Affected by the epidemic, China’s air passenger throughput and port cargo throughput decreased significantly in December 2021, but still rebounded compared with November. Although affected by the epidemic prevention and control in the short term, the operation data of airlines pick up and press the pause button, brokerage analysts are still optimistic about the improvement of industry demand.
in December, the overall transportation capacity decreased year-on-year
In terms of passenger transport capacity investment (calculated by available seat kilometers), the passenger transport capacity investment of airlines decreased significantly year-on-year in December last year, but it still rebounded compared with November last year.
China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) (600029) and its subsidiaries’ passenger transport capacity investment decreased by 31.96% year-on-year.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) (601021) passenger transport capacity investment increased by 10.29% month on month and decreased by 21.63% year-on-year.
Air China Limited(601111) (601111) passenger transport capacity investment decreased by 33.3% year-on-year and increased by 30.8% month on month.
In terms of passenger turnover (calculated by revenue passenger kilometers), the data of many airlines in December last year decreased by about 30% year-on-year, and the passenger seat rate was about 60%. Among them, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) has a seating rate of more than 70%, and the decline in passenger turnover is smaller than that of other airlines.
China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) passenger turnover decreased by 37.35% year-on-year; The seating rate was 64.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.58 percentage points.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) passenger turnover increased by 7.15% month on month and decreased by 26.16% year on year; The average seating rate was 74.74%, with a month on month decrease of 2.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.58%; The total number of passengers carried was 1.35 million, an increase of 5.21% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%.
China’s air passenger turnover decreased by 37.4% year-on-year and increased by 40.1% month on month; The average seating rate was 63.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1 percentage points and a month on month increase of 4.2 percentage points.
Xiamen International Airport Co.Ltd(600897) (600897) passenger throughput was 948500 person times, a year-on-year decrease of 43.87%.
In terms of China’s freight transport, the throughput of many airlines and ports in December last year was also lower than that in the same period in 2020, but the capacity and carrying rate of Air China Limited(601111) increased steadily.
China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) freight capacity investment (calculated according to available ton kilometers – freight and mail transportation) decreased by 15.18% year-on-year; Freight and mail turnover (calculated by revenue ton kilometers – freight and mail transportation) increased by 4.50% year-on-year; The freight and mail carrying rate was 58.04%, a year-on-year increase of 10.93 percentage points.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) freight capacity investment decreased by 10.79% year-on-year, freight and mail turnover decreased by 14.62% year-on-year, and freight and mail carrying rate was 75.36%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.38 percentage points.
Air China Limited(601111) freight capacity investment increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and freight and mail turnover increased by 9.3% year-on-year; The freight carrying rate was 38.9%, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points.
Xiamen International Airport Co.Ltd(600897) cargo and mail throughput was 26000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.12%.
the market is optimistic about the improvement of industry demand
Although affected by the epidemic situation in some regions, the airline operation data recovered and pressed the pause button, with the comprehensive promotion of vaccines, the intensification of drug research and development, and the orderly implementation of prevention and control measures, all parties in the market continue to be optimistic about the improvement of sector demand and the recovery of performance.
Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of transport jointly issued the civil aviation development plan for the 14th five year plan. It is pointed out that the passenger transport volume is expected to reach 930 million person times in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 5.9% in six years (since 2019).
According to the plan, 2021-2022 is the recovery period and savings period. In combination with epidemic prevention and control, we should regulate the delivery of transportation capacity, accumulate development momentum and promote the recovery and growth of the industry; 2023-2025 is the growth period and release period, expanding the Chinese market, restoring the international market and promoting the high-quality development of civil aviation in an all-round way.
Industry insiders pointed out that according to the 14th five year plan, by 2025, China’s civil aviation passenger traffic will maintain a growth rate equivalent to GDP growth. Under the condition of low supply growth in the medium term, the industry is expected to usher in a reversal of supply and demand.
In addition, the Spring Festival homecoming is carried out in an orderly manner, and the demand for air travel is expected to improve year-on-year.
Many provinces and cities have made it clear that nucleic acid certificates are required for returning home. The Ministry of transport, together with 14 departments, issued the opinions on doing a good job in the spring transportation in 2022, requiring epidemic prevention and control, ensuring the safe and orderly flow of personnel, and resolutely preventing one size fits all and overweight at all levels.
On January 4, Air China, HNA, Tianjin airlines, Kunming Airlines and other airlines issued a notice to cancel the collection of fuel surcharges on Chinese routes from 0:00 on January 5, 2022 (ticket issuing date) in accordance with the spirit of relevant documents of the national development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration.
Anson securities transportation industry analysts believe that on the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic is basically over. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed travel demand is expected to recover explosively. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, Boeing and Airbus orders accumulate, and even the 737max go around still does not change the low growth of transport capacity. The low growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation fares opens up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward fare, and aviation is expected to usher in a growth cycle.
