Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : profitability has been significantly strengthened! Supermarket leader or double click logic
For the supermarket industry: from 2021q4 to 2022q1, supermarkets have come out of the bottom of the boom, their profitability has been significantly strengthened, and the growth rate is expected to accelerate; At the company level, the short-term business fluctuations are basically synchronized, and the leaders with the advantages of supply chain and the ability of continuous management reform further expand their advantages in ① cost control trend and profitability; ② It has a significant advantage in potential expansion. At present, it is gaining momentum and is expected to accelerate in the future.
For the Department Store Industry: from 2021q4 to 2022q1, the Department Store sector recorded industrial losses and the expansion of new stores gradually slowed down due to the repeated epidemic, weak demand and the multiple effects of the new leasing standards; At the company level, short-term fluctuations resonate with regional development. The leaders with location advantages, continuous digital transformation and transformation ability and internal adjustment and optimization are: ① the ability to connect with the upstream supply chain and the development and application of digital technology are gradually strengthened; ② Targeted cost investment ideas become clearer; ③ In the direction of strengthening the sense of experience, the strategy of improving the operation quality of single stores and actively closing ineffective stores is gradually being implemented.
In terms of investment suggestions, the supermarket leader may have double click logic, focusing on Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) ; Department stores continue to recommend Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) ; E-commerce is optimistic about the structural opportunities brought by policy easing, post epidemic recovery, e-commerce strategy adjustment and industry pattern change. Be optimistic about the global e-commerce service provider Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) (joint coverage of business and media); Be optimistic about the new economic leader Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) ; The platform continues to pay attention to meituan (joint coverage of business and media).
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : continuous implementation of consumption promotion policies and waiting for post epidemic repair
With the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, the resumption of business and market in Shanghai and the continuous implementation of consumption promotion policies, consumer demand (especially catering and other consumer demand that has been suppressed by the epidemic for a long time) is expected to recover gradually; The recommendations focus on the Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Huazhu group-s, Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , and China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : focus on “6.18” to promote catalysis! Consumers may increase their hoarding of commodities in basic consumption
On May 8, Shanghai Postal Administration released the first batch of “white list” enterprises to resume work and production, including 20 express logistics enterprises such as Shunfeng express, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, Yunda, Jitu, rookie and Jingdong, which have begun to resume work. In May, with the recovery of rapid logistics, online logistics is expected to achieve rapid recovery. However, due to the need to shop offline for consumption, the recovery under the epidemic prevention and control will be slower than online.
In addition, on June 18 this year, Taobao tmall provided businesses with 100 billion yuan of advance collection service free of charge, and increased measures to help businesses. We believe that retail products in optional consumption are expected to be replenished in the promotion of June 18, such as cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry. In addition, consumers may increase their hoarding of commodities in basic consumption.
In terms of investment suggestions, (1) medical beauty cosmetics industry: ① with the resumption of work and production in Shanghai in stages, the impact of logistics on online sales will gradually recover. It is expected that the preparation of 618 head cosmetics brand will make normal progress, and tmall will increase its subsidies to businesses. It is optimistic that 618 sales will be replenished this year. Attention: Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) , Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) , etc. ② With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the flow of people in Yimei offline stores is expected to gradually recover. Attention: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Sihuan medicine, Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) , Ruili Yimei, etc.
(2) commercial retail industry: under the influence of consumption upgrading and the epidemic, commercial retail enterprises seek transformation mainly in three ways: ① traditional department store enterprises meet the needs of consumers, transform to shopping centers, and build a diversified experiential consumption platform integrating shopping, catering, leisure and entertainment; ② Layout online channels, launch app, applet and other platforms, create private domain traffic, develop member economy, improve consumers’ sense of experience and enhance consumers’ stickiness; ③ Create differentiated products to meet the diversified needs of consumers. We are optimistic about the short-term repair of retail enterprises and the medium and long-term development after the transformation after the improvement of the epidemic situation.
open source Securities: focus on high-quality companies in supermarkets, gold jewelry, cosmetics and medical beauty
Focus on high-quality companies in supermarkets, gold jewelry, cosmetics and medical beauty. (1) Supermarkets: focus on the continuous improvement of the fundamentals of leading supermarkets, and focus on Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) ; (2) Gold jewelry: pay attention to the channel expansion and market share increase of head brands, and focus on recommending Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , DEA shares with differentiated competitive advantages; (3) Cosmetics: under the background of the new regulations, the industry will be “strong and strong”, focusing on recommending Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , the leading domestic cosmetics brands with outstanding advantages of “large single product + multi-channel”; (4) Medical beauty: strict supervision and short-term epidemic situation will not hinder the long-term growth of the industry. It is recommended to focus on the leading compliant medical beauty products Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) .
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : consumption during the epidemic has a certain delay, and it is expected to recover elastically after the epidemic is relieved
In terms of the number of people diagnosed with the epidemic, residents tend to reduce consumption and postpone consumption in April or the time point most seriously affected by the epidemic.
For optional consumer goods such as cosmetics, clothing and household appliances, the consumption during the epidemic has a certain delay, which is expected to recover after the epidemic is alleviated. Recommended optional targets for consumption recovery income: Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , DEA shares, etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the supply of rigid demand products with strong toughness: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) etc.
Shanghai Securities: Shanghai steadily promotes the resumption of work and production, and pays attention to the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai
For the e-commerce industry: the epidemic rebounded in many places in China, and the online consumer demand of residents may continue to increase; With the concerted efforts of major e-commerce platforms to fight the epidemic, materials and transportation capacity have been marginally improved.
For traditional retail: retailers have super accelerated the resumption of work and production, and 11 Carrefour stores in Shanghai have resumed offline business; Wal Mart, RT mart, Yonghui and other hypermarkets are accelerating their business recovery. With the recent rebound of the epidemic in China and increasingly strict control in various regions, the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control may be at an inflection point. Shanghai has steadily promoted the resumption of work and production, and paid attention to the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai.
For gold jewelry: in the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve.
In terms of investment suggestions, maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry. Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages. Investment main line 3: the recent rebound of China’s epidemic situation, increasingly strict local control, and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control may be at an inflection point. Shanghai has steadily promoted the resumption of work and production, and paid attention to the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) Shanghai Join Buy Co.Ltd(600838) 。
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : brands with rigid consumption, strong product power and deep user mind are expected to pass through the epidemic
Although the epidemic situation is still uncertain, we believe that brands with rigid consumption, strong product power and deep user mind are expected to pass through the epidemic and have stronger anti risk ability; The recovery speed of offline retail formats is slower than that of e-commerce, so we still need to explore a new format model to adapt to e-commerce competition. The proposed concern for the ‘ Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) \ and Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: platform economy is expected to usher in a new stage of development! Leaders pay attention to incremental changes, tap new trends and new enterprises
The recent policy is blowing warm wind frequently, and the platform economy is expected to usher in a new stage of development. It is more important to grasp the law of the industrial life cycle than the bottom of the game. The leaders pay attention to incremental changes and new industrial trends at the same time.
Leaders pay attention to incremental changes and tap new trends and new enterprises. ① The market previously discussed the possibility of “utilities” of platform Internet under the guidance of pessimism. We believe that there is an essential difference between the two. The infrastructure attribute of platform Internet means high-frequency rigid demand and large space, but it is still the business logic of market-oriented pricing; ② Paying attention to the new trends and incremental changes of the Internet platform industry is a more definite and long-term investment idea than the bottom and inflection point of the game: new markets (Southeast Asia / Africa), new needs (new population / class / scene) and new technologies will breed new trends and new enterprises; ③ For the leading Internet platforms, they are far from mature. In particular, we should fully understand the impact of technological change on business model and enterprise development, as well as the nonlinearity of growth; ④ Recommended by jd-w group:.
