Baijiu: the high base number dropped compared with the same period last year, and the state Tai Fen Liquor was steady.
According to Ali channel data, Baijiu online sales, sales volume and average price in December were up -49.08%/-44.62% / -33.39%/-18.60% / -23.56%/-31.97% respectively. Affected by the repeated epidemic situation and high base, the sales volume and sales volume decreased year-on-year and month on month in December. The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) performance of high-end wine is relatively stable; The sales volume of secondary high-end Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and National Taiwan increased by 19.3% and 15.2%, and the average price of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) increased positively; The Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) sales volume of third and fourth tier liquor increased by 187.9% year-on-year, mainly due to the outstanding performance of 100ml small Golden Emblem products + participation in online live broadcasting activities. Cr19 decreased by 5.85pct to 48.28% year-on-year, mainly due to the year-on-year decrease of 13.78pct in Maotai, but the share of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Fenjiu and Yanghe increased by 3.76, 2.33 and 1.67pct.
Beer: Heineken led the year-on-year growth in sales, and the long-term structural upgrading trend remained unchanged. According to Alibaba channel data, the sales, sales and average price of the beer industry in December changed by – 12.68%, + 4.30% and – 16.28% respectively year-on-year. Under the influence of the double 11 high base, the sales volume, sales volume and average price decreased significantly month on month, but the sales volume increased year-on-year. In terms of sales, Harbin beer, Heineken beer and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) performed well, with sales up 39.7%, 28.9% and 17.2% year-on-year; In terms of sales volume, Heineken beer, Harbin beer and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) performed well, with year-on-year growth of 101.3%, 49.9% and 28.8% respectively; In terms of price, China Resources snowflake performed prominently, with a year-on-year increase of 70.7%. The average price of beer fluctuates slightly in the short term, but the general trend of high-end and industrial structure upgrading has not changed. In terms of market share, the concentration of beer industry fell this month, and CR9 decreased by 3.3pct year-on-year.
Wine: under the high base, the sales volume increased month on month, and the average sales price of Kuxi performed brilliantly. According to Alibaba channel data, the sales volume, sales volume and average price of wine in December changed by – 38.44%, – 26.70% and – 16.02% respectively year on year, and the sales volume increased month on month. Under the background of last year’s high base and double 11, Kuxi achieved significant growth year-on-year and month on month, mainly due to the sales volume of large single product “full box 14 degree double Cabernet Sauvignon genuine red wine” reached 29895 in December, with a month on month increase of 117%. Kuxi’s sales and sales performance was brilliant, with a year-on-year increase of 111.3% and 75.8%; In terms of price, mula, Kuxi and Lafite performed well, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.9%, 20.2% and 3.6% respectively. In terms of market share, the concentration of wine industry decreased this month, CR7 decreased by 4.7pct to 23.6% year-on-year, and the share of Changyu and Kuxi increased by 1.4 and 1.3pct.
Yellow rice wine: under the high base, the sales volume decreased year-on-year, and the high concentration decreased slightly. According to Alibaba channel data, the sales volume, average price of yellow rice wine in December changed by – 28.71%, – 12.89%, – 18.16% year-on-year respectively. Under the background of high base last year, only the sales volume of Shikumen increased year-on-year, and only the average price of Anchang Taihe increased year-on-year. In terms of sales, Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) and Shikumen performed relatively steadily, with growth rates of – 18.4% and – 20.7% respectively; In terms of sales volume, only Shikumen increased by 2.1% year-on-year; In terms of price, only Anchang Taihe increased by 3.2% year-on-year. The market share of rice wine CR7 decreased by 6.2pct to 61.6% year-on-year, of which the market share of Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) increased by 3.1pct year-on-year, and the market share of Shazhou youhuang and tapai decreased by 5.9 and 2.3pct year-on-year.
Investment advice
Investment recommendations: Fearless short-term fluctuations, firmly optimistic about the 22Q1 start market Baijiu, basically for good certainty: wineries opened earlier to fight + part of the liquor business start a good goal higher than previous years + dealer inventory is generally low + price increases under the tide of stable prices to better + channel confidence, laid the foundation for a good start in 2022, suggested that the bargain plus. The current position is Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) . Pay attention to the possibility that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) has a good start and its performance may exceed expectations; In terms of beer, the trend of high-end upgrading continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading enterprises with high-end industry and strong price increase ability and cost control ability, such as Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, etc.
Risk warning: the impact of epidemic situation exceeds expectations; The recovery of movable pin is less than expected; Food safety risks.
