In 2022, the performance of global stock markets and futures markets is divided. A number of interviewed Taurus quantitative private placement have some differences on the research and judgment of the operation trend of the commodity market, but they are generally optimistic about the investment opportunities of quantitative trading in the commodity market and composite strategy funds.
differences in commodity market research and judgment
Looking forward to the overall operation trend of the commodity market in 2022, the research and judgment of Jinniu private equity institutions are very different. Among the three Taurus private placements interviewed on the 13th, one is optimistic about the performance of the systemic bull market in commodities in 2022.
Hu Peng, deputy general manager of Luoshu investment, said that looking forward to 2022, he is still optimistic that commodities will continue to get out of the bull market. First, although the United States will enter the cycle of raising interest rates, the process of economic recovery in Europe and the United States will accelerate. Credit and monetary easing have become the main tone of China's macro-economy in 2022, and the macro environment is relatively friendly to bulk commodities; Second, from the supply side, under the global carbon emission reduction pattern, the capital expenditure of bulk commodities is low. Under the background of the epidemic, the metal mine side still faces large supply constraints, and the supply side of bulk commodities will be tight for a long time; Third, as economic activities gradually return to normal, the elasticity of commodity consumption is likely to exceed that of supply, and the relevant supply and demand gap may gradually appear with the further economic recovery.
Yang Shaofen, investment director of Siye investment, said that in the past two years, there has been a phased bull market in bulk commodities due to factors such as supply and demand mismatch, export growth, transportation bottleneck, global currency release and carbon emission reduction policies. With the repair of supply chains outside China and the tightening of overseas fiscal and monetary policy space, the supply and demand shortage will gradually narrow in 2022, and the focus of the whole market may gradually decline, making it difficult to have a systematic bull market. The overall global commodity inventory is still at a low level, and the demand for Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and industrial metals is expected to remain strong in the future.
The head of black wing asset research said that it is unlikely that the global and Chinese commodity markets will continue the systematic bull market of the past two years in 2022. Due to the current high commodity prices, the Federal Reserve continues to release monetary tightening signals, and China has repeatedly stressed the need to correctly understand and grasp the "double carbon" policy, which may put pressure on commodities at different stages.
it is recommended to focus on composite strategy products
In terms of specific investment, the interviewed Jinniu private placement believes that the abundant trading liquidity of China's commodity futures market and the continuous enrichment of futures varieties will continue to provide a large strategy operation space and income source for the exertion of quantitative CTA strategy this year. Considering the increasing uncertainty in the global financial market this year and other factors, it is suggested that investors can focus on composite strategy (Multi Strategy) fund products in 2022.
Yang Shaofen said that based on the analysis of relevant long and short factors and the expectation of relaxing the regulatory policies on the commodity market this year, it is expected that the commodity price fluctuation in 2022 will be more obvious than that in 2021. Siye investment is cautiously optimistic about the performance of the quantitative CTA strategy for the whole year.
Hu Peng said that three factors will have a positive impact on commodity market investment in 2022: first, the pace of continuous expansion of commodity market continues, and more new trading varieties are expected to be listed this year, bringing more trading opportunities; Second, with the improvement of the maturity of commodity futures market, it is conducive to all kinds of investment institutions to better serve the real economy in hedging and value discovery; Third, affected by macro, supply, demand and other factors, the annual market volatility is expected to be at a "medium high" level, and many varieties may go out of the phased trend market.
It is particularly noteworthy that in the context of the poor overall performance of stock strategy fund products in 2022, the interviewed Jinniu private placement suggests that investors can consider paying appropriate attention to composite strategy fund products that can cover stocks, commodities, fixed income and other assets at the same time.
Yang Shaofen said that from the perspective of the macro environment in 2022, the global economy is expected to face greater challenges. In the environment of strong uncertainty, the risk of a single asset increases. It is recommended to choose products with multiple asset portfolios and decentralized allocation, especially investment products with stable long-term performance and long-term test.
Black Wing assets believes that the low correlation multi strategy combination can hedge the fluctuations from different sources, so as to effectively improve the sharp ratio of products and improve the holding experience of investors. From the perspective of investment choice of fund products, investors are advised to choose Mixed Multi Strategy products including CTA strategy.
Hu Peng also pointed out that it is difficult to accurately predict the market style in the next period of time. The advantage of compound strategy is not to game a single style, but to strive to obtain positive benefits in most market environments. CTA products with composite strategy are easier to obtain better return risk ratio than single strategy. In the macro context of 2022, investors can focus on managers with investment ability in multiple asset classes to obtain better asset allocation results.
