume of Salt Lake and weak demand, lithium salt prices will mostly fall and sideways. In 2020, lithium salt prices will not return to rise until early October, and in 2021, lithium salt prices will rise from the end of July.
Therefore, after the price of lithium carbonate loosens today, whether the rise can continue needs further observation.
"at present, the market is in the off-season of demand. In the short term, there are few new transactions, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The price of lithium may stabilize." Baichuan Yingfu pointed out
At present, the operating state of lithium salt price is equivalent to a bottom downward. The imported lithium concentrate pushes up the smelting end cost as a support. Upward, it is faced with the release of Salt Lake production capacity in May and the suppression of no significant improvement on the demand end.
First, on the cost side, the auction price of Pilbara lithium concentrate in late April reached US $5650, which directly pushed up the production cost of lithium carbonate to nearly 400000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium mica also rose.
According to the data, in April this year, China's lithium carbonate production was more than 19000 tons, while in the second half of 2021, the monthly production can reach more than 20000 tons.
"The production of Salt Lake end is obviously affected by natural gas, and the output increment is not obvious. From this month, the production capacity is gradually released. The operation of mine end manufacturers is normal. Most manufacturers implement the orders of old customers, and the spot circulation is less. The tight supply situation still exists." Baichuan Yingfu said.
On the demand side, suppressed by the high price lithium salt, most of them just need to get the goods. The improvement of the demand side in the later stage will still rely on the large-scale resumption of production of terminal vehicle enterprises.
in addition, according to the recent feedback of a purchaser who recently went to Qinghai to "find lithium", the quotation of the local lithium salt factory is still strong, but the sentiment of resisting high priced lithium salt in the downstream still exists
In the above context, it is necessary to further observe the price game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. If the current supply-demand relationship does not change substantially, the price rise of lithium carbonate will be difficult to sustain.
Other adverse factors include the current historical high of 470000 yuan / ton and the risk of lithium salt market price regulation.
lithium stocks "return blood" significantly
Although the above lithium salt prices have loosened, the rebound of lithium ore and lithium salt sector is earlier than the fundamentals.
On April 26, the secondary market bottomed out and the current round of rebound began the next day.
As of May 19, the rebound rate of Shenwan lithium industry sector reached 42.22%, ranking first in the increase of all segments of Shenwan, followed by photovoltaic equipment (34.05%) and discrete devices (26.15%).
There are only 4 individual stocks included in Shenwan lithium industry, namely Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) and Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , with a small number of sample stocks as a whole.
If 14 constituent stocks in wind lithium sector are added, and two sample stocks of Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Zangger mining are added, a total of 14 constituent stocks have gained during the period, with an overall median increase of 29.26%.
This is mainly due to the continuous deviation between the fundamentals of the lithium sector and the trend of the secondary market since September 2021, as well as the valuation advantage brought by the high growth of profits of the whole industry in the first quarter.
On April 20, our newspaper 21st hard core investment research reported that , excluding Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) and Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) with missing data, the average earnings per share of the other 14 constituent stocks in 2022 is predicted to be 3.84 yuan, and the average closing price (no resumption of rights) on April 20 is 61.9 yuan, which is equivalent to 16.11 times of the average valuation .
According to the above standards, the valuation of some industry leaders at that time was only more than 10 times. In this context, the lithium sector has become the pioneer of the rebound of the whole sector since late April.
It should be noted that even if the price rise of lithium carbonate will not continue next, considering that the overall price is still high, the average sales price of lithium salt manufacturers in the second quarter of this year is higher than that in the first quarter.
At that time, reflected in the statements of listed companies, that is, the profit scale of industries and enterprises in the second quarter, compared with the profit scale of 3 billion yuan in the first quarter, the possibility of month on month growth cannot be ruled out.
However, in terms of the specific company's profit trend, affected by the increase in the price of lithium concentrate long-term association this year, the profit of the industrial chain is accelerating the transfer to the mine end, and the profit space of lithium salt manufacturers with a large number of purchased raw materials will be compressed. Therefore, the profit elasticity of Chinese listed companies may be differentiated next.
On the whole, the profit margin of salt lake lithium extraction enterprises and lithium concentrate production enterprises that can achieve high self-sufficiency will be significantly higher than that of their peers. In terms of the rebound characteristics of lithium mining stocks in this round, they are also more inclined to individual stocks with mine end resources as a whole.
