Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Xiangcai Securities: policy support is the biggest catalyst for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry in 2022
Policy support is the biggest catalyst for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry in 2022. On the demand side, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the policy side, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continued addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese Medicine industry. The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has certain valuation advantages after valuation repair. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages” jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven.
In terms of investment suggestions, (1) pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine, and pay attention to the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and layout of large categories (large market: cardio cerebrovascular + fast growth: pediatric drugs); (2) Pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine; (3) Benefit from consumption upgrading and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage. []
Guorong Securities: under the background of price increase and low inventory brand traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with good performance will get market attention
Recently, the pharmaceutical sector is in the process of valuation equilibrium, that is, due to the positive release of policies, the trend of traditional Chinese medicine and medical devices in the undervalued sector is good, while CXO and medical service sectors with more institutional positions and more early gains are callback due to the uncertain factors derived from the event. Looking back, it is estimated that this market will still deduce in the short term, that is, the undervalued repair is expected to continue. With the release of the risk under the correction of overestimated sectors, the performance forecast of the superimposed 2021 annual report will usher in the disclosure period from January to February, and the relevant sectors may enter a reasonable range in 2022 with the release of performance.
In 2022, we can focus on the following areas: ① medical equipment: the bottleneck of domestic high-end equipment continues to break through. With the help of policies and China’s medical infrastructure construction, equipment enterprises that are expected to rapidly and in large quantities, such as: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Aohua endoscopy.
② OTC of traditional Chinese medicine: the policy is favorable continuously, and under the background of price increase and low inventory, the brand traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with good performance and enterprises with more clinical projects of innovative traditional Chinese medicine in 2022 will still receive medium and long-term attention in the market. Such as: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) .
③ chain pharmacies: in 2021, the performance of chain pharmacies was poor due to multiple factors such as high base number / epidemic prevention policy flow restriction / new lease criteria / delayed profits of new stores. In 2022, under the background of stricter internet medical supervision, leading pharmacies had marginal improvement in the above factors, such as: Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Guangxi Liuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603368) .
④ elderly care and rehabilitation: after the implementation of dip / DRGs policy, the hospital has the power to improve the turnover efficiency of beds. With the continuous catalysis of the national elderly care policy, the rehabilitation medical equipment industry is expected to enter an intensive procurement period in the next two years. Attention can be paid to: Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) , Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688580) , Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) . []
open source Securities: domestic equipment enterprises look for certainty and high prosperity development opportunities explore investment opportunities from two angles
With the in-depth promotion of medical reform, domestic device enterprises look for certainty and high prosperity development opportunities in danger and opportunity. With the advancement of the new medical reform, some policies such as unified consumables coding, centralized procurement of consumables and DRG / Dip medical insurance payment have had a far-reaching impact on the supervision and operation of the medical device industry, reconstructed the product pattern of medical device manufacturers and changed the future development strategy. Chinese manufacturers closely follow the pace of national health care reform, look for deterministic tracks, actively promote technology upgrading, innovation iteration and domestic substitution, and actively seek opportunities to go to sea.
It is suggested to explore investment opportunities from two perspectives: first, policy beneficiaries such as centralized procurement, and the recommended target is the life science polymer consumables provider Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) ; Second, there may be negative policy impact in the short term, but in the long term, through medical equipment and device companies that meet the new clinical needs and have the ability of domestic substitution and globalization, the recommended target: Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) ; Beneficiaries: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Beijing Wandong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(600055) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) , minimally invasive medical treatment, Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) medical equipment, Shanghai Microport Endovascular Medtech (Group) Co.Ltd(688016) , Xinwei medical treatment, Kontour(Xi’An) Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688314) , etc. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is in a safe position the style switching within the sector is obvious
Traditional Chinese medicine: policy support continues to increase and grasp the pro cyclical investment opportunities under the undervalued value of the sector. We should focus on three types of targets: 1) expand and subdivide the track. Resource attributes create a policy haven, medicine and food are of the same origin, expand market demand, the liberalization of standards accelerates the development of the industry, and the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule industry is expected to usher in the industry expansion period. Optimistic about the production enterprises of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules with upstream planting (breeding) resources, high standards and early layout; 2) It is a high-quality enterprise that returns to the drug attribute, has definite product curative effect and has the ability to continuously produce new products. Efficacy first, clinical evidence-based is the king, and we are optimistic about excellent traditional Chinese medicine enterprises whose products have been fully verified by evidence-based medicine and recognized by doctors; 3) Object of consumption attribute. The ability to pay is strong, and the impact of medical insurance policy is small. It is a leading OTC enterprise with low unit price, wide function, popular brand OTC, optimistic about products occupying consumers’ minds, stable pattern and good brand image under long-term accumulation.
Innovative drugs, CXO: focus on high-quality companies with sufficient callback and global innovation ability. Recently, influenced by the international situation, changes in market style and other aspects, the innovative drugs and CXO sectors have been greatly adjusted; We believe that global innovation is still the main line of the pharmaceutical industry, and recommend high-quality companies with sufficient callback and global innovation ability.
In terms of investment suggestions, policy support, traditional Chinese medicine welcomes investment opportunities; Callback fully, innovation meets the good opportunity of layout. At present, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is in a safe position, and the style switching within the sector is obvious. We suggest to grasp the traditional Chinese medicine sector with increased policy support, excellent fundamentals and reasonable valuation, and a high-quality company with sufficient layout and global innovation ability. The strategic portfolio in January was a shares: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) ; Hong Kong stocks: Yaoming biology, kingship biotechnology, Chinese traditional medicine, kangnoah, Xianjian technology.
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Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) : continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market of traditional Chinese medicine from three aspects of policy, fundamentals and valuation
Continue to be optimistic about the follow-up market of traditional Chinese medicine from the three aspects of policy, fundamentals and valuation. From the policy side, the national medical insurance bureau and the administration of traditional Chinese Medicine issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, giving full play to the institutional advantages of medical insurance to support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the immune attribute of medical insurance of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods is prominent. From a fundamental point of view, there are three opportunities: first, the price of upstream Chinese herbal medicines has increased, and the price of downstream products has increased one after another, such as Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) ; Second, the inventory clearance of downstream channels is coming to an end, and the inventory turnover is accelerated, which is expected to usher in the replenishment cycle; Third, the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises will release dividends, and equity incentives will be implemented one after another, greatly releasing the enthusiasm of employees, which is expected to be realized to the performance end in the future. From the perspective of valuation, the traditional Chinese medicine sector has experienced many years of correction since 2015, with PE (TTM) of 34.2 times, which is equivalent to the overall valuation of medicine and is in the central position. Combined with the annual strategy, in January, we continued to be optimistic about traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, one of the main lines of “crossing medical insurance”, and suggested paying attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Tibet Cheezheng Tibetan Medicine Co.Ltd(002287) , Heilongjiang Zbd Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603567) . []
Capital Securities: four on the sustainability of the recent Chinese medicine market
Recently, the market performance of the traditional Chinese medicine industry is strong. We believe that there is a strong foundation for the sustainability of the traditional Chinese medicine market in the aspects of traditional Chinese Medicine Inheritance and innovation, payment, price increase and centralized collection with volume.
First, the reform of the evaluation system of traditional Chinese medicine and the optimization of registration classification laid the first year for the great development of classic famous prescriptions, tested prescriptions and national drugs of traditional Chinese medicine. In 2021, the State Food and Drug Administration urgently approved three new traditional Chinese medicine drugs against covid-19 virus, and approved the market application of eight new traditional Chinese medicine drugs such as Yishen Yangxin Anshen tablets, with the largest number of new traditional Chinese medicine drugs approved in the past five years.
Second, the payment policy is conducive to the great development of traditional Chinese medicine. Recently, the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine and the State Medical Insurance Bureau jointly issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, adding medical insurance at the payment end to support the inheritance and development of traditional Chinese medicine.
Third, due to the price rise of upstream traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine (decoction pieces and proprietary Chinese Medicine) is one of the few pharmaceutical products with the basis of price rise. Due to the rise of raw material prices, many traditional Chinese medicine enterprises have successively announced the price rise of some products.
Fourth, the purchase of traditional Chinese medicine with quantity, the centralized collection and landing of traditional Chinese medicine are relatively mild, the number of exclusive varieties of traditional Chinese medicine is large, and the competition is relatively mild.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about the following traditional Chinese medicine categories: Traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces and formula particles: Chinese traditional Chinese medicine and Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) . Brand Chinese patent medicine: Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) etc. OTC Chinese patent medicine varieties: optimistic about Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jiuzhitang Co.Ltd(000989) , etc. []
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : the status of traditional Chinese medicine has been raised to an unprecedented level the performance of the sector may be further improved
With the strong promotion of national policies, the status of traditional Chinese medicine has been raised to an unprecedented level. It is expected that the performance of the sector may be further improved with the continuous improvement of the industry pattern, the good epidemic prevention and control in China, and the downstream price increase driven by the rising price of traditional Chinese medicine. At present, the valuation of traditional Chinese medicine is reasonable: (1) under the reform of the review and approval system of traditional Chinese medicine, the approval of innovative traditional Chinese medicine is accelerated. 2021 is the most listed year in recent years. It is suggested to pay attention to the listed companies of high-quality innovative traditional Chinese medicine with strong comprehensive strength Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) ; (2) Some time-honored and OTC brand products have consumption attributes and avoid the medical insurance fee control policy. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc.
The overall development trend of the industry is improving, and innovation is the eternal theme. On the one hand, the normalization of volume procurement continues to accelerate industry differentiation, forcing enterprises to transform to innovation; On the other hand, the medical insurance catalogue was dynamically adjusted to continuously accelerate the volume of innovative drugs. Driven by policies, talents and capital, China’s innovative drugs have entered the harvest period of achievements and opened the road of Internationalization: (1) at present, China’s innovative drug R & D is more homogeneous, with more concentrated targets and indications. The industry has gradually transformed and upgraded from me too / me worth to higher quality and more innovative me better and first in class, with strong R & D strength and rich pipelines, The advantages of domestic innovation leading enterprises with reasonable gradient and outstanding product differentiation advantages will be further highlighted. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , etc; (2) With the progress of science and technology, new medical discoveries, new technologies and new fields are emerging, and biological emerging markets such as cell and gene therapy are developing rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to industrial development trends, high-quality enterprises and upstream industrial chains, such as life science services; (3) Global and Chinese innovative drug R & D is booming, and China’s CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that with the promotion of policies and the continuous improvement of technical level, the industry concentration is expected to further improve. It is recommended to pay attention to industry leaders and sub leaders, such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) . []
Cinda Securities: large medical image market space high industry barriers
Medical imaging market has large space and high industry barriers. In 2020, the market scale of China’s medical imaging industry has reached 53.7 billion yuan, but the per capita equipment ownership still lags behind that of developed countries. The national policy encourages equipment sinking. Driven by demand and policy, the market scale of China will continue to grow. It is expected that the market scale will be about 110 billion yuan in 2030, and the average annual compound growth rate is expected to reach 7.3%. High end Mr, high-end CT, economical CT, PET / CT and other markets will become the main growth points. The high-end imaging equipment industry is a multi-disciplinary, knowledge intensive and innovation intensive industry. Equipment R & D needs to have technical advantages, talent advantages and capital advantages, so the industry barriers are very high. []
