Cosmetics industry: with obvious sector differentiation, the leading strong is always strong. (1) Brand side: continue the high growth trend. In 2021, the annual revenue increased by 28.7% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 18.6%. Some brands increased the construction of new channels and the launch of brand traffic, and the sales expenses disturbed the performance, but the brand companies still performed strongly: ① the industry is high β： In 2021, the growth rate of the cosmetics industry was ahead of that of the society, showing a high outlook; ② Long touqiang α： With the rise of the national tide and the tide of effective skin care, brands with both product power show strong profitability, Matthew effect is obvious, and the leading performances of Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) and others exceed expectations. (2) Agency operation sector: the revenue scale and profitability have declined: ① the agency operation company takes tmall as the basic market, the flow bonus has decreased, and the flow is gradually saturated. The company has switched from tmall to Tiktok, Kwai and other platforms; ② Some operating companies convert the service mode of key customers and expand new products and categories at the same time, but the volume still needs time to be realized. (3) Raw material sector: under the factors of rising raw material prices, high shipping costs and rising labor costs, considering the weak market growth under the epidemic, it is difficult for the cosmetics manufacturing industry to transmit the pressure of rising costs to downstream enterprises, reduce profit margins and improve on a month on month basis in 22q1.
Medical and beauty industry: under the repeated disturbance of supervision and epidemic situation, the performance of enterprises in all links of the industrial chain is greatly differentiated. (1) Pharmaceutical machinery product end: the leading performance of Yimei is still bright. The annual revenue of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) 21 is 1.45 billion / yoy + 104.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 960 million / yoy + 117.8%. Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Sihuan medicine benefited from the listing of heavy products girl needle and letibao in China, and the pharmaceutical business is weak due to the impact of centralized purchase. Yimei business still achieves rapid growth, with operating revenue of 1 billion / yoy + 123.3% YoY and 400 million / yoy + 1383% respectively, Under the support of compliance certificate and product strength, the leading enterprises have higher anti risk ability. Under the disturbance of policies and epidemic situation, they can still enjoy the high growth dividend of the medical and American industry and improve their performance. (2) Institutional service end: affected most by the repeated epidemic and regulatory restrictions, the profit level has declined significantly. It is expected that the epidemic will still restrict the development of institutional business activities in the short term, and it is optimistic about the recovery of institutional performance after the epidemic in the long term. (3) Channel platform side: the early medical beauty advertising regulation has had a great impact on platform enterprises represented by neooxin, making it more difficult for them to obtain customers. In 21 years, their business performance has been poor, and the revenue and profit have increased by 30.7% / – 244.2% year-on-year. However, under the influence of the epidemic, some consumers are expected to move consulting activities from offline to online, which is used as a channel platform to obtain project and institutional information in advance, It will still be an indispensable part of the medical and aesthetic industry.
Investment suggestion: the beauty care sector is more resilient than the overall social zero, the industry maintains a high outlook, and the epidemic disturbs medical and beauty consumption, but the impact of cosmetics consumption in the off-season is limited. It is optimistic about the replenishment of consumption after the epidemic. The configuration of the sector follows two main lines:
(1) long term allocation of sector leaders with obvious advantages and high performance certainty: ① Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (high industry prosperity + pattern optimization + rich products, PEG 1.49x for 22 years), ② Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (rising ingredients + rich channels + sub brand construction, PEG 1.71x); ③ Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) (implement the strategy of large single product + high growth of sub brands, PEG 1.95x); ④ Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) (high increase of skin care products + improvement of cost rate, PEG 2.55x). (2) Looking for the target of marginal improvement of performance in the short term: ① Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) (22q1 girl needle performs well, 21x); ② Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) (short-term performance improvement + medium-term capacity release + long-term product expansion, 26x); ③ Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) (cosmetics high growth, 17x); ④ Yonghe medical (post epidemic consumption recovery + profit margin improvement, 24x).
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is declining; Increased competition; Epidemic disturbance; The launch of new medical beauty products and cosmetics brands is less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials and products.
