Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : optimistic about the strong growth of overseas demand for photovoltaic after May! Pay attention to the high growth and undervalued high-quality target of each sector
New energy power generation: the performance differentiation of subdivided sectors is obvious, and attention is paid to the profit improvement brought by marginal changes. The annual report and quarterly report of the overall sector achieved high growth. In terms of sub sectors, the volume of silicon material sector rose simultaneously, with the most obvious increase; The upstream price rise of silicon chip battery module integration sector transmission was smooth, and the profitability was repaired; The inverter / adhesive film / glass / support sector 22q1 shows profit pressure in varying degrees, mainly due to the rise of raw material prices and the lag of cost transmission, which put pressure on short-term performance. We are optimistic about the strong growth of overseas demand for photovoltaic after May, especially the component integration link with high export proportion. The epidemic has little impact on the photovoltaic production end. The depreciation of RMB exchange rate and the callback of International Asia Europe route freight are expected to thicken the performance of export products in the second quarter.
Wind power: the annual report of the whole sector has achieved high growth. In 2022q1, the performance of parts and components sectors such as Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) / Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) / Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) continues to grow. The business development of the company is restricted by multiple factors such as the downturn of shipment under the influence of the epidemic and the rise in the price of raw materials. We expect that in the future, once the price of raw materials falls or the epidemic situation improves, and the prosperity of the industry recovers, major enterprises will usher in profitable end repair.
In terms of investment suggestions, we should pay attention to the high growth, low value and high-quality targets of various sectors. [photovoltaic] Jingke energy, Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; [wind power] Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) ; [new energy construction and operator] Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) ; [lithium battery] Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
East Asia Qianhai Securities: the wind power landscape is expected to improve! With long-term growth space
Photovoltaic: from a long-term perspective, under the background of "double carbon" and the clear goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025, the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economy continues to improve, the demand for photovoltaic installation is high, and the growth certainty is strong. Related targets: 1) silicon material leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , with tight supply and demand pattern and high profitability; 2) Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; 3) Inverter taps benefiting from photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 4) Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules; 5) Subject to the short-term supply bottleneck of raw materials and limited market demand, the leading enterprises in EVA film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 6) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Wind power: in the short term, in 2022, the wind power industry will expand intensively, the pace of expansion is in a hurry, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost of the industry is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve "carbon neutrality". The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subject matter with cost advantage and technical core competitiveness: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , etc.
Wanlian Securities: strong photovoltaic demand at home and abroad, optimistic about battery module equipment
Photovoltaic equipment: there is a strong demand for photovoltaic at home and abroad, and we are optimistic about the link of battery module equipment. Since the beginning of this year, the construction of China's scenery base has accelerated. Overseas, affected by the conflict, Europe has increased photovoltaic investment, and India's photovoltaic demand has continued to grow. It is expected that with the gradual release of silicon production capacity by the end of 2022, the profitability of the industrial chain will be transmitted to the downstream battery and component links, driving battery manufacturers to invest in battery and component links. The battery equipment link mainly focuses on the performance increment brought by new technologies. The industrialization of new batteries such as TOPCON, hjt and XBC will continue in 2022. The component equipment link pays attention to the demand for equipment replacement under the penetration of flake + multi main grid propulsion and new battery technology.
Mechanical equipment: excavator sales continued to decline in April, and the repair process of two wheel drive market continued. In April, the sales volume of excavators was 24534, with a year-on-year increase of - 47.3%, including - 61.0% in China and + 55.2% abroad. The continuous decline of sales volume is mainly affected by multiple factors such as the industry entering a new round of adjustment cycle, high base in the same period of 2021, rising commodity prices, excessive ownership, weak downstream demand and so on. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation and the national real estate policy of Panasonic and the two wheel drive of infrastructure and real estate, the sales volume in the terminal market is expected to be gradually repaired, showing a trend of low before high.
Lithium battery equipment: the sales volume of new energy vehicles fell month on month in April due to the impact of the epidemic. In the middle of April, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles was 312000, up + 43.9% year on year and - 33.0% month on month; The sales volume was 299000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.6% and a month on month increase of - 38.3%. In April, the output of power battery was 29.0gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 124.1%; The installed capacity of power battery was 13.3gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 58.1%. Lithium battery equipment has fully benefited from the acceleration of global electrification and the active expansion of battery enterprises.
Huaxin Securities: photovoltaic equipment investment opportunities focusing on boom certainty
China's manufacturing industry is in a period of continuous transformation and upgrading, which will bring broad market space to the high-end equipment industry and maintain the industry's "overweight" rating.
Focus on industrial automation and high-end machine tool equipment, self controllable semiconductor equipment, carbon neutralization accelerating new energy industry that is in line with the direction of industrial upgrading and the trend of import substitution, which is better than the photovoltaic equipment and lithium battery equipment sector, the detection and inspection industry of Changpo thick snow long track attribute, and the oil service industry that is gradually recovering under the promotion of energy security.
Wanhe Securities: the demand for new energy power generation equipment remains strong, and the value of sector configuration increases
After the valuation adjustment since the beginning of the year, the market has digested the impact of adverse factors and performance decline to a certain extent. We believe that the demand for new energy power generation equipment remains strong. The current epidemic disturbing supply expectations and the supply and demand of raw materials are expected to usher in marginal improvement. It is expected that the probability of performance strengthening month on month is high and the value of sector allocation will increase.
It is suggested to pay attention to the following directions: (1) in the future, with the continuous release of silicon production capacity, the current situation that the excess profits of the industrial chain are concentrated in the upstream will be improved, and the decline of the price of the industrial chain will also actively promote the downstream demand. It is suggested to pay attention to the integrated module enterprises in the main industrial chain of photovoltaic equipment;
(2) in the future, with the downward trend of the price of the photovoltaic main material industry chain, the leading enterprises of the key auxiliary material industry chain will gradually reflect their cost transmission ability to the downstream, and the profit level is expected to improve. They pay attention to the top target of the sector with good competition pattern such as adhesive film;
(3) the installed capacity and bidding scale of wind power in China still maintain a relatively high scale. Under the background of high raw material prices, the leaders of wind power units actively reduce the cost of single watt with the help of large-scale units, have the ability of cost transmission and can maintain a considerable profit level. It is recommended to pay attention to them.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) : photovoltaic industry or double click! Subdivision sequence: silicon battery silicon wafer component
The valuations of all sectors of Dianxin are at the bottom, and most of the underlying valuations are similar to those in 2020. The impact of short-term market adjustment has weakened, so we should grasp the long-term logic. The decline space is limited in the future, and the rebound will continue. At present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance in the first quarter is strong, the growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest, and the demand for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) alternative fossil energy is increasing. It is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; Affected by the supply chain problems, the new energy vehicle sector fell in the short term, and the valuation reached a stage low. However, the battery enterprises were affected by the upstream raw materials, the first quarter report was not ideal, and the sales volume in April was lower than expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of undervaluation of high nickel ternary and copper foil.
New energy: at the current time, we continue to be firmly optimistic about the upward market of sector repair in May, and reiterate our view on the upward prosperity of the industry: 1) the demand at home and abroad is still strong, and the operating rate has not decreased. 2) The first quarter report is excellent, and the second quarter will continue. 3) Near the "630" grid connection time node, the ground power station needs to be started gradually; The construction of distributed projects has also resumed with the promotion of China's resumption of work and the gradual easing of logistics. We believe that in the short term, the data of photovoltaic in the first quarter is strong. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the photovoltaic industry may continue to recommend at the bottom. The order of subdivision is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, the long-term trend is good, but the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream main engines, so the growth rate is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level, and there are signs of loosening of upstream raw materials in the near future. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the future commencement of the industry and the catalysis brought to the sector by the price trend of raw materials.
Dongguan Securities: the overall price of photovoltaic industry chain is still rising
The overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain is still rising, and the new supply of silicon materials increases month by month. However, under the background of the release of new capacity of silicon wafers and the high demand for crystal pulling, it is expected that the supply of silicon materials will remain in short supply in the first half of this year, supporting the high price of silicon materials. Driven by the rising cost side, component prices have also increased. At present, Chinese components maintain high prices, which has a certain impact on downstream demand.
In addition, the rising price of export components has also affected the demand for goods in the European market. Under the background of the continuous price rise of the photovoltaic industry chain, the increase of silicon material supply in May, the gradual improvement of the production and transportation situation of Chinese enterprises and the safe supply of energy and electricity in China, the upstream raw material end is relatively benefited at present. It is suggested to pay attention to Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , which benefits from the simultaneous rise of silicon material price and volume; China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , benefiting from the rise of market-oriented transaction electricity price and the rapid growth of wind and solar new energy power generation; Benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure and the acceleration of UHV construction Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) .
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: promising opportunities for oversold rebound of growth tracks such as photovoltaic equipment in the field of mechanical equipment
China's epidemic situation has improved marginally, paying attention to the oversold rebound opportunities, and the field of mechanical equipment is optimistic about the oversold rebound opportunities of growth tracks such as photovoltaic equipment. The prosperity of the photovoltaic industry continues to rise, and the new installed capacity is expected to continue the growth trend. With the superposition of the iterative renewal needs of equipment brought by technological progress under the requirements of cost reduction and efficiency increase, the photovoltaic equipment industry is still a fine-grained industry with full growth in the field of Mechanical equipment and less affected by the epidemic. Benefiting from China's huge reserves of photovoltaic power generation projects, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 75-90gw in 2022. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's annual new installed capacity is expected to reach 70-90gw, the global new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 232286gw, and the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry is expected to continue.
In the context of carbon neutralization, cost reduction and efficiency increase is the main way to realize the rapid increase of the proportion of photovoltaic power generation. Higher conversion efficiency and lower production cost have become the industrial development trend. Equipment is the key link of cost reduction and efficiency increase, benefiting from the renewal demand brought by technological progress. As the p-type perc battery gradually reaches its theoretical efficiency, the cost performance advantage of the n-type battery process gradually appears, which is expected to enter the stage of large-scale industrialization and bring new demand to the equipment.
In terms of investment suggestions, since the beginning of the year, the adjustment range of the machinery sector has been deep, and the valuation is at a historically low quantile. In the long run, high-quality stocks in the boom track have high investment value. The key subdivisions include photovoltaic equipment (equipment investment brought by the industrialization of n-type battery), equipment related to new energy vehicles (equipment investment in lithium battery, hydrogen energy, energy storage, charging and replacement), industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , industrial mother machine Specialized in special and new fields.
