Performance forecast data of some semiconductor companies, source: China stock market news choice data
Under the background of covid-19 pneumonia and the change of Global trade pattern, from the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, the global core shortage is becoming more and more intense, the price rise has become the main theme of the semiconductor industry, and the semiconductor companies have made a lot of money. As of January 12, 16 of the 17 A-share semiconductor companies that issued performance forecasts for 2021 had achieved performance growth.
Will the core shortage continue in 2022? Can the global semiconductor boom make rapid progress?
The reporter of Shanghai Securities News found that at present, due to the growing demand in automobile, industrial control and other fields, the supply of products such as power devices, semiconductor equipment and materials is still tight, and the delivery cycle is still prolonged. Looking forward to 2022, the global semiconductor industry will enter a more orderly growth, and the tightness of the industrial chain may be reduced, but there will still be a shortage of high-end chip products. The industry as a whole still maintained a high boom.
The continuous expansion of the Chinese market and the solid innovation of local enterprises have stirred each other, pushing China's semiconductors into a technology driven growth period, and more upstream equipment, materials and parts have begun to drive into the fast lane.
bright performance and accelerated localization of the whole industrial chain
Whether an industry develops well depends on the performance of relevant listed companies. As of the evening of January 13, 19 semiconductor companies have issued pre announcement of 2021 performance.
According to the statistics of Dongcai choice, since January 1, a number of chip industry chain companies such as Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) , Guoxin technology, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , Guangdong Leadyo Ic Testing Co.Ltd(688135) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. Previously, Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) , Juxin technology and Kelun electronics have made annual performance forecasts in the IPO prospectus.
Specifically, in addition to the decline in the performance of GuLun electronics, the other 18 companies achieved year-on-year growth in 2021. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Dongxin is expected to be RMB 225 million to RMB 240 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10 times. Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 408 million yuan to 413 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 192.78% to 196.37%. In addition, Guangdong Leadyo Ic Testing Co.Ltd(688135) , Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co.Ltd(002079) and other 8 companies exceeded 100% of the lower limit of net profit growth in 2021.
Some people in the industry interpret the substantial growth of the performance of semiconductor companies in 2021, which is largely due to the fact that under the background of global core shortage and rising product prices, relevant companies seize the opportunity to launch new products and increase shipments.
"In 2022, the localization of the whole semiconductor industry chain will be accelerated." The above insiders further explained that demand and technology drive the development of semiconductor industry at both ends, and the internationalization of China's complete machine industries such as mobile phones, home appliances and computers provides a demand drive for the development of China's semiconductor industry. Now, under the catalysis of many factors such as the science and innovation board and the new pattern of Global trade, China's semiconductor industry has entered a technology driven growth period, more attention has been paid to the localized supply chain, and the more upstream equipment, materials and parts have begun to enter a period of rapid development.
Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) is a typical example of local semiconductor equipment in the attack. Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) in the latest reply from interactive easy, investors said that the company launched the 12 inch independent optical linewidth measurement equipment (OCD) and 12 inch automatic electron beam wafer defect review equipment (review SEM) of a head wafer factory in July 2021. At present, the verification is progressing very smoothly.
the boom is still short of core, and the phenomenon begins to divide
From the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, global semiconductors are running wildly in the high business cycle, and the lack of core has become a hot word across the year. But on the other hand, the market is also constantly worried about the decline of semiconductor boom and the surplus of chips when you wake up.
Who has the resources to get these chips of ADI? On the occasion of frequent weak market demand, the reporter recently saw that someone in a semiconductor industry group frequently sought cores. Will there be a lack of core in 2022?
The reporter's comprehensive view is that, on the whole, global semiconductors will still maintain a high outlook in 2022. Vertically, there is still tight supply in the upstream of the industrial chain; Horizontally, affected by demand, downstream chip products enter the differentiated market of supply and price.
"Limited by the delivery date of the equipment, the silicon wafer factory can not expand production rapidly, the supply of 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafer continues to be tight, and the price will rise." Executives of a domestic semiconductor silicon wafer company told reporters that by 2025, China's monthly demand for 12 inch silicon wafers will reach 2 million, which is twice the demand in 2020. However, at present, only a few companies in China such as National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) and Shanghai Super silicon can supply 12 inch silicon wafer products, which is far from meeting local demand.
How tight are semiconductor devices? "In order to place an order for a piece of equipment, I went to Japan three times a week." A senior executive of a silicon wafer factory complained to reporters. A domestic semiconductor equipment company also said that its equipment business orders are hot, and the delivery time is more than 8 months.
The expansion of the wafer factory not only needs to wait for equipment, but also continues to feel the supply pressure of consumables such as silicon wafers, and the opening cycle of new capacity is lengthened. According to public information, TSMC, liandian and lattice core in the field of wafer manufacturing have publicly stated that their production capacity will not only be sold out in 2022, but the product price is still rising.
"The capacity of the wafer factory is still tight, but the capacity of the packaging factory has begun to loosen, and the supply of individual chip products downstream has begun to be surplus." Many industry insiders said that looking forward to 2022, although some chips may still be in shortage, the most chaotic period of the global semiconductor supply chain has passed, the scheduling cycle of packaging plants has begun to shorten, and the channel prices of some chip products have begun to fall, which means that the global semiconductor industry is beginning to move towards a more orderly development and help the industry maintain a longer-term high outlook.
"Now there are fewer urgent orders, the production capacity will not burst, and we can have the energy to do some new projects." As the production capacity tension has been alleviated, executives of a packaging listed company said that this will help the company, customers and industry develop more healthily and innovatively.
the delivery time is extended, and the demand of the three major tracks is strong
Under the structural market, which chips are more popular?
"In addition to consumer electronics, the demand in the fields of automobile and industrial control is very strong." The relevant person in charge of an FPGA chip company told reporters that they do feel the weakness of consumer electronics demand, but the demand in other fields is good. The statement of the FPGA chip company was also recognized by the relevant person of a power semiconductor listed company. The latter told reporters: "now place an order for us. The delivery date of general customers is more than half a year, and the delivery date of short material number is longer."
Industry insiders predict that the sales growth of China's passenger car market in 2022 is expected to be 3% to 8%, which will require more automotive chips.
The reporter learned from various interviews that at present, the supply of panel driven IC, consumer MCU and mass storage began to loosen, and the prices of some products began to fall. However, some power semiconductors, especially chips used in automotive, industrial control, IOT (Internet of things) and other fields, are still tight, and the delivery dates of some products of ansenmey, Renesas, Italian French semiconductor, Infineon and other companies have been extended.
"Demand is created." A semiconductor and complete machine manufacturing company does not agree with the statement of weak consumer demand. In an interview with reporters, he said that only by providing consumers with innovative products can they receive demand. At present, the demand for innovative and competitive consumer electronics products has been recovering strongly, especially the shipments of notebook computers, smart watches, SIP headphones, smart cockpits of new energy vehicles, low-power servers and other products have increased rapidly.
The above statements of semiconductor and machine manufacturing companies have also been recognized by relevant companies in the fields of Bluetooth chips and LED driver chips. An executive of a Bluetooth chip company said that since the second half of 2021, the decline in cottage demand has led to a decline in the growth rate of the whole TWS headset industry, but the brand TWS headset market is still growing steadily. In the field of LED, the demand for intelligent lighting is still growing steadily.
