Comments on the sales data of Kerui top 100 real estate enterprises: the industry fundamentals are under pressure and the “gold, silver and four” are out of date

The sales of top 100 real estate enterprises continued to decline. From January to April, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a trading amount of 1.87 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 50.13%; The trading area reached 125 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 52.17%; The full-scale sales amount was 2.12 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 50.49%, and the full-scale sales area was 138 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 52.33%. In a single month in April, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a trading amount of 430.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.43% and a month on month decrease of 15.81%; The trading area was 27.994 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 61.21% and a month on month decrease of 15.92%; The full caliber sales amount was 492.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.19% and a month on month decrease of 15.03%; The full caliber sales area was 31.873 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 60.68% and a month on month decrease of 12.35%.

The sales decline of top 5 real estate enterprises is smaller than that of other echelon real estate enterprises. From January to April, the total sales amount of top 5 real estate enterprises fell by 45.78% year-on-year, lower than that of top 10 (- 46.02%), top 20 (- 48.76%) and top 50 (- 50.81%), and the decline of sales amount of all echelons of real estate enterprises increased compared with the previous month. The full caliber sales area of top 10 real estate enterprises has decreased by 50.10% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year decline is lower than that of top 5 (- 51.06%), top 20 (- 51.13%) and top 50 (- 51.66%). The decline of sales area of all echelons of real estate enterprises has expanded compared with the previous month.

The accumulated amount of trading decreased slightly year-on-year, including Renheng land (- 11.52%), Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) (- 20.24%) and Yuexiu real estate (- 22.59%); The total trading area of Wanda Group increased by 135.96% year-on-year, and the total trading area of the top 30 real estate enterprises decreased slightly year-on-year, namely Greentown China (- 21.98%), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 28.24%) and sunshine earth (- 31.63%); The cumulative year-on-year decline of full caliber sales amount is relatively small, which are Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) (- 20.26%), Yuexiu real estate (- 24.70%) and Ocean Group (- 27.87%); The accumulated amount of equity decreased slightly year-on-year, namely Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) (- 20.22%), Yuexiu real estate (- 22.59%) and Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) (- 26.90%); The total sales area of Wanda Group increased by 98.15% year-on-year. Among the top 30 real estate enterprises, the total sales area of Wanda Group decreased slightly year-on-year, namely, hailenburg (- 24.54%), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 26.64%) and Greentown China (- 29.70%).

Investment advice

Sales continue to decline, the Politburo meeting is expected to stabilize, and it will take some time to restore market confidence. The Matthew effect of capital is prominent, and enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. Related targets: real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in first and second tier cities, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) . SH), Greentown China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ( Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . SZ), Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) ( Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) . SH) Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) ( Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) . SH), etc;

Risk tips

Real estate policy regulation exceeded expectations; The sales of commercial houses were lower than expected.

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