In terms of overseas photovoltaic projects, the overall demand for distributed photovoltaic projects continued to grow better than that in China in May. It is expected that the global PV installed capacity in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation, focusing on high-quality companies in silicon materials, adhesive films, modules, inverters and other links; In terms of wind power, Shandong Province subsidizes the sea wind, and the land wind / sea wind bidding keeps growing at a high speed, reflecting the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity. In addition, the probability of issuing new energy subsidies increases, and the installed capacity of wind power is expected to rebound significantly in 2022. It is optimistic about the wind power landscape and the opportunity of profit restoration; In terms of energy storage, overseas countries will accelerate the pace of new energy installation, which is expected to be in the 14th five year plan
During this period, China's relevant policies will continue to be issued, and the cost reduction is expected to promote the continuous outbreak of the energy storage industry. It is suggested to focus on the pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage industry chain. 2) The construction of new power system under the "double carbon goal" is promoted in an all-round way. On the one hand, the annual power grid power investment is expected to remain high, on the other hand, the power grid structure is expected to continue to accelerate. Around the upgrading of distributed and supporting smart grid, the construction of composite energy base and the construction of supporting power export channel, it is expected to take the lead, and the construction of large-scale projects is expected to take the lead at the end of the second quarter.
New energy: the photovoltaic demand outside China continues to improve, and the development of the global energy storage market is expected to exceed expectations.
1) photovoltaic: after the disclosure of the results of the first quarterly report, the observation shows that the shipment volume and performance of leading integrated module manufacturers are generally in line with expectations. Under the condition of high silicon material price, they can still maintain a strong recovery of single w profit, and the cost reduction and optimization effect driven by integration rate and technological change is obvious. In the second quarter, overseas orders were still the main demand of Chinese component manufacturers, and there was strong demand for components in Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Some ground power stations connected to the grid in China were started in the middle of the year. The overall production scheduling was better in May, and the price of silicon components increased to a certain extent due to the impact of the epidemic on logistics. As the new capacity of silicon material in 2022q2 gradually contributes to the increment, the pressure on the supply chain is expected to ease steadily, and the industry is expected to return to the main road of cost reduction and efficiency increase. At the same time, driven by China's scenery base, the distributed promotion of the whole county and the BIPV policy, the industry demand is expected to accelerate, and China's annual installed capacity is expected to increase to 75-80gw Europe will accelerate the construction progress of photovoltaic projects, and the overseas installed capacity is expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth. The global installed capacity is expected to exceed 230gw It is recommended to focus on photovoltaic modules, inverters, silicon materials, adhesive films and equipment.
2) wind power: since 2022, land / sea wind bidding has continued to exceed expectations, reflecting the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity, and the low bidding price is expected to promote the continuous decline of wind power costs, while the concerns about the impact of the rise in the price of upstream raw materials on profits and shipments still suppress the sector. It is expected that driven by the continuous cost reduction of complete machine manufacturers and parts enterprises, the industry profit is expected to usher in an inflection point in Q2. With the accelerated upgrading of megawatts of wind power, the accelerated construction of large base projects and the overall price reduction of wind turbines, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is expected to rise rapidly, the yield is expected to be significantly repaired, and the overall installed capacity of the whole year is expected to reach more than 50gw; In 2022, due to the withdrawal of the national subsidy policy, offshore wind power will face the pressure of periodic adjustment. However, with the centralized bidding period of provincial offshore wind projects, especially the medium and long-term planning objectives of Hainan and Shandong recently, it will lay the foundation and confidence for the recovery of installed capacity after 2023. At the same time, the technology upgrading and cost performance advantages of Chinese fan manufacturers have been greatly improved. It is expected that the fan export market is expected to accelerate growth in 2022.
3) energy storage: the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan and the plan for the modern energy system in the 14th five year plan, which have been issued recently, have made clear policy guidelines for the distribution and storage of renewable energy, superimposed with the acceleration of the development of new energy power outside China, and it is expected that 2022 will become the key time point for the industrialization of energy storage projects. The realization of the goal of carbon neutralization requires the large-scale construction of new energy such as wind power and photovoltaic. The effective operation of new energy power generation needs the support of new power system, and the development of energy storage is the key link of new power system. With the active promotion of China's policies, the introduction of multi place storage and distribution planning has helped to improve the scale of energy storage. It is expected that from the second half of 2022, the cost of wind power, photovoltaic manufacturing and energy storage system will decline, which is expected to continuously improve the economy of energy storage. We judge that from 2021 to 2025, the global energy storage market will release 20.1/32.7/52.5/65.3/93.2gw energy storage construction demand respectively, and the capacity demand under the comprehensive standby time will be 38.8/68.5/108.1/158.8/235.7gwh respectively, which is expected to drive the explosive growth of procurement demand for major energy storage technologies and related industrial chains.
Electrical equipment: the central financial and Economic Commission held a meeting to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system. On April 26, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission was held to study the issue of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction; The meeting pointed out that we should strengthen the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy, focus on networking, supplementary network and strong chain, develop distributed smart grid and build a number of new green and low-carbon energy bases. On this basis, due to the impact of scattered epidemic in various places in the first and second quarters of 2022, the macro economy is gradually under pressure. Represented by the upgrading of energy system, the new infrastructure can accelerate the "double carbon" transformation and promote the development of industrial chain through investment. We judge that, on the one hand, the annual power grid power investment is expected to remain high, on the other hand, the power grid structure is expected to continue to accelerate. Around the upgrading of distributed and supporting smart grids, the construction of large composite energy bases and the construction of supporting power export channels, it is expected to take the lead, and the construction of large-scale projects is expected to take the lead at the end of the second quarter.
Risk factors: the installed capacity growth of new energy is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The supporting capacity of the industrial chain is limited; Product prices fell sharply; The implementation of favorable policies is less than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected; UHV approval rhythm is lower than expected; The macroeconomic boom is lower than expected; The industrial boom is less than expected; The growth rate of power consumption slows down; Domestic substitution is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
Investment strategy: 1) with the carbon neutral goal in mind, the investment strategy: 1) with the carbon neutral goal in the middle of the carbon neutral target, during the "14th five year" period, the landscape's installed hubs are expected to be expected to go up further. In the photovoltaic field, it's recommended to focus on the recommendations in the photovoltaic field. Focus on the silicon that benefits from the ever tight supply and demand landscape. The silicon tap Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 00438 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 0043 Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) 0043 Shanghai Jielong Industry Group Corporation Limited(600836) 883 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 68 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83686868686860089 \ Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) etc., rubber film link faucet Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , carbon / carbon heat field quality supplier Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , battery laser equipment faucet Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , component series welding machine faucet Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; In the field of wind power, it is suggested to focus on Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc., which benefit from the upgrading of wind power technology; In the field of energy storage, focus on Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) in the field of pumped storage, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) and Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) in the field of electrochemical energy storage. 2) Electrical equipment sector: the investment in power grid is expected to enter a new boom period. In the field of power grid, it is recommended to focus on Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Shanghai Holystar Information Technology Co.Ltd(688330) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) , Windsun Science Technology Co.Ltd(688663) , and the domestic comprehensive equipment leader Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) ; Under the rotation of industrial control cycle, focus on recommending domestic industrial control leader Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption reached 10.3%, focusing on the domestic low-voltage electrical appliance leaders Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.Ltd(002706) , and the power EPCO service provider Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
