Shanghai is a window to observe China’s economy, and Shanghai’s commercial real estate market is also a specimen of insight into China’s commercial real estate market. In the past 2021, the net absorption of Shanghai office market reached a record high, the vacancy rate decreased, the recovery trend was obvious, and the demand for rent expansion in science and technology, new media, biomedicine and other industries was obvious. In the retail property market, the driving effect of medium and high-end fashion brands is obvious, and the catering brand has become the main demand.
the vacancy rate of office buildings decreased significantly, and the rent level rebounded for the first time in many years
2021 is a year of comprehensive recovery of Shanghai high-quality office market. According to the latest data released by Jones Lang LaSalle, the net absorption of Shanghai office market totaled 1.506 million square meters in 2021. In 2021, driven by the expansion of domestic financial service industry, professional service industry, new technology media and retail industry, the net absorption of Shanghai CBD reached 413000 square meters.
Jiangsu, the project agency service director of Jones Lang LaSalle Shanghai commercial real estate department, said: “in addition to the domestic technology and new media industry driving the demand of non central business district, the leasing transactions in the manufacturing trade industry have accelerated, and the leasing demand in the medical and health industry has also increased.”
The demand for rent expansion in the manufacturing industry is obvious. In 2021, the capacity of Shanghai Zhangjiang medical device industry base will be expanded from 1.38 square kilometers to 4.23 square kilometers. The expanded base will provide development space for more medical device enterprises and turn more “Zhangjiang R & D” to “Zhangjiang intelligent manufacturing”.
The financial industry is the core industry of Shanghai, and Shanghai has basically built an international financial center commensurate with China’s economic strength and the international status of RMB. The trading volume of the financial industry remains at the forefront, and the industry layout focuses on the Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) financial city and the riverside belt of the North Bund. Since 2021, the integration and relocation of new financial industries such as banks, securities and financial leasing in the traditional financial industry have been more active.
Wei Chaoying, China’s regional Cushman & Wakefield project manager and director of Corporate Services Department, said that in 2021, Shanghai office market showed three characteristics: first, the three mainstream industries of finance, electronic information technology and professional services have attracted a lot of attention. Secondly, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) , Nanjing West Road, Qiantan, North Bund and Hongqiao Business District focus on the urban growth pole; Third, under the new development pattern with China’s big cycle as the main body, the proportion of domestic capital transactions continues to rise.
CBRE is concerned that as ESG is widely concerned, health and safety has become a long-term demand of tenants, green buildings continue to record good rent performance, and the overall rent premium is more than 20%.
Zhang Yue, head of consulting and trading service office building department of CBRE Lihua East District, said that in the next six months, about 870000 new volumes are expected to enter the Shanghai office market, including many long-awaited high-quality projects, which are concentrated in Xuhui Binjiang, Qiantan, North Bund and suhewan in the waterfront area along the “one river and one river”, In order to quickly undertake the quality improvement and transformation needs of the development energy level and core competitiveness centralized exhibition area of international metropolis in 2022, we will provide plenty of high-quality office space choices.
the first store gathers in Shanghai, and the high-quality retail property market is active
At the end of 2021, Adidas Neo opened a global experience center in Nanjing East Road, a landmark block in Shanghai, opening up new space for offline retail. The new store is an immersive experience space tailored by Adidas Neo for generation Z. the super large shopping space with two floors gathers a variety of products. The architectural design and space scenes are also embedded with the connotation of young trends, providing generation Z with a multi-directional consumption place integrating leisure shopping, entertainment exchange and cultural experience.
According to the data of Shanghai Municipal Bureau of statistics, the economy of Shanghai maintained rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2021, and the retail sales of social consumer goods in Shanghai reached 1327.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. Thanks to the support of economic growth, the development of medium and high-end retail property market remained active in the fourth quarter of 2021.
CBRE data show that the new supply of Shanghai retail property market in 2021 reached 1255000 square meters, which has exceeded the average annual level during the supply peak period from 2016 to 2018. Thanks to the careful creation of high-quality developers, the opening rate of new projects is generally high, and the continuous de commercialization of stock projects, the annual net absorption exceeded the million mark, recording a height of 1.192 million square meters, close to the peak level in 2018.
Shanghai’s first store continues to lead the country, and many Asian and national first stores have settled in Shanghai, which has become an important driving force for the high-quality retail property market. Such as the Swiss high-end handmade chocolate brand Ledla entered the trade, luxehome brand Valentino Beauty, the first flagship store in mainland China landed in the new world, Italy fashion brand MISSONI and professional outdoor sports brand HOKA ONE ONE first national store in Jingan Jiali center.
“In the next six months, the Shanghai retail property market is expected to usher in 420000 square meters of new supply, which will further improve the commercial layout of non core sectors, create new consumption landmarks, and comprehensively improve the urban commercial function and consumption environment.” Said Shino, head of CBRE Lihua East Consulting and trading services business department.
there is a strong demand for rent expansion in the industrial park, and the investment transaction returns to the leading
In 2021, Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co.Ltd(688036) expanded the lease area of 10000 square meters in baijiatong Park of Zhangjiang plate; United Automotive Electronics expanded the lease area of 8000 square meters in Shanghai 5g Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) innovation park. As the development momentum of strategic emerging industries continues to increase, the rental demand of high-end manufacturing enterprises is increasing.
The data show that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the net absorption of Shanghai Industrial Park recorded 123000 square meters, and a total of 720000 square meters in 2021, a new high in recent five years.
In Pudong New Area of Shanghai, where industrial parks are relatively concentrated, macro data also reflect the improvement of economic heat of industrial parks. At the recent two sessions of the Pudong New Area, hang Yingwei, head of the Pudong New Area, revealed the economic report card of Pudong in 2021 – the estimated regional GDP of Pudong New Area in 2021 will reach about 1.45 trillion yuan, an increase of about 10% year-on-year.
According to Jones Lang LaSalle, the limited new supply and active rental demand reduced the overall vacancy rate of Shanghai Industrial Park to 10.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021, reaching an all-time low. In the fourth quarter, the overall rent continued to rise, with a month on month increase of 1.0% to 4.6 yuan per square meter per day, and the annual rent increased by 3.2%.
In terms of commercial real estate investment market, 89 transactions were recorded in Shanghai block trading market in 2021, and the annual total transaction volume returned to 100 billion, reaching 104.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. CBRE said that the number of transactions in a single quarter in Shanghai rose quarter by quarter, and investment transactions returned to the dominant position.
Wang Jing, head of CBRE Lihua East investment and capital market department, said, “It is expected that in the first half of 2022, the strong recovery of the rental market will provide support for the liquidity of office buildings and retail properties; the investment heat of warehousing and logistics is expected to continue; asset types such as life science park, data center and long-term rental apartment will become a new track for more and more investors; the measures of developers to adjust their asset structure will continue under this background , more and more high-quality assets will flow into the market in the short term, thus providing investors with more choices. “
