Data show that since April this year, 17 listed banks have welcomed institutional research, which has been investigated nearly 100 times, and more than 1000 institutions have participated in the research (Times), significantly higher than that in the same period last year.
At the same time, there are obvious signs that funds continue to flow into ETFs of relevant banks. Institutional sources said that at present, the market risk appetite has decreased, the expectation of steady growth is strong, and the valuation level of the banking sector is expected to rise further.
“net interest margin” is concerned
The data shows that most of the listed banks surveyed are urban rural commercial banks, mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, including Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , etc.
The survey summary shows that “net interest margin” is a key topic of concern to institutions. In this regard, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) said that it plans to improve the net interest margin from the asset side and liability side in the future. On the asset side, we will increase the proportion of physical loans and retail loans, reduce the scale of income assets, and maintain the stability of loan yield. On the liability side, we will increase the proportion of demand deposits, control the scale of structural deposits and large certificates of deposit, guide customers to jointly configure long-term and short-term products, and undertake high interest deposits through financial management, funds and other products.
Recently, the credit extension of banks has also been concerned by institutions Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) said that on the whole, the overall impact was relatively limited due to the overlap between the epidemic in Suzhou in February and the Spring Festival holiday, and the progress of the bank’s credit extension in the first quarter was basically in line with expectations. Up to now, most enterprises in Suzhou have started normal production and operation, and their demand for funds is gradually recovering. The credit supply in the second quarter will be promoted as planned.
In addition, the performance of real estate related business was also asked by many institutions. In this regard, Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) said that the mortgage demand in the first quarter of this year decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, but was on the track of gradual recovery. Generally speaking, with the strengthening of the bank’s business area and marketing channel construction, there is still a certain guarantee for the release of mortgage loans.
optimistic about the allocation value of small and medium-sized banks
Recently, the steady growth policy continues to increase, which has a positive impact on the overall operation of commercial banks, which has become the consensus of institutions. In terms of investment, the allocation value of some listed urban and rural commercial banks is widely optimistic.
According to Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) calculation, under the combined influence of the lower limit of commercial individual housing loan interest rate for the first set of housing is reduced by 20 basis points and the floating upper limit of benchmark interest rate of small and medium-sized banks is reduced by 10 basis points, the overall interest margin level of Listed Banks is expected to increase by 0.82 to 1.04 basis points this year, and the pre tax profit level of listed banks is expected to increase by 0.8% to 1.0%. As the proportion of deposits and time deposits of listed rural commercial banks is relatively high, and the scale and proportion of mortgage loans are relatively low, the improvement of interest margin and profit level will be very obvious.
The increasing prosperity of bank wealth management business is also an important reason why institutions are optimistic about bank stocks. Galaxy Securities said that the recent capital market shock adjustment has caused short-term pressure on the bank’s consignment business, but the medium and long-term track value remains unchanged, and the transformation of listed banks remains unchanged China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that while focusing on comprehensive financial services, some banks are expected to combine multiple advantages such as pension asset investment management, product design and channel marketing, and will benefit more from many opportunities brought by the pension industry in the future.
According to the data, as of May 16, in the past 20 trading days, the net inflow of ETF of Huabao CSI bank, the largest bank in the market, reached 775 million yuan, and the ETF of Wells Fargo CSI 800 bank was also favored by some funds. Hu Jie, general manager of R & D and Investment Department of Huabao fund index, recently pointed out that considering the steady growth policy introduced this year, the steady growth sector has a more prominent performance in this environment, and banks, as an important part of the steady growth sector, have achieved more obvious excess returns this year. In the future, bank stocks are still expected to outperform the market.
