Affected by the continuous decline of the industry and the epidemic situation, the property market did not usher in the “gold, silver and four” market this year.
One third of 2022 has passed, but no matter from the aspects of sales performance, profit performance, financing and land market, real estate enterprises have not come out of the cold winter of the industry.
Recently, statistics released by several institutions show that from January to April this year, the cumulative sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises “halved”, and the profits of listed real estate enterprises fell in a large area in the first quarter. At the same time, the first batch of centralized land supply in many cities this year did not perform well, and the overall investment of real estate enterprises fell significantly; Domestic and foreign bond issuance continued to decline significantly, and the financial dilemma of real estate enterprises remains to be solved.
In the first four months, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises “halved”
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, there were only three real estate enterprises with sales of 100 billion yuan in the first April of this year, compared with nine in the same period in 2021. In contrast, even the leading real estate enterprises will not be able to survive in the downward environment of the industry in 2022.
In the past April, due to the rebound of China’s epidemic, the downward pressure on the real estate market intensified, and the year-on-year decline in transactions further expanded. According to Kerui data, in April, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities decreased by 18% month on month, and the year-on-year decline expanded to 58%. Among them, the first tier cities decreased by 47% year-on-year, and the market turnover of 26 second and third tier cities expanded to 60% year-on-year.
The sales performance of real estate enterprises fell with the “report card” of many markets. According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, in the first April, the top 3 real estate enterprises country garden, Vanke and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) achieved sales of 163.39 billion yuan, 138 billion yuan and 121.2 billion yuan respectively, but the total sales were 422.6 billion yuan, a net decrease of 300.1 billion yuan compared with the 722.7 billion yuan of the top 3 real estate enterprise “biwanheng” in the same period in 2021.
Not only did the sales of the top 3 real estate enterprises decline significantly, but the average decline of the cumulative sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first April also increased month by month, from a year-on-year decline of 23% in January to a year-on-year decline of 50% in April. Specifically, the average sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the first April was 21.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.2%, and the threshold value of the list of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 60.4% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that since April, the relaxation policy of the property market has gradually spread from third and fourth tier cities to hot second tier cities. How will the frequent policy warm wind affect the future trend of the property market?
“In the short term, the real estate regulation and control policy has entered an intensive optimization period. Some restrictive policies introduced in the early market upward stage are no longer suitable for the current market stage. It is expected that all localities will continue to increase credit support, reduce down payment and mortgage interest rates, and moderately optimize the policies of purchase restriction, sale restriction and price restriction to promote the recovery of sales.” Chen Wenjing, director of Market Research of index division of China Index Research Institute, told the reporter of daily economic news through wechat on April 29 that under the general tone of “housing, housing and non speculation”, the expectation of short-term adjustment policy is weak in some core cities where the market has gradually stabilized and recovered.
45 A-share real estate enterprises lost money in the first quarter
From the disclosure of the first quarterly report of listed real estate enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen this year, according to wind statistics, 126 real estate enterprises have achieved an operating revenue of 326875 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.02 billion yuan attributable to the shareholders of the parent company, of which 45 real estate enterprises lost money in the first quarter.
In terms of revenue, in the first quarter, Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and CNOOC real estate led A-Shares with revenue of 95.948 billion yuan, 62.667 billion yuan, 33.537 billion yuan and 28.83 billion yuan respectively. In addition, the operating income of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) four real estate enterprises also exceeded 10 billion yuan, respectively 18.801 billion yuan, 18.678 billion yuan, 13.314 billion yuan and 12.672 billion yuan.
At the same time, the revenue of 31 real estate enterprises decreased by more than 40% year-on-year in the first quarter. Among them, Deluxe Family Co.Ltd(600503) , Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600684) decreased by 98.49% and 95.57% respectively The income of Sanxiang Impression Co.Ltd(000863) , Metro Land Corporation Ltd(600683) , Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) decreased by more than 80%.
From the perspective of net profit performance, the net profit of 34 listed real estate enterprises exceeded 100 million yuan. Among the leading real estate enterprises, the net profit of Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) in the first quarter was 2.547 billion yuan, 2.53 billion yuan and 1.428 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of – 35.24%, 1.18% and 10.58% respectively.
Among the 45 loss making real estate enterprises, more than half of them lost more than 100 million yuan, of which Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Co.Ltd(600266) and Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Co.Ltd(600266) lost more than 1 billion yuan. In addition, Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) , Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) , Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) , Dima Holdings Co.Ltd(600565) and other real estate enterprises disclosed losses.
“Since last year, the profitability of listed real estate enterprises has declined significantly, which is mainly affected by the epidemic situation, the continuation of strict regulation and control and the decline of the market. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 this year, it was pointed out that supporting the adjustment of real estate policies due to urban implementation and supporting rigid and improving demand, the market sales will pick up significantly in the future. With the recovery of real estate sales and the limited growth rate of land prices, the profitability of real estate enterprises may improve.”
Liu Shui, the research director of the enterprise business department of China Index Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of daily economic news through wechat on the morning of May 5, “in the short term, the profitability of real estate enterprises may improve this year and the profitability will be repaired; but in the long term, the profitability of real estate enterprises still shows a downward trend and will gradually keep pace with the average profit level of the society.”
The total land acquisition of 50 real estate enterprises decreased by nearly 60%
The financial pressure is difficult to relieve, and the superimposed sales remain depressed, which makes most real estate enterprises choose silence in the land market.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, from January to April 2022, the total land acquisition amount of Top100 enterprises was 362.6 billion yuan, and the land acquisition scale decreased by 55.9% year-on-year. In April, the total land acquisition of 50 representative real estate enterprises decreased by 59.4% year-on-yearP align = “center” data source: CREIS data (including land for bidding, auction, listing and acquisition)
From the data, the total land acquisition on behalf of real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year in the first April, and this trend has appeared since October 2021.
In fact, the 50 representative real estate enterprises also showed significant differentiation. State owned enterprises, central enterprises and local urban investment companies are still the main force of land acquisition in the first batch of centralized land supply this year, such as CNOOC real estate and China Resources Land in the first camp, private listed real estate enterprises in the second camp, green city Zhongguo, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) etc., all performed prominently in the land market in April.
From January to April, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Greentown China and construction and development real estate occupied the top three places in the list. Of which Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ranks first with the cumulative added value of 57.5 billion yuan; Greentown China and China Construction and development real estate followed, with the cumulative added value of 54.8 billion yuan and 39.1 billion yuan respectively. The total new value of top 10 real estate enterprises from January to April was 341.3 billion yuan, accounting for 34.1% of top 100 enterprises, and the threshold of new value was 20.8 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that due to the downward trend of the market as a whole, enterprises are more inclined to cooperate to obtain land. In April, the average proportion of land rights and interests of 50 representative real estate enterprises in bidding, auction and listing decreased to 79.7%, down 4.9 percentage points from the same period. Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of land acquisition rights and interests of enterprises in the top 31-50 camp decreased the most, down 6.9 percentage points; The proportion of land acquisition rights and interests of enterprises in the top 11-30 camp decreased by 4.4 percentage points; The proportion of land acquisition rights and interests of enterprises in the top 10 camp increased by 1.9 percentage points.
In April, the bond issuance scale of real estate enterprises decreased both month on month
In April, the issuance scale of credit bonds and overseas bonds of real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year.
According to the data of China Index Research Institute, the issuance scale of credit bonds of real estate enterprises in April was 36.887 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 35.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 49.6% compared with 73.195 billion yuan in April last year; In April, the issuance scale of overseas foreign debt of mainland real estate enterprises was 2.885 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.46%.
From the perspective of financing costs, the financing costs of credit bonds and overseas bonds fluctuated slightly, of which the average interest rate of credit bonds was 3.48% and the average interest rate of overseas bonds was 5.55%, down 0.95 percentage points and 0.35 percentage points respectively year-on-year.
According to Kerui statistics, 9 of the top 30 real estate enterprises participated in the issuance of new bonds in April, down 2 from March; Among the bond issuing Housing enterprises, except Xuhui, they are all state-owned and central enterprises. The financing scale of state-owned and central enterprises in April increased by 317.1% month on month compared with March. For example, the new bond financing scale of Jinmao and China Resources in April was as high as 8.71 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan respectively, and the financing cost was 3.38% – 3.4%.
On the other hand, the scale of new debt of real estate enterprises is lower than that of long-term debt issuance. According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, in the first quarter of 2022, the maturity debt of domestic and foreign bond financing of real estate enterprises was about 252.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%. In the first quarter, the new financing of real estate enterprises was 173.3 billion yuan, and the net debt due was 78.8 billion yuan, an increase of 69.4 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2021.
Shell research said that although the absolute number of debt due in the first quarter of 2022 decreased year-on-year, the debt repayment pressure of real estate enterprises did not substantially decrease due to the sharp contraction of the scale of debt issuance. At the same time, affected by the credit risk of real estate enterprises, creditors have insufficient confidence in the repayment of real estate enterprises, which leads to the difficulty of debt extension at this stage. Some real estate enterprises with concentrated due debt still maintain a certain risk of default.
The reporter noted that on April 29, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee again mentioned “optimizing the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds”. Many institutions believe that the supervision rules of pre-sale funds in some cities are expected to be relaxed in the future, which can alleviate the financial pressure of real estate enterprises to a certain extent.
In this regard, Liu Shui said, “optimizing the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing can help alleviate the financial pressure, but the impact on the substantial improvement of the financial pressure of real estate enterprises is limited. We calculate that an average of 30% – 40% of the pre-sale funds are regulated. In the short term, ‘guaranteed delivery of buildings’ is still the bottom line of the policy. After the optimization and adjustment of the pre-sale funds supervision policy, the pre-sale funds supervision can be reduced by about 10%, which has a limited impact on the substantial improvement of the financial pressure of real estate enterprises.”
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