U.S. stocks fell sharply overnight, which also affected the low opening of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today (May 19). At the beginning of the session, the stock index fell again and again. Then, the stock index fluctuated repeatedly. Near noon, there was a wave of shock rising trend of the stock index, and the overall trend was strong.
On the disk, the light index and heavy stocks reappeared, led by the new energy track led by photovoltaic, battery and wind power, and the sectors such as real estate, automobile and covid-19 drugs made a comeback. The rise and fall of the industry and concept sectors were different, and the local profit-making effect still existed.
It is worth mentioning that in the photovoltaic equipment sector, as of press time, Jiangsu Zhongli Group Co.Ltd(002309) , Clenergy(Xiamen)Technology Co.Ltd(603628) double 3-board; In covid-19 drug sector, Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited(000756) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , etc. rose by the limit, China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) , Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600267) , etc. performed prominently; In terms of the whole vehicle, Zhongtong Bus Co.Ltd(000957) raised the limit, Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.Ltd(000868) , Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.Ltd(600686) , Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) and so on.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that under the restraint of external conflicts and the downward trend of China's economy, market risk appetite has been suppressed, the upward trend is weak, and the rebound space of the index may be relatively limited. In the near future, we may pay attention to the possibility of periodic decline. The medium-term proposal focuses on the market value stocks, real estate chain and oversold growth sectors.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] photovoltaic equipment
Huaxin securities mentioned that China's manufacturing industry is in a period of continuous transformation and upgrading, which will bring broad market space to the high-end equipment industry and maintain the industry's "overweight" rating. Focus on industrial automation and high-end machine tool equipment, self controllable semiconductor equipment, carbon neutralization accelerating new energy industry that is in line with the direction of industrial upgrading and the trend of import substitution, which is better than the photovoltaic equipment and lithium battery equipment sector, the detection and inspection industry of Changpo thick snow long track attribute, and the oil service industry that is gradually recovering under the promotion of energy security.
At the current time point, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) continues to be firmly optimistic about the upward market of sector repair in May, and reiterates our view on the upward prosperity of the industry: 1) the demand at home and abroad is still strong, and the operating rate has not decreased. 2) The first quarter report is excellent, and the second quarter will continue. 3) Near the "630" grid connection time node, the ground power station needs to be started gradually; The construction of distributed projects has also resumed with the promotion of China's resumption of work and the gradual easing of logistics. We believe that in the short term, the data of photovoltaic in the first quarter is strong. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the photovoltaic industry may continue to recommend at the bottom. The order of subdivision is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
In addition, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain is still rising, and the new supply of silicon materials is increasing month by month. However, under the background of the release of new capacity of silicon wafers and the high demand for crystal pulling, it is expected that the supply of silicon materials will remain in short supply in the first half of this year, supporting the high price of silicon materials. Driven by the rising cost side, component prices have also increased. At present, Chinese components maintain high prices, which has a certain impact on downstream demand.
(screenshot from Dongguan Securities Research Report)
[Topic 2] covid-19 drugs
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) mentioned that the research and development of domestic covid-19 drugs continued to advance. A variety of antiviral treatments, neutralizing antibodies and cytokine immunomodulators around the world have been authorized for emergency use (EUA), forming a multi-level prevention and treatment system other than vaccines. Oral small molecule drugs represented by Pfizer paxlovid and mosadon molnupiravir have been approved for listing successively, and paxlovid has also been approved for listing with conditions in China. China has actively developed covid-19 treatment series drugs, among which the neutralizing antibody therapy of tengshengbo medicine has been approved for listing in China; The registered clinical trials of domestic oral innovative drugs are expected to be unblinded in the near future.
The Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , integrated leader of API preparation, etc. At the same time, as the current round of epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, it is suggested to grasp the valuation repair after the oversold of medical services and consumption under the expectation of epidemic repair.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that in the stage of covid-19 normalization prevention and control, domestic covid-19 specific drugs are also urgently needed to make up for the shortcomings. The research and development of covid-19 specific drugs in China is also advancing rapidly. Azvudine, a real organism that has completed phase III clinical trials, and prochloramide, a pioneer in the pharmaceutical industry, has completed some phase III clinical trials. Vv116 of Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) is currently progressing to phase III clinical trials. At the same time, the upstream and downstream production and marketing cooperation of covid-19 specific drugs is also arranged in advance. Recently Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited(000756) , China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) and other enterprises have signed relevant cooperation agreements with real organisms to cooperate in production and distribution. It's recommended to focus on the nucleic acid detection of covid-19 and the industry chain of the specific drug for covid-19, focus on the chain company of the nucleic acid detection industry chain for covid-19, and pay attention to the company for the industry chain for the nucleic acid detection of covid- 19, the Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) , Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited(000756) , China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , etc.
(screenshot from Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Research Report)
[Topic 3] complete vehicle
Dongguan Securities pointed out that with the gradual easing of the epidemic, Shanghai's automobile industry has fully resumed work, driving the automobile industry chain to accelerate the resumption of work and production. It is expected to resume normal production in late May.
Many ministries and commissions vigorously promote automobile consumption, and a new round of automobile to the countryside policy is expected to be introduced in the near future. Since May, Guangdong, Shenyang and other places have successively introduced policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, such as car purchase subsidies. As one of the key supporting industries for the country to achieve the expected goal of stable growth, the automobile industry will be supplemented by production and sales after the epidemic is alleviated, ushering in restorative growth.
In the early stage, the sector experienced a sharp correction after the impact of the epidemic, the market fully released pessimistic expectations, superimposed marginal improvement expectations, the valuation is expected to usher in repair and the configuration value is expected to reappear. It's suggested to focus attention on: under the opportunity of industrial change, and the opportunity of industrial change, self owned vehicle brands with rising competitiveness under the opportunity of industrial change. Self owned vehicle brands: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Byd Company Limited(002594) , Foryou Corporation(002906) .
Huafu Securities said that the auto sector market is finally based on demand repair, and we are strategically optimistic. When the relative returns of the automobile sector are obvious, they are in the stage of "upward demand cycle, active inventory increase or passive inventory removal, making the profit cycle upward". In the short term, after the policy expectation is implemented, the demand is expected to recover gradually; In the medium and long term, under the reform trend of electrification and intelligence, the rise trend of domestic vehicle manufacturers and parts manufacturers is obvious. We continue to be optimistic strategically and resolutely allocate on bargain hunting.
(screenshot from Huafu Securities Research Report)
[theme 4] real estate
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that the recent favorable real estate policies are frequent, which reflects the policy's determination to resolve real estate risks. At present, real estate sales are still unstable and the liquidity difficulties of real estate enterprises have not been solved. We can look forward to the introduction and implementation of more real estate support policies, pay attention to the possibility of LPR reduction in May, continue to increase the relaxation of the demand side of urban implementation policies, and tap the rigid purchase demand of new citizens and the demand for improved housing for filial piety and elderly care. Under the policy intensive underpinning, the market's confidence in real estate is expected to accelerate the recovery, promote the improvement of sales collection and financing of real estate enterprises, and the inflection point of real estate sales is expected to arrive in advance. Pay attention to investment opportunities on the right. Strategically, high-quality central state-owned enterprises have allocation value. For the leaders of real estate private enterprises, on the premise of stable debt end, grasp the enterprise fundamentals and debt repayment willingness, and tap high-yield investment opportunities.
In addition, Ping An Securities said that under the background of steady growth, the policy strength and urban energy level continued to expand, and the subsequent sales stabilized, pending the effective control of the epidemic. With the implementation of policy transmission and the gradual weakening of the high base effect in the first half of the year, we believe that the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter are important observation nodes for sales.
In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the deep ploughing real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and real estate service providers 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) , which benefit from the improvement of Hangzhou's policies. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in this painful period, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of strong operation and high credit real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. Development suggestions focus on strong operation, high credit enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Shenzhen Tagen Group Co.Ltd(000090) , and Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc., as well as the subject of policy game flexibility. The valuation of the property management sector has reached a record low, and the improvement of the policy side is also expected to bring the valuation repair of high-quality property management enterprises. Pay attention to country garden services, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Xincheng Yue services, Jinke services, Xingsheng commerce, etc.
At the same time, Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) mentioned that with the decline of the epidemic and the intensive implementation of policies, sales will gradually pick up, and high-energy cities with good demand support will take the lead in recovery, while low-energy cities need stronger demand support policies and a longer effective period of policies. The improvement of sales will promote the gradual stabilization of new construction and land acquisition, and the credit creation ability of real estate and the driving ability of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will also be gradually restored. The recovery of real estate investment will also directly stimulate the recovery of demand in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, so as to effectively promote the healthy cycle of the national economy.
(screenshot from Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) Research Report)
