On the 14th, “Ningbo Shipping Exchange” wechat released the analysis of the container shipping market in 2021 and the outlook for 2022, which mentioned that in terms of shipping demand and capacity supply, it is expected that the overall freight rate will remain high in 2022, but there is a possibility of falling compared with Datong in the second half of 2022.
Ningbo Shipping Exchange said that in 2021, the global epidemic gradually changed into a temporary epidemic prevention blockade in some countries and regions, and the economic activities of major countries reopened. At the same time, with the support of loose monetary policy and large-scale fiscal stimulus, the global economy recovered significantly, and the demand for international trade in goods increased significantly year-on-year. From January to December 2021, China’s import and export trade volume reached US $5.9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, and the export trade volume reached US $3.4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. The cargo throughput and container throughput of most major ports in China have increased to varying degrees. Among them, the container throughput of Shanghai port, Ningbo Zhoushan port, Shenzhen port, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) , Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) from January to November increased by more than 8.0% year-on-year.
It is reported that the container shipping market is extremely hot. Under the influence of strong demand and insufficient capacity, the route freight rate continues to rise on the basis of the high level in 2020. Ningbo export container freight index (ncfi) data show that in 2021, the average value of ncfi composite index was 3255.7 points, an increase of 218.4% over 2020 and 374.2% over 2019.
The freight rates of major international routes in 2021 have increased to varying degrees compared with the average annual rate of 2020, among which the average market price of 40 foot TEUs of European routes has increased by 420.0% compared with 2020; In 2021, the average market price of 40 foot TEUs on US East and US West routes increased by 388.7% and 524.6% respectively compared with 2019 ; As of December 31, 2021, the average market price of 40 foot TEUs of Thailand Vietnam and Singapore Malaysia routes closed at 2996 USD / feu and 3796 USD / feu respectively, increased by 103.4% and 72.3% respectively compared with the same period in 2020.
Ningbo Shipping Exchange said that although the current high sea freight and strict epidemic prevention control have restrained some export demand, the overall demand in the shipping market is still very strong, and the strong demand will continue until the Spring Festival holiday at the end of January 2022. At the same time, the congestion of overseas ports has intensified and the supply of transport capacity has been limited. Therefore, the shipping market before the festival is expected to continue the state of high freight rates and tight shipping spaces, and will “cool down” after February. from the perspective of shipping demand and capacity supply, it is expected that the overall freight rate will remain high in 2022, but there is a great possibility of year-on-year decline in the second half of 2022 .
Specifically, in terms of shipping demand, the global economy has entered a new stage of “coexistence with the epidemic”, and the changes in the shipping market are more closely related to the trend of Global trade and economy. The WTO predicts that the growth rate of global exports will increase by 4.7% year-on-year in 2022, maintaining a low growth rate, but higher than the growth rate of transport capacity. In the long cycle of low global economic growth and anti globalization, under the background of resonant contraction of overseas demand policy in 2022, overheated commodity demand cannot be sustained for a long time. U.S. financial subsidies have been officially withdrawn in September 2021, but the bargaining level of workers has increased significantly due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market, resulting in abnormally high wage growth in the United States and delaying the cooling of China’s exports to a certain extent. However, without subsidies, the overheated commodity consumption demand of overseas economies will gradually cool down. Many economies, including the EU, continue to face disruptions and disruptions related to the epidemic, which may affect consumer demand in 2022.
In terms of transport capacity supply, before the epidemic, the container shipping market has been in a state of excess space, and the problem of lack of containers has never occurred in the market. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the urgent market demand for ship accommodation and container equipment has prompted liner companies to order new ships and container companies to expand production capacity. In terms of new shipbuilding, affected by the early trade tariff and covid-19 epidemic, there are only a few new ship orders from 2018 to 2020, so the delivery of new ships will be significantly reduced from 2021 to 2022. The overall ship capacity of the container market will not change much in 2022, while a large number of new ship orders since the second half of 2020 are expected to be delivered in 2023. According to alphaliner’s latest data, the ship capacity in 2021, 2022 and 2023 increased by 4.7%, 4.2% and 8.9% respectively year-on-year (the growth rate of ship capacity during 2019-2020 was less than 4.0%).
In terms of new containers, there are more than 40 million containers in the world, and the annual elimination rate of old containers is 5%, about 2 million (3-4 million TEU). However, CIMC alone has more than 2 million TEU in the first three quarters of this year. If the port continues to be congested and the capacity turnover efficiency fails to be fundamentally improved, the problem of lack of space and containers may still make a comeback; However, if the epidemic situation is effectively controlled and the logistics is restored smoothly, there may be a more serious surplus of shipping space and empty containers.
At the same time, the liner company has explored a business model of “removing capacity and ensuring freight price” and obtained good benefits. With the increasing dependence of the market on the supply of capacity, the liner company can continue to take measures to ensure freight price according to its own loading rate at any time.
