Today (May 18), after the three major stock indexes of A-Shares opened slightly higher, the stock indexes fluctuated repeatedly in the morning and dived and rose again, accompanied by the relay rise of small cap stocks; Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded in the afternoon, and the three major indexes collectively turned red, but the persistence was not strong enough. They fell again near the end of the day, and the three major indexes closed green slightly.
In this regard, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that at present, the market has once again come near the integer mark of 3100. Since there are still many uncertain factors outside China in the recent stage, and there is no obvious inflection point event for the time being, a certain long and short tug of war may be carried out around 3100 in the near future.
At the same time, Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the recovery of economic expectations, market risk appetite will gradually pick up. The worst stage of the short-term market has passed, so we should actively grasp the current round of index repair market. In terms of operation, we will continue to focus on track stocks with oversold rebound demand in the short term, such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, military industry and other related sectors, but it will take time for the sector to reverse, and pay attention to the rhythm.
sector:
I. photovoltaic equipment
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) mentioned that at least 70% of the demand for components in Europe is still dependent on imports, and the high demand is expected to significantly benefit Chinese enterprises such as relevant components, inverters, energy storage and supports. It is expected that the installed capacity of new photovoltaic in Europe is expected to exceed 40gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 54%. The world's newly added photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 230gw, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and the demand rhythm is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) said that at the current time point, we continue to be firmly optimistic about the upward repair market of the 5-volt sector, and reiterated our view on the upward prosperity of the industry: 1) the demand at home and abroad is still strong, and the operating rate has not decreased. 2) The first quarter report is excellent, and the second quarter will continue. 3) Near the "630" grid connection time node, the ground power station needs to be started gradually; The construction of distributed projects has also resumed with the promotion of China's resumption of work and the gradual easing of logistics.
The agency believes that in the short term, the data of photovoltaic in the first quarter is strong. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the photovoltaic industry may continue to recommend at the bottom. The order of subdivision is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
In addition, Dongguan Securities pointed out that under the background of the continuous price rise of the photovoltaic industry chain, the increase of silicon material supply in May, the gradual improvement of the production and transportation status of Chinese enterprises and the safe supply of energy and power in China, the upstream raw material end is more benefited at present. It is suggested to pay attention to Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) ( Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) ) benefiting from the simultaneous rise of silicon material price and volume; China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ) benefiting from the rise of market-oriented transaction electricity price and the rapid growth of Fengguang new energy power generation; Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) ( Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) ) benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure and the acceleration of UHV construction.
II. General merchandise
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that in terms of the number of people diagnosed with the epidemic, residents tended to reduce consumption and postpone consumption in April or the time point most seriously affected by the epidemic. For optional consumer goods such as cosmetics, clothing and household appliances, the consumption during the epidemic has a certain delay, which is expected to recover after the epidemic is alleviated. Recommended optional targets for consumption recovery income: Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , DEA shares, etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the supply of rigid demand products with strong toughness: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) etc.
In addition, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that under the influence of consumption upgrading and the epidemic, there are three main ways for commercial retail enterprises to seek Transformation: ① traditional department store enterprises meet the needs of consumers, transform to shopping centers, and build a diversified experiential consumption platform integrating shopping, catering, leisure and entertainment; ② Layout online channels, launch app, applet and other platforms, create private domain traffic, develop member economy, improve consumers' sense of experience and enhance consumers' stickiness; ③ Create differentiated products to meet the diversified needs of consumers. We are optimistic about the short-term repair of retail enterprises and the medium and long-term development after the transformation after the improvement of the epidemic situation.
Shanghai Securities believes that it will maintain the "overweight" rating of the commercial retail industry. Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages. Investment main line 3: the recent rebound of China's epidemic situation, increasingly strict local control, and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control may be at an inflection point. Shanghai has steadily promoted the resumption of work and production, and paid attention to the post epidemic recovery opportunities of local commercial stocks in Shanghai. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) Shanghai Join Buy Co.Ltd(600838) 。
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