In April, the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the stock price of corresponding sectors were not optimistic.
Affected by the epidemic, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid April was about 299000, a month on month decrease of 38.3% and a year-on-year increase of 44.6%. Affected by factors such as blocked logistics and transportation, the export of new energy vehicles in April was about 11000, accounting for 7.8% of the total export, with a year-on-year decrease of 53.7%. Also showing a downward trend is the power battery industry. According to the data, in April, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity totaled 13.3gwh, with a month on month decrease of 38% and a year-on-year increase of 58.1%.
In the European market, in April, the sales of pure electric vehicles in 8 countries including Germany, France, Norway, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands totaled about 128200, down 35.9% month on month.
In the capital market, the performance of new energy vehicles in April was the same as that in the terminal sales market. In April, Tesla‘s market value decreased by $211.59 billion Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) market value decreased by more than 20% month on month. However, it is worth noting that since May, the new energy sector is gradually “warming up” in the capital market.
The industry expects that, on the one hand, the epidemic affecting production and terminal sales has been gradually controlled. Shanghai automobile industry chain and vehicle factory are gradually starting to resume work and production, which is expected to return to the previous level in May. On the other hand, the prices of power battery raw materials affecting power battery enterprises and main engine manufacturers have begun to fall, and it is expected that the relationship between supply and demand will be better reversed in the second half of the year. The new energy vehicle industry has ushered in a turning point.
Byd Company Limited(002594) monthly sales exceeded 100000 Tesla, and the output fell by 80%
Affected by the current epidemic, although the new energy vehicle market segment achieved a year-on-year increase in April, it still showed a significant decline compared with March.
According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in April was 282000, with a year-on-year increase of 78.4% and a month on month decrease of 36.5%, which is different from the trend in April over the years. From January to April, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China totaled 1.352 million, a year-on-year increase of 128.4%.
“The month on month trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in April has been affected by production. The shortage of new energy vehicles has intensified, resulting in serious delays in the delivery of orders. Under the epidemic, private car travel has driven the strong growth of new energy vehicles, and the safe travel of the second car of the family is of great significance, echoing the further recognition and adaptation of urban residents to new energy vehicles during short-distance travel.” Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, said.
It is worth mentioning that the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 27.1% in April, an increase of 17.3 percentage points over the penetration rate of 9.8% in the same period last year. Among them, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 54.4%, that of luxury brand new energy vehicles is 5.5%, while that of mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles is only 3.7%.
In terms of brands, in mid April, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger car market was only Byd Company Limited(002594) “outstanding”, maintained rapid growth against the trend, and firmly ranked first with 105500 vehicles. Other enterprises with sales exceeding 10000 include SAIC GM Wuling, Chery Automobile and GAC ea’an, with sales of about 30000, 15600 and 10200 respectively.
The sales volume of the new forces of car making in April was as difficult year-on-year as month on month. Only Zero run, Xiaopeng and Nezha delivered more than 8500 new cars, while ideal and Weilai decreased significantly month on month. Among the joint venture brands, “North South Volkswagen” was affected by the epidemic, and the wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 50% month on month to 6307, but it still accounts for 47% of the total sales volume of new energy vehicles of mainstream joint venture brands, while other joint venture and luxury brands still need to make efforts in the field of new energy vehicles.
It is worth noting that the sales volume of plug-in hybrid models increased by 148.1% year-on-year in April, becoming the market segment least affected by the epidemic. Although its monthly retail volume was only 70000, it effectively slowed down the narrowing of the overall growth rate of new energy vehicles when the growth rate of pure electric vehicles decreased to 63.3%. Meanwhile, the sales proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the new energy vehicle market also exceeded 20% for the first time, reaching 24.8%.
Cui Dongshu believes that “plug-in hybrid models have the characteristics of alternative fuel vehicles because of their convenience advantages, so they have performed better in the near future. The sales of pure electric vehicles are lower than expected, which is largely due to Tesla.” Data show that Tesla produced only 10800 new cars in China in April, down 80.6% from 55500 in March.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) analysis shows that the epidemic affected the production and sales of the automobile industry in April, with a large decline, but basically in line with expectations. The automobile and parts industry passively destocked. At present, the resumption of work and production is promoted as scheduled, and the wholesale sales volume is expected to increase month on month in May. At present, SAIC has gradually resumed single shift production, and is expected to gradually increase to double shifts by the end of the month. The production capacity of other auto enterprises with large production reduction has been restored to 60% ~ 70%, which is expected to be fully restored in mid and late May.
battery installed capacity decreased by 38% month on month Byd Company Limited(002594) market share increased
In April, the export of Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was also impacted by the epidemic. According to the data of China Automobile Association, automobile enterprises exported 141000 vehicles in April, down 6.6% year-on-year and 17.2% month on month. Among them, 11000 new energy vehicles were exported, accounting for 7.8% of the total export, with a year-on-year decrease of 53.7%.
At the level of automobile enterprises, no enterprise exported more than 10000 new energy passenger vehicles in April. The top automobile enterprises are Dongfeng yijiete (3433 vehicles), Shenlong Automobile (805 vehicles), Byd Company Limited(002594) (705 vehicles) and Aichi automobile (168 vehicles).
It is worth noting that, affected by the epidemic, Tesla’s export volume this month was 0.5% For the export situation, Tesla said that at present, the enterprise has produced some export vehicles, some of which are being transported to the Asia Pacific region, and a large number of products are also loaded in the near future and will be exported to Europe and other places. After the resumption of work and production, especially when the cross-border logistics efficiency is greatly reduced and the transportation is blocked, this part of the vehicles have not been recorded as exported.
China Automobile Association said that from the current situation, the development situation of the automobile industry is gradually improving, and enterprises strive to catch the key window period in May and June to make up for the lost production and sales.
Affected by the weakening downstream demand and the obstruction of upstream raw material logistics and transportation, the installed capacity of power battery also decreased significantly in April. According to the data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in April, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity totaled 13.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 58.1% and a month on month decrease of 38%.
Among them, the loading volume of ternary lithium battery was 4.4gwh, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.6% and a month on month decrease of 46.9%, accounting for 32.9% of the total loading volume; The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 8.9gwh, which continued to expand the dominant position of ternary lithium battery, with a year-on-year increase of 177.2% and a month on month decrease of 32.6%, accounting for 67% of the total loading capacity.
In terms of power battery suppliers, in April, the top three enterprises in the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ), Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) . SZ) and China Innovation airlines. However, it is worth noting that the market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power battery installed capacity decreased by about 12 percentage points compared with the previous month. In comparison, Byd Company Limited(002594) is a “sudden rise”, and the market share is about 13 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.
Some analysts believe that the main reason for the opposite trend of installed capacity of the two enterprises is that when the sales volume of major new energy vehicle enterprises fell to varying degrees in April, only Byd Company Limited(002594) still maintained the sales volume of more than 100000 vehicles, driving the high increase of installed capacity of their own power batteries. In comparison, as the largest customer of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Tesla delivered only 1512 vehicles in China in April, a record low since it was made in China, which directly led to a significant decline in the installed capacity of battery supplier Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) .
In view of the impact of the April epidemic on the annual business performance, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Board Secretary Jiang Li responded: “The impact of the epidemic is divided into two parts. One part is the recent epidemic in Ningde, where the company’s headquarters and main production base are located, which has been basically unsealed before May day under the rapid response and action of the government, which has a small impact on the company’s operation; the second is that the epidemic in Shanghai and other places has reduced the production of vehicle factories, which may have some impact on terminal consumption. With the gradual resumption of work and production, the overall impact is also small. The company’s production capacity is expected to meet customers within the year Demand. “
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) analysis shows that the price of lithium increased sharply in the first quarter of this year, and the upstream profit increased, but the profits in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain were compressed. Superimposed on the repeated impact of the epidemic, the profit growth rate of battery enterprises in the first quarter decreased compared with last year. However, at present, new energy vehicles on the demand side continue to sell well, the growth of energy storage demand accelerates, and the supply side gradually returns to work and production. At the end of the second quarter, it may begin to pick up, and the backlog of electric vehicle consumption demand will be released. At present, according to the calculation of the price rise of new energy, the cost of raw materials has basically been transferred level by level. It is expected that the profit will recover in the second half of the year and the scale of revenue will increase significantly.
new energy stocks were weak, and the price of battery raw materials fell
In April, new energy vehicle concept stocks continued the weak trend in March.
In the A-share market, only the stock prices of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and other individual stocks increased month on month in April, but the increase was also within 9% Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) share prices fell by 9.42%, 26.41% and 15.24% respectively.
In the Hong Kong stock market, the market value of Geely Automobile, a traditional automobile enterprise, increased by 4.685 billion yuan. The market value of ideal cars of the new forces of car making decreased by 4.45%, and the market value of Xiaopeng cars decreased by 4.7%.
In overseas markets, Tesla’s market value evaporated the most, and its market value decreased by $211.59 billion in April. The market value of rivian, a new force in car making, fell the most, at 39.82%. Rivian said that the production in the first quarter of this year was 2553 vehicles, but the delivery was far behind its production. Considering that the delivery volume is sluggish and less than expected, Brian Johnson, an analyst at Barclays Bank, believes that whether in the short term or in the long term, rivian’s capacity ramp up “has little valuation support” and there is a continuous risk of capacity ramp up.
The trend of OEMs in the capital market has also affected the new energy vehicle industry chain. According to incomplete statistics by the reporter of the daily economic news, the market value of Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) alone has increased slightly, while the market value of other supply chain enterprises has declined to varying degrees. Especially in the power battery industry, the market value of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and other enterprises decreased by more than 20% month on month.
Since this year, the rise in the price of upstream materials of power batteries has doubled the pressure on the power battery industry, and there has also been a phenomenon of “increasing income without increasing profit” in the financial report. According to the first quarter report released by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 430, the company’s revenue was about 48.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62% and a month on month decrease of 81.75%. Jiang Li said at the performance explanation meeting that due to the large rise in the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, the client price transmission is relatively cautious, and the sales volume in the first quarter decreased month on month due to seasonal factors, resulting in a certain impact on the performance in the first quarter.
However, it is worth noting that the price of raw materials for power batteries has stopped rising, and the high-cost procurement pressure of power battery enterprises may be relieved. Jiang Li said that at present, the increase of raw material prices has slowed down, and the decline of upstream prices in the supply chain is a trend. It is expected that the relationship between supply and demand will be better reversed in the second half of the year.
industrial chain starts to extricate itself from difficulties and is expected to return to normal in late may
At present, the automobile industry chain affected by the epidemic has sounded the “assembly number” of returning to work and production.
In mid and late April, Shanghai announced the “white list” of the first batch of key enterprises, and 666 enterprises on the “white list” took the lead in returning to work. At the end of April, another 1188 enterprises in Shanghai were included in the “white list” of the second batch of key enterprises, and the resumption of work and production was gradually started. In particular, in Jiading District of Shanghai, known as the “Auto City”, 126 enterprises have officially resumed work and production, including complete vehicle enterprises such as SAIC Volkswagen, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Weilai automobile, and various accessories and supporting equipment enterprises in the auto industry chain such as ZF and KeSiDa.
In terms of the rhythm of the resumption of the main engine plant, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) is expected to gradually resume normal production in the middle of May, and the production and sales of finished vehicles in that month may reach the level of the same period last year. In terms of automobile industry chain, Bosch’s output capacity after resumption of work is currently about 30% to 75%.
“With the resumption of work in Shanghai, the relevant automobile industry chain is gradually recovering. At the same time, the implementation of support policies is accelerating. In May, the supply will show a gradual improvement, and relevant enterprises will meet the normal supply demand of the industry chain as soon as possible.” Cui Dongshu said.
At the same time, the logistics pressure in the Yangtze River Delta will be further relieved. “In terms of the automobile logistics industry, the epidemic containment areas such as Shanghai and Changchun are the gathering places of main engine plants and automobile front-end supply chains. Previously, due to the epidemic, the production was stopped, the overall production capacity of the automobile industry decreased, and the demand for new vehicle logistics decreased; while the automobile industry is a labor-intensive industry, it is difficult to resume work as a whole; the control policies in different regions are different, and the long-distance transportation between provinces and regions has been affected to a certain extent.” “As of May 7, the automobile logistics industry has recovered to more than 50%. Except for some epidemic sealed areas, the automobile logistics in other areas has basically recovered,” the staff of the vehicle transportation steward of the automobile logistics company of dassou group told reporters
Dongguan securities also said in the research report released on May 15 that with the gradual easing of the epidemic, Shanghai’s automobile industry has fully resumed work, driving the automobile industry chain to accelerate the resumption of work and production. It is expected to resume normal production in late May.
