Core view
Thermal power got out of the low profit in the first quarter, and the certainty of profit repair expectation improved.
In the first quarter, the demand for electricity remained good, and the power generation of power enterprises increased steadily, driving the growth of revenue in the first quarter. Although the performance and net profit of thermal power enterprises in the first quarter decreased year-on-year, compared with the previous quarter, the performance improved significantly month on month, and thermal power got out of the low profit.
The policy of stabilizing prices and ensuring supply continues to work, and coal production capacity is expected to be released. On May 4, the people's Bank of China announced an increase of 100 billion yuan in the special refinancing line to support the clean and efficient utilization of coal, which is specially used to support the development and use of coal and enhance the capacity of coal reserves. So far, the total amount of special refinancing to support low-carbon, clean and efficient utilization of coal has reached 300 billion yuan. On May 6, the national development and Reform Commission held a special meeting on Chaokai, which strictly stipulated the medium and long-term transaction price and spot price of coal. If it exceeds the specified range, it will be recognized as bid up the price. Under the expectation of coal capacity release, coal prices are expected to stabilize, and the profit of thermal power in the second quarter is expected to continue to improve.
Diversified development of energy to ensure the safety of energy use
With the large-scale and high proportion access of new energy, the security and stability of power system has been paid more and more attention. Subject to the intermittence and instability of scenery resources, it is difficult for new energy to play the role of main power supply in the short term. With the needs of power development and the substantial growth of wind and solar installed capacity, the demand for supporting energy storage facilities to participate in power regulation is also increasing day by day. According to the medium and long term development plan of pumped storage (20212035), the total scale of pumped storage put into operation will be more than 62 million KW by 2025; By 2030, the total scale of production will be about 120 million KW. The development space of energy storage market is opened, and the construction of pumped storage power station may usher in rapid growth in the future.
On April 20, the executive meeting of the State Council approved three nuclear power projects in Zhejiang Sanmen, Shandong Haiyang and Guangdong Lufeng, which have been included in the national plan after years of preparation and comprehensive evaluation and review. Since this year, many places have incorporated the "active and orderly development of nuclear power" into energy planning, and the approval of nuclear power is expected to accelerate. As a clean and stable power supply, nuclear power is in line with the dual carbon development goal.
The accelerated approval of nuclear power is also expected to further improve the energy supply capacity, and the whole nuclear power industry chain is expected to usher in long-term and stable development in the future.
Market performance
Since the beginning of this year, the market volatility has intensified and the sector has made a sharp correction. As of May 12, the utility sector fell 13.7%.
In terms of molecular sectors, the callback range of photovoltaic power generation and thermal power generation was the largest, down 33.17% and 21.11% respectively; Thermal power generation fell 18.95%; Nuclear power fell by 12.83%; Hydropower had the smallest correction, down 1.61%.
Electricity market summary
At present, China's power supply and demand is still tight. From the perspective of power generation structure, China is still dominated by coal power in the short term, and coal power still plays a leading role in power generation in the short term. At present, the price of power coal is still relatively high, but under the regulation of a series of policies of the national development and Reform Commission, the coal price is expected to stabilize. With the rise of electricity price, the future performance of thermal power enterprises will usher in deterministic improvement and have certain allocation value.
With the deepening of the concept of green and low-carbon in recent years, the long-term situation of renewable energy development in the future will not change. The wind power photovoltaic new energy sector still has high development momentum, and the installed capacity of new energy is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Since this year, the power sector has experienced a significant correction. From the annual reports of listed companies, green power enterprises have stronger profitability and good fundamentals.
At the same time, all localities are also actively promoting the construction of power spot market and opening up the space for price rise. Promote new energy to participate in market transactions and discover the inherent value of green power. Bargain hunting layout of green power sector, its growth is expected to bring considerable return on investment.
With the participation of new energy in market transactions, its instability and intermittence make it difficult to ensure the stable supply of electricity. At the same time, the pressure of thermal power peak shaving and frequency regulation increases. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage.
Risk tip: the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the power investment and construction is less than expected.
