Recently, it is reported that a new round of "automobile to the countryside" policy is expected to be introduced in early June to encourage vehicles with models less than 150000 yuan, including fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, with subsidies ranging from 3000 yuan to 5000 yuan per vehicle.
In this regard, on May 19, the relevant person in charge of the China Automobile Industry Association told the shell finance reporter of the Beijing news that "there is no definite news." Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, told the shell finance reporter of the Beijing News, "almost. Going to the countryside can play a role in publicity and guidance and building consumer confidence." Affected by this new round of news of "automobile going to the countryside", the concept stocks of complete vehicles strengthened again on May 19. As of the close, Zhongtong Bus Co.Ltd(000957) , Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) limit, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Dongfeng Automobile Co.Ltd(600006) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. followed the rise.
supply chain and the impact of raw material price rise, the pressure on the auto market is obvious
Since 2021, China's auto market has been continuously affected by factors such as supply chain shortage and rising raw material prices, and the overall pressure is obvious. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in April this year, China's automobile production and sales completed 1.205 million and 1.181 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 46.2% and 47.1% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.1% and 47.6% respectively, which is the monthly low in the same period in the past decade.
Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, said, "since April, the automobile industry chain has experienced the most severe test in history. Some enterprises have stopped production, logistics and transportation have been greatly hindered, and the production and supply capacity has declined sharply. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the consumption capacity and confidence have decreased significantly, and the task of stabilizing the growth of the industry is very arduous." In addition, he admitted, "at present, consumer demand has indeed been affected to a certain extent, especially for consumers who buy high-end brands, their demand has slowed down."
"Regions with conditions should launch relevant stimulus policies as soon as possible." Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president of China Automobile Association, recently called, "at present, the key to steady growth is to unblock the automobile supply chain and logistics transportation, and speed up the activation of the consumer market."
policy encourages automobile consumption, and the State Council twice mentioned that automobiles go to the countryside
In fact, since this year, the trend of encouraging automobile consumption at the policy level has been obvious.
At the national level, at the executive meeting of the State Council held on April 13, it was proposed to encourage large-scale consumption such as automobiles and household appliances, and all localities shall not add measures to restrict the purchase of automobiles, and gradually increase the incremental indicators of the purchase restrictions that have been implemented; Support the consumption of new energy vehicles. From the local level, in the first five months of this year, Guangdong Province, Shandong Province, Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province, Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and other 11 provinces and cities issued relevant policies to support automobile consumption, stimulating local automobile consumption by means of consumption subsidies, increasing car purchase indicators and exchanging old for new.
Boosted by a series of policies, the car market sales improved in May. According to the data of the passenger Federation, from May 1 to May 15, the retail sales of 484000 passenger cars in the national passenger car market decreased by 21% year-on-year and increased by 27% month on month. Cui Dongshu said that all localities have actively introduced local auto market support policies, which can promote the recovery of the auto market to a certain extent, but the sustainable recovery of the terminal needs strong support policies.
In February this year, the "14th five year plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization" issued by the State Council mentioned that regions with conditions are encouraged to carry out a new round of policies such as going to the countryside by car. On April 25, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption, which encouraged regions with conditions to carry out new energy vehicles and promote the construction of charging piles (stations) and other supporting facilities.
Bai Yiyang of the international research department of CMB believes that it is of great significance to restart the "car to the countryside", "On the one hand, as a typical bulk consumer goods, automobile is of great significance to stabilize the basic consumption, and can stimulate many links such as upstream metal, midstream manufacturing and downstream services; on the other hand, under the guidance of 'common prosperity', the income gap between urban and rural areas continues to shrink, and the disturbance to the rural market under the epidemic is relatively low, so it has a certain consumption potential. At this time, it is expected to fully release the agricultural income gap through financial leverage Village market consumption potential. "
Cui Dongshu also said: "it is difficult to increase the car purchase indicators in cities with purchase restrictions to stimulate consumption. It is best to increase the demand of county and township markets in small and medium-sized cities, and the county market is the focus of promotion."
growth range extends to the sinking market. Experts say the focus of the car market is the county market
In fact, this is not the first time to implement the policy of sending cars to the countryside. As early as January 2009, the "plan for the adjustment and revitalization of the automobile industry" released by the State Council proposed that cars go to the countryside and give financial subsidies. With the implementation of the "car to the countryside" policy extended for one year at the beginning of 2010, the growth rate of China's automobile sales in 2009 and 2010 was 45.5% and 32.5% respectively.
In 2018, China's auto market showed negative growth for the first time in 28 years. In 2019, the "automobile to the countryside" policy was restarted after 10 years. The policy ended on December 31, 2020. The sales volume of China's automobile market decreased by 8% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Chen Qingtai, chairman of China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, once predicted that China's automobile growth region will expand and transfer from the east to the central and western regions, from the first and second tier cities to the third and fourth tier cities, and from cities to villages; According to the calculation of an average annual increase of 10% in the disposable income of rural residents, the number of cars per 1000 people in rural areas is expected to reach 160 by 2030, and the total number of cars will exceed 70 million.
Cui Dongshu believes that the focus of the car market is the county market, and there is a huge space for new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles to enter the county; Through the conditional development of the county, a number of new urbanization and urbanization development points are formed, the county economy with potential is developed, and the cornerstone of automobile consumption is expanded. The county has become a new growth point of China's automobile development.
He analyzed that at present, a large number of rural people are transferring to the county, and the consumer market is also the county market, with great development potential; Through natural trend development, realize the take-off of China's urban and county economy, improve the living and employment environment of the county, guide the diversion of population in large cities, and resettle the rural population nearby. Most rural young adults buy houses and settle down in the county, especially the married group.
The industry believes that the main beneficiaries of automobile going to the countryside are independent brands. From the perspective of product line, the product line of independent brands has a more obvious price advantage, and the product line within 150000 yuan is relatively rich.
However, Bai Yiyang believes that the "automobile going to the countryside" still needs to pay attention to two aspects: one is to ensure the stability of the supply side; the other is that the rural market is dominated by middle-end and popular models, and the demand will still focus on fuel models, which requires car enterprises to balance the new energy strategy.
At present, it is still difficult for new energy vehicles to go to the countryside. At present, low-speed electric vehicles are more popular in the rural market due to restrictions such as driving licenses and prices. In addition, according to the data of China electric vehicle charging infrastructure promotion alliance, the top five provinces in the total number of public charging piles in the first four months of this year were Guangdong Province, Shanghai City, Jiangsu Province, Beijing city and Zhejiang Province; Cui Dongshu frankly said that at present, the supporting facilities of new energy vehicles in the rural market are poor and need to be effectively improved.
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