Key investment points
LG new energy: Q1 revenue in 2022 was about 26.3 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 3% / – 2%; It is mainly caused by the shortage of chips, the supply chain shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic, and the recall of general modern batteries; In 2022, Q1’s operating profit was 1.57 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 6%, with a month on month ratio of – 2.0pct / + 4.3pct. Q1’s battery price increased in time, the transmission cost increased, and the profit improved significantly month on month. The company’s revenue in 2022 is expected to reach 116.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. If the impact of one-time revenue in 2021 is deducted, the revenue is expected to increase by 14%. In terms of production capacity, the company expects the production capacity to reach 195gwh by the end of 2022, including 114gwh / 68gwh / 13gwh in Asia / Europe / North America respectively; By the end of 2025, the production capacity will reach 520gwh, including 45gwh jointly invested by stellatis of the United States, 135gwh jointly invested by GM and 15gwh jointly invested by Hyundai of Korea. The production capacity in Asia / Europe / North America is expected to reach 190gwh / 115gwh / 215gwh respectively, supporting the subsequent high growth.
Samsung SDI: Q1 revenue in 2022 is about 24.54 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 36.7% / + 6.1%; The operating profit was 1.95 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 142.0% / + 21.3%; The net profit was about 2.2 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 141.8% / – 7.4%. In terms of gen.6 battery, the positive nickel content of the next generation gen.6 battery currently being developed by the company exceeds 91%, and its energy density will be 10% higher than that of the fifth generation, and mass production will begin around 2024. In the future, the company will focus on providing maximum energy density through the use of high nickel cathode materials and silicon cathode materials, and plans to use Cobalt Free cathode materials and replace cobalt with manganese to reduce material costs.
Ski: Q1 battery revenue increased month on month in 2022, and the loss decreased slightly month on month. The company raised its annual revenue forecast by 17%. In 2022, the revenue of Q1 battery sector was RMB 7.64 billion, with a month on month ratio of + 139.39% / + 18.13%; The operating profit was -1.66 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of -54.73% / + 11.75%; Operating profit margin – 22%, yoy + 12pct / + 7pct The increase of operating revenue was mainly due to the increase of OEM sales in Europe and the rise of metal prices; The year-on-year increase in operating losses was mainly due to the increase in initial costs due to the start of commercial operation of phase I of the US plant and phase II of the Hungarian plant. Due to the smooth transmission of raw material prices, the scale effect and the improvement of operation level, the company raised the annual revenue expectation of 36.364 billion yuan to 42.424 billion yuan, and the pre tax profit of Q4 will become positive by 2022.
Panasonic: the revenue of Q1 energy sector in 2022 was 12.28 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 73.7% / + 1.1%; The operating profit was 820 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 28.4% / – 28.0%; The operating profit margin was 6.7%, with a month on month ratio of -9.5pct / – 2.7pct, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the rise of raw material prices and the increase of fixed costs.
In terms of production capacity, the expansion of American factories was completed, and the production capacity reached 39gwh by the end of 2021. The company’s global battery capacity was about 89gwh In 2022, the company announced a new 10gwh battery plant in Wakayama, Japan, mainly producing 4680 large cylindrical batteries for Tesla. It is expected to complete the verification and mass production by the end of 2023 and early 2024. In addition, the company’s battery factories in Dalian, Wuxi and Dedao also have production expansion plans. It is expected that the company’s global battery capacity will reach 199gwh in 2025.
Investment suggestion: the valuation of electric vehicles has fallen back to the bottom, and the worst time may have passed. The sales volume and production in May 2022 are better than before. The high outlook in 2022 continues, and the leader is expected to increase by 60-100%. It is strongly optimistic about the oversold and reversal of the electric vehicle sector. The first main line is optimistic about the batteries superimposed with energy storage at the Q2 Profit inflection point in 2022, the leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ., Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ; The second item is the faucet in continuous shortage: diaphragm (recommended Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ), negative electrode (recommended Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , pay attention to beiteri, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) ), electrolyte at the bottom of valuation (recommended Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ); The third main line: battery technology upgrading high nickel ternary (recommended Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ), structural parts (recommended Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), lithium ferromanganese (recommended Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), additives (recommended Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The fourth is lithium (focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) etc.) and copper foil (recommend Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ).
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than expected, the price competition is higher than expected, the investment growth rate is declining, etc.
