Pork prices may usher in an inflection point in 2022, and these companies are expected to usher in a high outlook.
Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) suspend business for rectification for three months
On January 13, Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) issued an announcement. After the study of Xi\’an Health Committee, the two hospitals were closed for rectification for three months, and the two hospitals were reopened after the rectification was qualified. According to the regulations, this event triggered the corresponding situation of “other risk warnings for the shares of listed companies”. The trading of the company’s shares was suspended for one day from the opening of the market on January 14 and resumed from the opening of the market on January 17. Since the opening of the company’s stock market on January 17, other risk warnings have been implemented, and the abbreviation of the company’s stock has been changed from ” Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) ” to “St national medicine”.
On the news side, due to the refusal of diagnosis in Xi\’an epidemic prevention and control, Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) two hospitals in Xi\’an, Xi\’an high tech hospital and Xi\’an Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) central hospital were notified by Xi\’an Health Commission. After the outbreak of this round of epidemic, Xi\’an high tech hospital and Xi\’an Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) Central Hospital failed to implement the “people first and life first” into the medical treatment work, had a weak sense of responsibility, failed to perform the responsibility of saving the dead and healing the wounded, and failed to implement the core medical quality management systems such as first diagnosis responsibility and rescue of acute and critical patients, resulting in delays in the rescue and diagnosis and treatment of acute and critical patients, It has aroused widespread concern of public opinion and had a bad social impact.
On January 13, Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) closed the limit shortly after opening, with a cumulative decline of more than 25% since January 5. It is noteworthy that under the three-month suspension of business for rectification, Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) the performance of the first quarter of this year may be significantly affected, and it is likely to “lose everything”.
pork prices have fallen nearly 60% since the high point
In 2022, under the background of the recovery of pig production capacity and the increase of breeding enterprises, pig prices continue to decline. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, on October 9, 2021, the average wholesale price was less than 18 yuan / kg, which almost returned to the level in mid-2018. Then it rebounded slightly, and the latest average wholesale price was less than 22 yuan / kg. Compared with the highest price of 52 yuan / kg in early November 2019, the latest price decreased by nearly 60%.
In addition, relevant data show that the selling price of pigs has fallen from 16.45 yuan / kg on January 1, 2022 to 14.33 yuan / kg on January 12, a decrease of 15%. For the first time, the self bred pig breeding enterprises have fallen below the breakeven line.
the number of fertile sows decreased for 5 consecutive months
The sharp decline in pork prices is necessary to be related to the pig cycle and the relationship between supply and demand. The pig cycle time is generally long. Since 2006, China has experienced four rounds of pig cycle, and the bottom grinding period of each round is very long. This round of pig cycle is no exception.
the core of the rebound in pork prices is to go to the column . In September 2021, China’s pig stock reached 437.64 million, almost the same as the peak in recent eight years. The number of fertile sows determines the production capacity of pigs, and the elimination process of this round of fertile sows has begun in July 2021. In November 2021, the number of fertile sows decreased for five consecutive months since July, but it is still at a relatively high level.
The net profit of 3 shares in the third quarterly report of 2021 exceeded in 2020
In fact, after the sharp decline in pig prices, breeding enterprises suffered large losses, but the industry concentration also increased. The leading enterprises expanded against the trend and occupied a certain market share.
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, there are five companies with year-on-year growth in the net profit of the third quarterly report in 2021, namely Guangdong Guanghong Holdings Co.Ltd(000529) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , of which the net profit of new shares Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) 2021 is 203 million yuan, and the net profit in 2021 is 269 million yuan, less than half of the former in the same period in 2020.
In addition, among the above five shares, including Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , the net profit of three companies in the first three quarters exceeded that of the whole year of 2020, namely Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) , of which Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) owned the breeding and sales business of breeding pigs and commercial pigs, and the pig revenue accounted for 9% of the company’s total revenue in 2017.
the middle of 2022 may usher in an inflection point
When the inflection point of the pig cycle will come is a common concern of farmers and investors. Combined with the views of several institutions, it is found that the industry consensus is that in the first half of this year, under the influence of low pig prices, fertile sows will enter the accelerated decontamination stage, and the market is expected to rebound as early as the middle of the year.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that the price inflection point of this pig cycle is expected to be from April to June 2022. Under the background of low pig prices in the first quarter, the de capacity of pigs is expected to accelerate. Market expectations for the reversal of the pig cycle strengthened, catalyzing the recent plate performance. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) analysts believe that the current pig cycle has been 44 months since it was opened in May 2018, which is close to the typical length of the past pig cycle, and a new round of pig cycle may be opened in the second quarter of 2022.
12 shares have been added by foreign capital since the beginning of the year
The pig cycle is approaching, and the share prices of some companies have responded in advance. According to data treasure statistics, pig industry stocks have increased by an average of more than 5% since 2022, significantly outperforming the market. 7 shares have increased by more than 10% since 2022, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) by more than 20%, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) by more than 15%, and Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) by more than 10%.
According to the agency’s prediction of the increase of net profit in 2021, five shares are expected to increase significantly, Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) increase by more than 200%, and Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) increase by more than 50%.
Professionals believe that pork prices are still falling at this stage, but in the future, with the end of this round of pig cycle, pig industry stocks may usher in a new high outlook.
According to the statistics of databao, since 2022, compared with the end of December, 12 shares have been increased by going north, and Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) have been increased most significantly, both exceeding 0.6 percentage points; Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Hefeng animal husbandry exceed 0.1 percentage point, of which Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) mainly adopts the mode of self breeding. Pig breeding includes industrial chain integration businesses such as great grandparent purebred pigs, ancestral purebred pigs, parental binary breeding pigs and commercial ternary pigs. According to the net profit growth predicted by the institution of – 157.3%, the performance of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) is expected to reverse in the fourth quarter of 2021, or a profit of 175 million yuan.
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