Key investment points
Global: the high growth momentum of new energy vehicles remains. According to the latest data of marklines, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles in 22q1 increased by 85% year-on-year to 2.03 million, and the high growth momentum remains. Among them, the sales volume in China, Europe and the United States were 1.200, 533 and 215000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 145.8%, 19.5% and 72.4%. With the continuous development of policies and the rise of energy prices, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles rose to 11%.
China: the market is very resilient under the price rise, and the resumption of work and production has been carried out in an orderly manner under the coordination of policies. Impacted by the decline of policies and the rise of raw material prices, the prices of many auto enterprises increased, but the sales volume was not substantially affected. In 2022q1, the wholesale sales volume reached 1.19 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 145.4%, and the penetration rate reached a new high of 21.9%; The high rate of private car purchase and insurance coverage in unlicensed areas indicate that new energy vehicles are gradually driven by the market.
Byd Company Limited(002594) ranked first with its sales volume exceeding 100000 for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 422.6% in Q1 and a month on month increase of 146.4% in Q1 sales volume of new power auto enterprises. Affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jilin, the automobile supply chain was under pressure, and the sales volume of new power automobile enterprises shrank in April; Under the coordination of policies, the resumption of work and production has been carried out in an orderly manner. SAIC and Tesla have realized the offline of vehicle batches. Local governments have also successively issued consumption promotion policies. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic will gradually weaken.
Europe: the high growth momentum of new energy vehicle market remains. In 2022q1, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe reached 533000, a year-on-year increase of + 19.5%. From January to March 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe was 145000, 154000 and 234000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.3%, + 35.2% and + 5.9% respectively. The penetration rate in 2022q1 increased by 4.7pct to 15.2% year-on-year. The UK registered a record high of 55000 vehicles in March, up + 266.7% month on month. The registered volume of pure electricity in eight European countries reached 260000 + 52.7% year-on-year; The year-on-year registration of plug-in hybrid reached 178000, with pure electricity accounting for 59.4%. Tesla Europe has a total registered volume of 59000 vehicles, including 33000 model 3 and 25000 model y. In addition, Tesla’s registration volume in many European countries increased significantly month on month. The total registration volume of Tesla in the UK reached 13000, month on month + 10000; The total registered volume in Germany reached 8000, with a month on month increase of + 2000.
United States: the trend of electrification driven by policy is determined, and the increase of high-quality supply drives sales. The government has increased investment in new energy vehicles, and the tightening trend of the final version of carbon emission standards is obvious. The improvement rate of cafe standards has risen sharply to 8%. The pressure of enterprise emission reduction has increased, which is beneficial to the new energy market. In 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in Q1 America increased by 72.4% year-on-year, reaching 215000 vehicles, and the penetration rate reached 6.4% in March. The high growth momentum of the pure electric market remains, and the electric pickup truck is expected to become the next outlet. In 2022, Tesla Q1 increased by 88.8% year-on-year, with 83000 sales volume and 62.8% market share. GM gradually resumed the production of bolt EV / EUV, and the sales volume is expected to rise accordingly.
Investment suggestion: the new energy vehicle market continues to have a high outlook. It is estimated that the global sales of new energy vehicles will be nearly 9.8 million in 2022, including 5.5 million, 2.62 million and 1.22 million in China, Europe and the United States respectively. The demand for power batteries is expected to reach 533gwh Recommended core assets of industrial chain Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , and strong α Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) ; In terms of battery technology upgrading, it is recommended to pay attention to the leading segments with R & D advantages and technology preemptive layout. It is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , and Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , beiteri, Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (covered by the chemical group), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) .
Risk tips: the policy effect is less than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, the price of raw materials continues to rise, macroeconomic fluctuations and changes in industrial policies
