In April, house prices continued to decline as a whole.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in April, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, house prices decreased, the number of cities increased, new house prices fell year-on-year for the first time since December 2015, and the year-on-year decline of second-hand house prices expanded.
Industry insiders believe that the fundamental reason why the market repair was blocked in April is that the market expectation is weak. At present, reversing the market expectation is the key.
Recently, the central bank lowered the lower limit of the first mortgage interest rate, which is conducive to reducing the purchase cost of rigid demand and improved demand. It is expected to improve market transactions and speed up the bottom repair of house prices. As the epidemic situation in Shanghai is fully controlled, it is expected that the anti epidemic will enter the final stage in June, and the effect of the package of policies to rescue the epidemic situation and the property market in the early stage will be fully demonstrated in the second half of the yearP align = "center" new home prices fell year-on-year for the first time in 77 months
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in April, house prices fell and the number of cities increased in 70 large and medium-sized citiesP align = "center" among them, there are 47 cities with new house prices falling month on month, an increase of 9 over the previous month; Second hand house prices fell month on month in 50 cities, an increase of 5 over the previous month.
New house prices fell year-on-year in 39 cities, an increase of 10 over the previous month; Second hand housing fell year-on-year in 56 cities, an increase of 9 over the previous month.
According to the simple arithmetic average calculation, in April, the new house price index of 70 cities in China increased by - 0.3% month on month and - 0.1% year-on-year; The second-hand house price index increased by - 0.3% month on month and - 1.6% year-on-year.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that the new house price index fell year-on-year for the first time since December 2015 and for the first time in 77 months; The downward pressure on second-hand house prices has increased for eight consecutive months, indicating that the decline in second-hand house prices has also increased year-on-year.
In terms of cities, in April, the new house prices in the first, second and third tier cities increased by 0.2%, - 0.1% and - 0.6% month on month respectively; Year on year growth was 3.9%, 1.0% and - 1.5%. Second hand house prices in the first, second and third tier cities increased by 0.4%, - 0.3% and - 0.3% month on month respectively; Year on year growth was 2.4%, - 1.0% and - 2.5%.
Li Yujia, Chief Research Institute of the housing policy research center of Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, pointed out that the first, second and third tier cities have shown a cooling trend. Among them, the month on month increase in first tier cities has decreased significantly, mainly due to the obvious epidemic situation in April. In addition, the pressure of falling house prices in the third tier cities is the greatest. The price of second-hand houses is similar to that of new houses.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, also said that the downward pressure of house prices in second and third tier cities is higher than that in first tier cities, especially in third tier cities. The main reason is that the fundamentals of the third tier cities are weak, the population support is insufficient, and the expected weakening of the market in the downward period is more significant.
According to the reporter of the securities times, from the ranking of the month on month increase of house prices, in April, the price increase of new houses in Chengdu and Guiyang ranked first, and the price increase of new houses in Beijing ranked second; Chengdu's second-hand house prices rose the first in China, and Kunming and Beijing tied for the second.
From the ranking of year-on-year increase in house prices, in April, the price increase of new houses in Hangzhou ranked first in China, Yinchuan second and Chongqing third; The increase of second-hand house prices in Beijing ranks first in China, second in Haikou and third in Shanghai. Among them, the rise of second-hand house prices in Beijing has been the first in China for eight consecutive months.
In addition, the year-on-year decline in house prices in Dali, Nanchong, Harbin, Taiyuan and other cities is more obviousP align = "center" reversing market expectations is the key
"At present, house prices in more than half of the 70 cities have fallen, which means that house prices across the country are falling as a whole." Li Yujia said.
For the reasons for the overall decline in house prices, Li Yujia believes that despite the barrier of the epidemic, which makes it difficult to realize the demand for houses, the epidemic continues to cause a decline in confidence, weakening expectations, and the decline in the price of second-hand houses, which leads to a bearish outlook. The decline in housing demand also forced real estate enterprises to reduce prices and promote sales.
Xu Xiaole also believes that the market repair was blocked in April, the overall decline of house prices expanded, and the number of falling cities increased. The fundamental reason is that the market expectation is weak. Since this year, the real estate regulation policies in most cities have been relaxed, but the market feedback is weak. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, the number of second-hand housing transactions in 50 shell cities decreased by more than 20% month on month in April. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the sales area of new commercial housing in China decreased by more than 40% month on month in April. Falling market transactions will bring downward pressure on prices.
In order to further strengthen support for the real estate market, after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 and the 23 rescue measures of the central bank, on May 15, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced to reduce the lower limit of the first mortgage interest rate by 20 basis points.
"The adjustment of real estate policy has entered the second stage, from local focus to joint relief by local and regulatory authorities, that is, comprehensively reduce interest rates and reduce the proportion of down payment, boost market confidence, and shift from non hot cities to hot cities, from general small-scale fighting to comprehensive deregulation of the 'four restrictions'." Li Yujia said.
Looking forward to the future, Xu Xiaole believes that the central bank has recently lowered the lower limit of the first mortgage interest rate by 20 basis points. In combination with the cancellation of house recognition and loan recognition in some cities in the early stage, the demand for house replacement is implemented according to the first set of loans. The reduction of the lower limit of interest rate is conducive to reducing the purchase cost of rigid demand and improved demand, which is expected to improve market transactions and speed up the bottom repair of house prices.
Li Yujia believes that with the comprehensive control of the epidemic in Shanghai, the anti epidemic is expected to enter the final stage in June, and the effect of the package of policies to rescue the epidemic and the property market in the early stage will be fully apparent in the second half of the year.
However, in Xu Xiaole's view, reversing market expectations is the key to prevent demand contraction caused by the strengthening of price decline expectations. He believes that future policies include increasing residents' income through financial subsidies, tax cuts and other policies, reducing the debt repayment burden of those who have purchased houses, reducing the rent payment burden of rental groups, and maintaining normal consumption expenditure; In addition, the landing policies on the supply side are also urgent, such as actively supporting the refinancing of real estate enterprises, especially liberalizing the M & A financing of high-quality listed real estate enterprises, and accelerating the risk disposal of key real estate enterprises.
