The year-on-year growth rate of single month sales in April was – 39.0%, 21.3 PCT higher than the negative growth in March, and the epidemic had an important impact on the expansion of the decline; Judging from the high-frequency data, the total sales in May was under pressure, but the sales of second-hand houses in some cities may lead to improvement, and the epidemic has become the main factor affecting the pace of recovery; The bottom of the policy has appeared, and under the background of downward pressure on house prices and increasing pressure on the capital chain, the policy may continue to improve. Judging the improvement of the industry competitive environment may become a more important logic for the improvement of valuation. In the follow-up, we will “pay more attention to the verification of logic”, that is, the improvement of demand;
In April, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment fell back to – 10.1%, expanding 7.7 PCT compared with the negative growth in March, and the land purchase fee lags behind or will continue its downward trend;
The year-on-year growth rate of new construction in April was – 44.2%, 21.9 PCT larger than the negative growth in March. The continued depression of the sales market still affected the willingness of enterprises to start construction;
The year-on-year growth rate of completed area in April was – 14.2%, slightly narrowed by 1.3 PCT compared with the negative growth in March. The main reason is that the capital chain of real estate enterprises is still weak, and the construction intensity has not returned to the normal level, but the margin has improved. Looking back, with the recovery of sales, maintain flexibility: “completion commencement Sales real estate investment land acquisition”;
The year-on-year growth rate of funds in place in April was – 35.5%, which expanded by 12.5 PCT compared with the negative growth in March. Structurally, China’s loans were more resilient, and the year-on-year negative growth narrowed to – 28.0%; Affected by the secondary market, self raised funds have a low willingness to issue new bonds, with a year-on-year negative growth of – 6.6%; Affected by the sales market, the down payment, advance payment and personal mortgage increased negatively year-on-year to – 53.0% and – 42.4% respectively; At present, the currency activation index continues to decline, the stability of the capital chain at the industry operation level is also at a low level, new house prices may lag, there is continuous downward pressure, and the upside down of new house and second-hand house prices in some regions has decreased;
Investment suggestion: the industry allocation logic has changed from “paying more attention to policy” in the first stage and “paying more attention to logic” in the second stage (improving the competition pattern) to “paying more attention to the verification of logic” at present. It is suggested to pay more attention to the positive changes in sales and the targeted efforts of policies to improve the demand, and pay attention to a few leading opportunities brought by the long-term possible characteristics of “declining slope and more lasting recovery”; From the perspective of real estate, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to “Zhaobao Wanjin zhonghualong” ( China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group), and pay attention to those with marginal changes: Yuexiu, Greentown, Oct, etc. If the fundamentals are bottomed out, the second stage can focus on some flexible private enterprises with business model optimization, such as Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) etc. Attention of regional companies: Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) etc. some regional companies have certain game space, but they need to pay attention to the guarantee of goods value to sales growth and the sustainability of de conversion rate. It is suggested to avoid the subject matter that cash flow is hidden or always depends on liabilities;
From the perspective of industrial chain, pay attention to the valuation and repair of suppliers in each segment of the industrial chain, and pay attention to the valuation and repair elasticity of relevant sectors such as light industry, building materials, household appliances and so on;
From the perspective of ecological chain, pay attention to the transformation of development, such as shopping center / office building / long rent apartment / Industrial Park / logistics real estate, and the transformation around the real estate ecological chain, such as design / centralized procurement and construction / transaction / asset management / real estate technology, such as property management pays attention to [ China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ] [poly property] [country garden service], business management pays attention to [China Resources Vientiane life] [Xingsheng business], etc; Focus on the long track layout of REITs.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations, the policy improvement was less than expected, the sales decline was more than expected, the policy improvement such as pre-sale fund supervision was less than expected, the market liquidity improvement was less than expected, and the overseas liquidity tightening was more than expected
