Today (May 19), affected by the sharp decline of U.S. stocks overnight, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, pulled sharply at the beginning of the market and fell again. Then the stock index fluctuated repeatedly. In the afternoon, the index remained near yesterday's closing point. At the end of the day, there was a wave of shock rising trend, and the overall trend was strong.
In this regard, Rongwei Securities said that after today's low opening, the shock rebounded, the intraday trend continued to fluctuate, and the late trading remained strong. The continuous rise in the early stage makes the technical trend better. In the future, shock consolidation is needed to make the index rise more powerful. On the whole, the risk of continuous adjustment in the early stage of the market has been released, and the short-term rebound is expected to continue. In terms of operation, control the position, throw high and absorb low or wait patiently.
At the same time, Guosheng securities previously mentioned that with the recovery of economic expectations, market risk appetite will gradually pick up. The worst stage of the short-term market has passed, so we should actively grasp the current round of index repair market. In terms of operation, we will continue to focus on track stocks with oversold rebound demand in the short term, such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, military industry and other related sectors, but it will take time for the sector to reverse, and pay attention to the rhythm.
sector:
I. photovoltaic equipment
Huaxin securities mentioned that China's manufacturing industry is in a period of continuous transformation and upgrading, which will bring broad market space to the high-end equipment industry and maintain the industry's "overweight" rating. Focus on industrial automation and high-end machine tool equipment, self controllable semiconductor equipment, carbon neutralization accelerating new energy industry that is in line with the direction of industrial upgrading and the trend of import substitution, which is better than the photovoltaic equipment and lithium battery equipment sector, the detection and inspection industry of Changpo thick snow long track attribute, and the oil service industry that is gradually recovering under the promotion of energy security.
At the current time point, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) continues to be firmly optimistic about the upward market of sector repair in May, and reiterates our view on the upward prosperity of the industry: 1) the demand at home and abroad is still strong, and the operating rate has not decreased. 2) The first quarter report is excellent, and the second quarter will continue. 3) Near the "630" grid connection time node, the ground power station needs to be started gradually; The construction of distributed projects has also resumed with the promotion of China's resumption of work and the gradual easing of logistics. We believe that in the short term, the data of photovoltaic in the first quarter is strong. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the photovoltaic industry may continue to recommend at the bottom. The order of subdivision is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
In addition, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain is still rising, and the new supply of silicon materials is increasing month by month. However, under the background of the release of new capacity of silicon wafers and the high demand for crystal pulling, it is expected that the supply of silicon materials will remain in short supply in the first half of this year, supporting the high price of silicon materials. Driven by the rising cost side, component prices have also increased. At present, Chinese components maintain high prices, which has a certain impact on downstream demand.
In addition, the rising price of export components has also affected the demand for goods in the European market. Under the background of the continuous price rise of the photovoltaic industry chain, the increase of silicon material supply in May, the gradual improvement of the production and transportation situation of Chinese enterprises and the safe supply of energy and electricity in China, the upstream raw material end is relatively benefited at present. It is suggested to pay attention to Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , which benefits from the simultaneous rise of silicon material price and volume; China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , benefiting from the rise of market-oriented transaction electricity price and the rapid growth of wind and solar new energy power generation; Benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure and the acceleration of UHV construction Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) .
II. Real estate development
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) mentioned that with the decline of the epidemic and the intensive implementation of policies, sales will gradually pick up, and high-energy cities with good demand support will take the lead in recovery, while low-energy cities need stronger demand support policies and longer effective period of policies. The improvement of sales will promote the gradual stabilization of new construction and land acquisition, and the credit creation ability of real estate and the driving ability of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will also be gradually restored. The recovery of real estate investment will also directly stimulate the recovery of demand in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, so as to effectively promote the healthy cycle of the national economy.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that the recent favorable real estate policies are frequent, which reflects the policy's determination to resolve real estate risks. At present, real estate sales are still unstable and the liquidity difficulties of real estate enterprises have not been solved. We can look forward to the introduction and implementation of more real estate support policies, pay attention to the possibility of LPR reduction in May, continue to increase the relaxation of the demand side of urban implementation policies, and tap the rigid purchase demand of new citizens and the demand for improved housing for filial piety and elderly care. Under the policy intensive underpinning, the market's confidence in real estate is expected to accelerate the recovery, promote the improvement of sales collection and financing of real estate enterprises, and the inflection point of real estate sales is expected to arrive in advance. Pay attention to investment opportunities on the right. Strategically, high-quality central state-owned enterprises have allocation value. For the leaders of real estate private enterprises, on the premise of stable debt end, grasp the enterprise fundamentals and debt repayment willingness, and tap high-yield investment opportunities.
In addition, Ping An Securities said that under the background of steady growth, the policy strength and urban energy level continued to expand, and the subsequent sales stabilized, pending the effective control of the epidemic. With the implementation of policy transmission and the gradual weakening of the high base effect in the first half of the year, we believe that the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter are important observation nodes for sales.
In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the deep ploughing real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and real estate service providers 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) , which benefit from the improvement of Hangzhou's policies. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in this painful period, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of strong operation and high credit real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. Development suggestions focus on strong operation, high credit enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Shenzhen Tagen Group Co.Ltd(000090) , and Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc., as well as the subject of policy game flexibility. The valuation of the property management sector has reached a record low, and the improvement of the policy side is also expected to bring the valuation repair of high-quality property management enterprises. Pay attention to country garden services, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Xincheng Yue services, Jinke services, Xingsheng commerce, etc.
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