Two words! One is “the tree wants to be quiet but the wind does not stop”; Another sentence is “strong wind knows strong grass”.
This “wind” comes from the other side of the ocean. The U.S. stock market ended early this morning is very, very bad. The Dow Jones fell 3.57%, the NASDAQ fell 4.73%, and the S & P 500 fell 4.04%. It should be said that the decline is quite large. In particular, the S & P 500, today is the biggest day of decline since the “long live” circuit breaker crisis in June 2020.
Why did the U.S. stock market suddenly change the wind direction and decline so much on the basis of the sharp rise the day before yesterday? The main reason is that the first quarter financial report of fiscal year 2022 released by American retail giant target is very bad. Tajit’s net profit in the first quarter of 2022 fell by 51% year-on-year, which directly led to the decline of investors’ performance of Listed Companies in the United States and their concerns about inflation, because all this was actually reflected in the company’s performance. Perhaps, the current adjustment will still be at a high level in the future. Because once the performance of listed companies declines, the valuation (P / E ratio) will immediately double. Therefore, it is reasonable for US stocks to fall so much.
Shuipi has repeatedly reminded that the decline of the US stock market is inevitable. Even if there is a rebound, it will not change the downward trend. The reason is that U.S. stocks rose too much, including target mentioned by shuipi just now: everyone knows that target is an American retail chain brand, and its share price was $128 before the epidemic. After the outbreak, the lowest fell to more than $90. At the beginning of last year, the share price had reached $264. In other words, target’s share price is now a little more than double that before the outbreak. After announcing the results this morning, the share price fell by 25%, and now the share price is still $161. Compared with $90 after the epidemic and $128 before the epidemic, it is still a high valuation.
Coincidentally, Tencent also released a quarterly report: the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.4 billion, down 51% year-on-year. The main reason is that Tencent’s social advertising revenue has declined, and the revenue of games has basically stagnated. Therefore, people have questioned whether there will be zero growth in the future for the growth of network technology stocks such as Tencent. This will constitute a huge suppression of Tencent’s share price. So today, Tencent’s share price fell sharply, down more than 6%. Of course, with the Hang Seng Index, it is difficult to have the strong performance of the past few days. In particular, the Hang Seng technology stock index also fell significantly due to the sharp decline of Tencent and other Internet technology stocks.
Shuipi has repeatedly reminded you that as long as the U.S. stock market plummets, it will have an impact on the opening of a shares. Therefore, it is conceivable that the three major A-share indexes opened low today. However, there has been a basic judgment on this impact on the water surface, that is, the opening. In fact, today’s situation is exactly the same as shuipi’s previous judgment. Today, the Shanghai composite index opened 1.27% lower and the Shenzhen composite index opened 1.4% lower. It should be said that the range of low opening is still relatively large. However, after that, the share price gradually rose. Finally, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 0.36%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.37% and the gem rose by 0.50%. In other words, today is the fifth time that the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have opened low and gone high recently. And there is a background here: whether it is “two barrels of oil” or “two bottles of wine”, there is no protection sector today; Financial stocks did not protect the market, and even Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) could not be regarded as protecting the market; It is generally conceivable that heavyweight index stocks such as Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) did not protect the market. In other words, it is very rare for today’s index to go like this without the arrangement of market protection force. It is also a manifestation of the internal driving force of A-share price.
Today, not only the index rose, the key is that most stocks rose. Today, more than 2770 stocks rose and only 1792 fell. Today’s trading volume has also been enlarged compared with the previous two days. Although it is not much, it has exceeded 800 billion after all. It should be said that it is equivalent to a large-scale recovery after low opening. Today’s northward capital is also very interesting. As soon as the market opened, it was firmly inflow. The inflow was 2.5 billion in the morning and 5.1 billion in the afternoon.
If there is a difference, that is, the inflow of Shanghai Stock connect in the morning is relatively small. The inflow of Shanghai Stock connect in the morning is 720 million and that of Shenzhen Stock connect is 1.8 billion; In the afternoon, the Shanghai Stock connect flowed in again, rising to 2.7 billion. It should be said that northbound capital has reached a consensus with mainland investors. Now the trend of the index has been opening low and going high again and again, which proves that the downward space is indeed effectively blocked. When does the uplink space open? It’s not clear yet, but after several twists and turns in the downlink space, we should have a clear idea.
Shuipi thinks that the current situation is very beneficial to the restoration of everyone’s confidence. At present, the market situation is the same as that in war. The game between the long and short sides in the stock market is the same as that between the enemy and ourselves on the battlefield. It is easy to remind people of Chairman Mao Zedong’s famous treatise on protracted war during the war of resistance against Japan. In fact, isn’t the stock market a “war of attack and defense that can’t see the smoke of gunpowder and occurs every day”?
A war is generally divided into three stages – first, there is a stage of strategic defense for the defender, then it will transition to the stage of strategic stalemate, and finally into the stage of strategic attack. Of course, for the attacking side, there is also such a situation – first, strategic attack, then strategic stalemate, and finally long and short reversal into strategic defense.
It’s still a time for the formation of A-share strategy to shift to qualitative change. However, the management has frequently introduced economic stabilization measures recently, and the executive meeting of the State Council has also been held again and again, constantly saying that it is necessary to strengthen macro-control policies, mainly “stabilize the economy, ensure employment and ensure people’s livelihood”, which also requires a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. With the warming weather and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control, shuipi believes that investors will be more and more optimistic in the future. When the mood is reversed, the capital trading will be active, and the upward space of the market will naturally open at that time. Now, of course, we still need to wait and be patient.
One sentence comment: one punch to open, lest a hundred punches come.
