In the past two years, the covid-19 epidemic has overturned the fundamental trend of many industries and created many annual bull stocks. The Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) in 2020 and Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) in 2021 are all due to the rapid change of fundamentals, and the share price has increased 10 times in a few months.
At the beginning of 2022, the Omicron mutant spread all over the world, catalyzing the soaring market of covid-19 detection concept. Among them, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) stimulated by continuous good news, the stock price rose more than 10 times in more than two months. Another covid-19 Bull Stock Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) has risen by more than 70% since the new year and has doubled since last year.
The Research Report of securities companies is an important reference for studying and judging the fundamental trends of individual stocks and industries. The reporter noted that on January 13, the leading Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) in the securities industry released a Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) stock research report, which significantly revised the profit forecast for Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) 2022 by nearly 300%, and raised the company's target price.
Under the background that Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) share prices have risen sharply in the short term, securities companies are still high and actively singing more. Is this a risk or an opportunity?
Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) profit forecast was significantly raised
On January 13, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Research Department released Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) stock research report, entitled comments on Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) major issues: the United States launched covid-19 rapid detection plan, bred a new blue ocean for antigen detection and raised the target price.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said in the report that the U.S. government will officially implement the covid-19 rapid detection plan from January 15, 2022. This plan can be compared with the previous "moon landing plan" launched by the British government, which is mainly aimed at rapid detection, home self inspection and other scenarios. It is expected that the landing demand will focus on more convenient antigen detection products.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that considering the overall population base of the United States and the newly diagnosed number of covid-19 in a single day in recent times, it is expected to greatly stimulate the procurement demand of antigen detection products under the background of the smooth progress of the follow-up plan.
At the company level, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that looking forward to the subsequent order allocation in the U.S. market, the supply share of Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) in the U.S. government procurement channel is worth looking forward to:
On the one hand, the preparation process of the company's antigen detection products from raw materials to final products is under independent control, with strong quality control ability, and the quality has been verified by practical application in the European market; On the other hand, Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) the in-depth cooperation mode with Siemens has been fully verified in the European market. Both parties perform their respective duties and Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) control the core technology, product quality and production process. Siemens provides brand endorsement and its strong market channel and after-sales system. They cooperate tacitly and have a strong ability to continuously place orders.
To sum up, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) gives the profit forecast and investment suggestions in the report: the earnings per share forecast of Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) from 2021 to 2023 is revised to 45.04/75.49/40.25 yuan (the original forecast is 41.67/19.28/19.96 yuan, corresponding to the revision range of 8% / 292% / 102%). Raise the target price to 528 yuan, corresponding to 7 times PE in 2022, and maintain the "buy" rating.
As of today's noon closing, Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) share price rose 19.64% in half a day, and the latest price was 410.40 yuan / share.
is the profit forecast of securities companies reliable?
In recent years, with the acceleration of institutionalization, the importance of studying and judging the industry boom trend has obviously exceeded the general trend, and the individual stock profit forecast issued by the Securities Research Institute has attracted more and more attention. But whether these profit forecasts are really accurate, many people in the industry have expressed their views recently.
A person from an institution said that since 2019, boom investment focusing on high profit growth expectations has achieved significant excess returns. It has been impacted by the epidemic since 2020, which has passively accelerated the switching rhythm of market profit expectations. Recent market performance reflects that some forward-looking investors begin to price more long-term profit expectations. However, from the A-share profit forecast since the data are available, most industries predict that the hit rate of industry profits in the next two years is less than 50%, "too fast profit expectation switching will also bring more risks to boom investment."
By calculating the historical data of the past ten years, the person believes that institutions often have a high accuracy in short-term forecasts. For example, after the release of the third quarterly report, the probability that the profit of the current year will fall within double the standard deviation is almost 100%.
However, with the extension of time, only about half of the profit forecasts can fall within double the standard deviation when predicting the profit growth in one year; If the time is extended to two years, this hit rate will only fall in the consumption and real estate chain industry with exceptionally stable profit growth.
"Therefore, on the whole, from the perspective of stretching to one year or even longer, too fast profit expectation switching will often bring more risks to boom investment." The person said.
More authoritative data show that in terms of analysts' profit forecasts for Shanghai stock exchange companies in 2020, among the 633 companies with profit forecasts, the average deviation between the profit forecast and the actual deviation at the beginning of the year exceeded 70%, and the average deviation between the profit forecast and the actual deviation in the middle of the year was nearly 50%. Until the dust of the results was settled at the end of the year, the relevant deviation value was reduced to less than 30%.
