After a brief warmer quarter in 2021, Baijiu stocks continued to decline in the near future. In January 13th, the Baijiu plate was hit hard again, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 4.56%, and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) dropped more than 5%.
Data show that in the past month, Baijiu index callback exceeded 17%.
Why Baijiu stocks fell? Has the plate reached the layout time point? What investment opportunities are there in the consumer industry?
On these issues, zhongzhengjun interviewed some fund managers. Fund managers interviewed generally believe that Baijiu industry valuation is still relatively high, and the performance is difficult to exceed expectations. However, in the long run, the Baijiu industry has continued to grow in profitability and the investment is relatively high.
industry fluctuation is lower than stock price fluctuation
Zhong Jun: what is the recent fluctuation in Baijiu industry? Is Baijiu stock the right time to layout?
Jianxin fund : the main reason for the fall today is that liquor prices are expected to fail, and the Baijiu Baijiu has rebounded recently, and the valuation has increased. Although there was no change in fundamentals, under the disturbance of external bad news, the floating profit taking led the decline in the food and beverage industry.
, a public fund manager in Beijing, Baijiu shares fell, valuations and fundamentals remained the main factor. On the one hand, Baijiu stock is relatively high valuation, according to the calculation of 2010 to date, the PE and PB valuation quantiles of Baijiu are still at a historical high. On the other hand, from the perspective of industry boom, the Baijiu industry's profit forecast is stable, and marginal changes have not significantly improved.
In the short term, the Baijiu industry is difficult to have a systematic upward trend under the premise that the valuation is relatively high and the profit table does not significantly improve expectations. However, in the long run, the fundamentals of Baijiu industry have not changed, and they still have significant long-term investment value.
Li Dan, manager of China Life Insurance Fund, : the volatility of Baijiu industry is not so intense as stock price volatility. Baijiu stocks have a strong fundamentals. From the perspective of a complete industry cycle, the volume and price have not been down. Baijiu shares are still in the business cycle.
in the Baijiu: Recently, the liquor industry ushered in price surges. Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and other enterprises announced the price increase. What's the impact on the share price?
Li Dan : the underlying logic of price increase is consumption upgrading. In recent years, the share price of wine enterprises has risen. The growth does not come from the increase of consumption, but from the increase of unit price brought by consumption upgrading. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is more optimistic about the two or three line liquor stocks, although the whole liquor industry is upgrading the brand, but the valuation of the first-line liquor stocks may have already reflected the basic situation in advance, and the response to the two or three line Baijiu stock is not enough.
Yu Xiaochang, director of research capital, : under the trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading, leading enterprises' price increases are transmitted to the whole industry, bringing about double improvement of product volume and price. First, dealers may increase their pick-up before the price increases. Two, the profit situation will be improved after raising prices, and more attention will be paid to the investment opportunities of the high-end Baijiu and small and medium liquor enterprises.
Bao Jigang, , chairman of Wukong Investment: , from 2016, 70% of Baijiu shares rose from valuation. In 2021, the scissors difference between PPI and CPI was large, and the performance was lower than expected, so the whole consumer industry concentrated on digesting the valuation. In 2022, under the background of the gradual convergence of PPI and CPI exposures, the upstream costs of consumer enterprises decreased, and many wine enterprises raised prices. These companies may have a double recovery in valuation and performance.
generally optimistic about the high-end Baijiu enterprise
in the way of "Jun Jun": how to judge the investment opportunities of Baijiu industry in 2022?
Hou Hao, manager of China Merchants Fund, : optimistic about high-end and sub high end Baijiu stocks. In the competitive pattern of Baijiu industry, the advantages of leading enterprises are very obvious. The secondary Baijiu liquor has been developing rapidly in the aspect of national expansion and upgrading of products. From the stock price, the stock that has the biggest increase in recent two years is the sub Baijiu liquor enterprise that expanded from regional to national expansion in the past.
At present, the second Baijiu liquor industry is in a rapid expansion stage. Many enterprises put forward strategic innovation to create unique high-quality products, which has experienced the stage from distribution to dealer dividend release. In addition, many high-end liquor enterprises have made a combination of endogenous growth such as equity incentive plans and product line renewal iterations, which may form a combination of brand empowerment, enterprise empowerment and dealer empowerment in 2022.
Bao Jigang: , in the long run, Baijiu enterprise profits continue to grow, but the growth rate is slower than the stock price growth. After a round of valuation adjustment, the stock price rebounded at the end of 2021, leaving the bottom area. However, it may take a long time if we want to reach a new high in the future and lack new catalysts.
emerging consumer investment is sensitive to short-term changes
zhongzhengjun: how do you view the investment opportunities in emerging consumer industries?
Yu Xiaochang: emerging consumer areas can pay attention to investment opportunities such as artificial diamonds, sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , blind boxes, etc. Some investment opportunities in these fields come from the obvious improvement of product power, which drives the expansion of consumer groups; Some products have a sharp jump in cost performance to meet the needs of the sinking market; Some meet the emerging needs of consumers and continue to expand relying on a good single store model.
However, emerging consumer investment is more sensitive to short-term changes than traditional consumer goods. In good times, market expectations are often optimistic. On the contrary, market expectations are facing great correction pressure.
Li Dan: optimistic about emerging consumer areas such as small household appliances. There is a strong demand in the small household appliance industry. There is a lot of room for growth in demand, whether it is cleaning products, kitchen products or projectors. Under the general trend of consumption upgrading, the needs of young consumers are more diversified. For the investment in small household appliance industry, the core essence is to pay attention to the ability of enterprise product innovation and channel innovation.
However, compared with the consumption era in which large single products are easy to appear in the past, the demand of the new generation of consumers is more fragmented, the products are updated quickly, and it is difficult to have a 10 billion market, resulting in a relatively short investment cycle of small household appliances. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes on the demand side, track the consumption dynamics in time, and adjust the investment behavior according to the demand data. As the consumption demand of single products fluctuates periodically, the stock price of the industry fluctuates greatly. Take the multi-functional pot as an example. When the product scale or penetration reaches a certain level, the growth rate will decrease. Therefore, we also need to pay attention to the product innovation cycle.
