With the acceleration of the national “double carbon” goal, the electrification route has attracted widespread attention not only in the field of passenger vehicles, but also in commercial vehicles, especially heavy truck tracks, which is regarded as the next “blue ocean” in the industry.
Industry insiders proposed that the change of subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will become a major factor to heat up the sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2022. In the medium and long term, the promotion of new energy heavy trucks ushers in an opportunity period under the requirements of green and low-carbon development. However, in addition to comprehensive factors such as technical performance and infrastructure, the industry needs to break through bottlenecks such as low economic efficiency and long return cycle of charging and replacement facilities in order to achieve considerable development.
the sales of new energy heavy trucks have increased greatly, and the track continues to pour into new forces
According to the data of the Institute of high technology industry, from January to November 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) heavy trucks was 7426, a year-on-year increase of 223%. Among them, electric heavy commercial vehicles have entered the market with a strong power exchange mode, and their sales area focuses on the Hebei market, accounting for about 68%, of which Tangshan city accounts for about 35%.
Public data show that from January to November 2021, Sany pure electric heavy trucks sold 1194 units, accounting for 16.08% of the market in this segment.
Synchronized with the significant increase in sales, major automobile enterprises have laid out the field of new energy heavy trucks. In 2021, Sany Heavy Truck launched more than 30 new energy products, including “Jiangshan” ev550 and ev490, with optional battery capacity of 282kwh and 350kwh. It has been widely used in major steel enterprises, mines and ports such as Hebei, Xinjiang and Tianjin.
In addition, Tesla launched semi new energy heavy truck as early as 2017, which is expected to be delivered in 2022; In November 2021, Geely’s remote automobile officially released the new energy intelligent luxury heavy truck – remote Xinghan H (English Name: homtruck), and the new car is planned to be officially launched in 2024.
In January 8th, the brand of the yuan mobile new energy vehicle was officially launched in the Shanghai center. It is reported that Yuandong new energy is committed to solving the pain points of large power consumption, heavy battery and long charging time of electric heavy trucks in the market. It will build a new energy ehdt general electrification platform based on 6×4 semi-trailer tractor and taking into account the vehicle product design requirements, and develop a series of vehicle products on this platform. The product is expected to achieve small batch production in 2 to 3 years.
promoting new energy heavy trucks into green and low-carbon development is an inevitable requirement
In fact, with the transformation of energy structure to a green and low-carbon cycle, the carbon emissions of vehicles in the whole life cycle will be greatly reduced and contribute to the consumption of renewable energy. Han Yajuan, senior engineer of China Consulting Corporation, said in an interview with Xinhua Finance and economics that the promotion of new energy heavy trucks has become an important way to achieve green and low-carbon development and control pollutant emission in the field of highway freight transportation.
“According to the emission data of pollutants from mobile sources published by the Ministry of ecological environment, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) of heavy trucks” Emissions account for more than 50% of vehicle emissions. Heavy trucks with a small base and a large proportion of pollution have become the key areas of emission control. In 2021, highway freight volume accounted for the largest proportion in China’s overall transportation mode, reaching more than 70% in 2020. New energy heavy trucks have been paid more and more attention. ” Han Yajuan said that at present, the new energy heavy truck with vehicle power separation mode can realize 5-minute rapid power exchange, breaking through the bottleneck in the use of pure electric heavy truck in heavy load and low-speed scenarios such as ports, mines and power plants.
Ma Deren, chairman of Yuandong new energy, also believes that China has more than 15 million traditional fuel heavy trucks and construction machinery, with high fuel consumption and heavy pollution. The annual fuel consumption is equivalent to 200 million cars. The pure electric heavy truck market has entered a period of rapid development with policy support, especially the pure electric mineral truck, muck truck and other special vehicles, which have been widely recognized by the market due to their obvious economy and high emission reduction.
Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, also said that from the perspective of purchase cost, the purchase cost of heavy trucks is about four or five million yuan, but the fuel cost in the whole life cycle is about two or three million yuan, and the fuel cost is the largest cost. The biggest advantage of electric trucks is low energy cost. According to the current battery price and comprehensive cost, the replacement truck will have a certain competitive advantage.
Policy changes are a major factor in boosting the sales of new energy heavy trucks. At the end of December 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice that the subsidy for new energy vehicle purchase will decline by another 30%, and determined that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicle purchase will be terminated on December 31, 2022. Industry insiders believe that the regulation may trigger a blowout in the sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2022, especially the sales of port logistics and urban special vehicles.
In addition, the new energy heavy truck provides an important application scenario for the verification of automatic driving technology, and the maturity of automatic driving technology will in turn effectively reduce the operation cost of new energy heavy truck, thus contributing to the commercialization and promotion of new energy heavy truck. Han Yajuan said that the use scenarios of new energy heavy trucks are mostly fixed lines in closed areas, which are highly consistent with the level of automatic driving technology at this stage, which is conducive to the iterative upgrading and scene verification of automatic driving technology, accumulate actual driving data and lay the foundation for commercialization.
expert: Policy dividends will continue to be released, and technical bottlenecks need to be further overcome
Experts believe that under the promotion of the “double carbon” goal and a series of policies, the new energy heavy truck will usher in further development, but the technical bottleneck in the industry also needs to be overcome.
Han Yajuan believes that in the heavy truck industry, users are more sensitive to the vehicle sales price and operating cost. Therefore, in the process of its development, the high vehicle price, long charging time, short mileage, imperfect infrastructure and lower economy than fuel heavy truck have also plagued the new energy heavy truck for a long time.
For example, the duration of low temperature in winter is long, and the endurance mileage of electric heavy truck is shortened; The total amount of charging and replacement facilities is small, and a charging and replacement network with perfect layout, moderate density and reasonable price has not been formed, which restricts the development of new energy heavy trucks; Low utilization rate, low return on investment and long payback period of charging and replacing infrastructure may also reduce the investment enthusiasm of enterprises.
Therefore, Han Yajuan proposed that it is urgent to find a breakthrough in the business model, promote the reasonable and orderly construction of charging and replacement facilities and the promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks. “In the future, under the comprehensive effects of \’double carbon\’ and energy conservation and emission reduction policy guidance, continuous innovation of business model and iterative upgrading of battery technology, new energy heavy trucks are expected to break through difficulties and usher in new development opportunities.”
Ms. pechova Petra, general manager of Air France, believes that in addition to strengthening investment in pure electricity, the investment in hydrogen energy equipment is also a direction in the field of new energy commercial vehicles. It is reported that air liquide will invest more than 8 billion euros in production, equipment, assets, production capacity and high-precision technology research and development before 2035 to ensure the production and supply of green hydrogen on the industrial scale.
