Since mid December 2021, the Baijiu plate has been adjusted. Baijiu plate in January 13th again appeared to adjust, leading shares Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares fell more than 4%. The Fund believes that the Baijiu industry valuation is still relatively high, and the performance is difficult to exceed expectations, the short term plate is difficult to appear overall rise opportunities. For the future market, we still have a long-term interest in high-end and secondary Baijiu investment opportunities.
high short-term valuation
In January 13th, the Baijiu plate group adjusted, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 4.56%, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and so on dropped more than 5%. After the warmer recovery in the second half of 2021, the Baijiu plate continued to go down in the near future. Data show that in the past month, Baijiu index has been callback over 17%.
For the reasons for market adjustment, the construction trust fund said that the main reason is that the Baijiu price rises are expected to fail, and Baijiu plate rebounded, and the valuation increased. Although the fundamentals have not changed, under the disturbance of external negative factors, some of the funds involved in advance took profits, driving the adjustment of the food and beverage industry.
A public fund manager in Beijing said: "Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu" is still down, valuations and fundamentals remain the main factors. On the one hand, the valuation of liquor stocks is relatively expensive. From 2010, the quantile of the P / E and the net market rate of Baijiu has been at a historical high level. On the other hand, from the Perspective of the industry boom, the profit forecast of the white wine industry is stable and the marginal changes have not changed significantly.
He believes that in the short term, the valuation of the relatively high and profit is not expected, the Baijiu plate is difficult to appear the overall upward trend. In the long run, the fundamentals of Baijiu industry have not deteriorated, and they still have significant long-term investment value.
Although the stock price fluctuates greatly, in the view of fund managers, the industry fluctuation is much lower than the stock price fluctuation. Li Dan, manager of the national life insurance fund, said that the fundamentals of Baijiu plate are relatively strong. From the perspective of the whole industry cycle, the volume and price have not been down. Therefore, Baijiu plate is still in a boom cycle.
optimistic about high-end and sub high-end enterprises
Baijiu stocks continued callback, whether to the low layout point?
Bao Jigang, chairman of Wukong investment, said: Baijiu Baijiu has a relatively high degree of certainty after a round of valuation adjustment. It has rebounded in a certain range, and the share price has been out of the bottom area. If the future is to be high, there is still no new catalyst. This may take a long time. Since 2016, the higher share of liquor stocks has been attributed to the increase in valuation. In 2021, the PPI and CPI's "scissors difference" was larger. In addition, the performance was lower than expected, and the whole consumer industry concentrated on digesting the valuation. In 2022, under the background of the gradual convergence of PPI and CPI exposures, the upstream costs of consumer enterprises have decreased, and many wine enterprises are raising prices. These companies may have a double recovery in valuation and performance. "
For the latter, fund managers generally expressed their optimism about high-end and sub high-end Baijiu enterprises. Hou Hao, manager of China Merchants Fund, said that the liquor industry competition is very competitive. The leading enterprises have obvious advantages. The secondary Baijiu Baijiu has continuously deepened the brand culture. Both in terms of national expansion and product upgrading, the situation has shown a rapid growth. From the stock price, the stock that has the biggest increase in recent two years is the sub high-end Baijiu enterprise from the regional to the national expansion.
Yu Xiaochang, director of research group, said more attention was paid to investment opportunities of sub high end Baijiu and small and medium liquor companies. Under the trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading, leading enterprises' price increase has been transmitted to the entire industry, bringing the double increase of product volume and price. First, dealers may increase delivery before the price increase. Second, the profitability of the enterprise will be further improved after the price increase.
