After new year’s day, international crude oil entered a new round of rise. On January 12, the light crude oil futures delivered in February on the New York Stock Exchange stood at $82 / barrel; Brent crude oil futures for March delivery once rose to $85 / barrel, both of which reached a new high in nearly two months.
slow supply growth
caused the rise of oil price
Industry insiders pointed out that the tight supply side is the main factor leading to the rise of oil prices.
It is reported that the current policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) is to increase the production of 400000 barrels / day month by month and gradually restore the oil production stopped during the epidemic. In fact, due to the disturbance of political factors in OPEC + internal member states and the limitation of budget tightening, OPEC + production increase is limited to a certain extent, and the supply growth is relatively slow.
The continued decline in US crude oil inventories also raised supply concerns. According to the data released by the U.S. energy information administration, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 413 million barrels last week, a month on month decrease of 4.6 million barrels. API crude oil inventory decreased by 1077000 barrels in the week of January 7.
Although the impact of Omicron virus on the global economic recovery is limited, the oil supply is still tight. Investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and the oil price rebounded sharply.
With regard to the oil price trend in 2022, Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) pointed out that OPEC share lost under the background of production reduction. With the rapid recovery of oil price, the national financial pressure of oil producing countries has been significantly reduced. Whether the motivation to continue production reduction in the future is still urgent is debatable. On the one hand, at present, the number of crude oil drilling rigs in the United States has recovered, and there is great room for recovery of future production. On the other hand, the two trend declines in oil prices in 2021 are related to the spread of mutated viruses. If other mutated viruses reappear in 2022, the pessimism will be amplified when the mutated strains are unknown, and the tightening of epidemic prevention measures in various countries may disrupt the recovery rhythm of crude oil demand.
the oil sector rose more than 7%
In 2021, due to the continuous rise of global commodity prices, including crude oil, the A-share oil sector also caught fire. Last year, the oil index rose by more than 20%, far exceeding the Shanghai index in the same period. Since 2022, the crude oil sector has continued to improve under the general environment of market decline. As of the closing on January 13, the A-share oil index has increased by 7.25% since the new year’s day, and concept stocks have generally risen, Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , North Huajin Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(000059) and other stocks have increased by more than 10%.
Since new year’s day, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , Sino Geophysical Co.Ltd(300191) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) have increased the holdings of more than one million shares, but the overall increase amount is not too high.
From the valuation level, as of January 13, the rolling P / E ratio of eight oil stocks was less than 20 times, including China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , North Huajin Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(000059) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) . China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) P / E ratio is 7.63 times, with the lowest valuation, followed by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and rolling P / E ratio of 11.93 times.
Petrochina Company Limited(601857) the performance forecast was released on January 13. It is expected that the net profit in 2021 will increase by 71 billion yuan to 75 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 374% to 395%. The pre increase is mainly due to the simultaneous increase in volume and efficiency of oil and gas product sales. Based on this performance, the net profit of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) 2021 will exceed 90 billion yuan, the best level in the same period of nearly seven years.
Another oil stock Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) released a performance forecast on January 5. The company expects a net profit of 4.9 billion yuan to 5.05 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 267% to 278%, the best performance since the company was listed.
According to the unanimous prediction of more than three institutions, seven concept stocks predict that the performance will double year-on-year in 2021. In addition to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) , North Huajin Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(000059) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) institutions predict that the performance will increase by more than 150% year-on-year last year.
