This week’s weekly report includes three parts: 1) performance review of computer 2021 and 2022q1. From the perspective of cost, the double material of personnel expansion / salary increase will stay in 2021. The salary cost control in 2022 may be optimistic, and the follow-up may be a positive scissors gap of “income cost mismatch”. In 2021q1, the salary increase after capitalization / non capitalization is 19% / 18%, which is an optimistic signal.
2) 2021 annual report and 2022q1 quarterly report of the industry: what is lower than expected is often the aforementioned performance expansion cycle and intensified competition in the main industry. Those that exceed expectations are often those with good business model and high safety margin of main business. Moreover, the overall performance of 2021q1 is better than / in line with expectations, better than that in 2021. 3) There are many computers and the leading P / OCF is low. .
First, the lowest point in 2021 is determined to verify the previous judgment. 1) From the perspective of cost, the double material of personnel expansion / salary increase will stay in 2021. In 2021q4, the industry’s revenue grew by 15%, slightly higher than twice the GDP growth, which is normal. In terms of cost, the growth rate of manpower is as high as 17%, which is higher than our previous prediction, because in the past, the average annual expansion of manpower was between 7% – 10%. Accordingly, considering that the salary growth rate before capitalization is 31%, the salary growth rate after capitalization is 29%. This implies a 10% – 15% per capita salary increase. 2) The salary cost control in 2022 may be optimistic, and the follow-up may be a positive scissors gap of “income cost mismatch”.
In 2021q1, the salary increase after capitalization / non capitalization is 19% / 18%, which is an optimistic signal. It is expected that the pressure of salary growth in 2022h2 will be reduced, which should be 15% – 20%. 3) The low growth rate of the income statement should be in the past two quarters. Once the revenue growth rate of 2022q2-q4 exceeds 15% and the salary growth rate is less than 17%, there may be a positive scissors gap in profits. 4) The gross profit margin is stable at 28%, which is related to the change of accounting standards. 5) The balance sheet signal is calm, and the high inventory should be related to the preparation of upstream chips.
Secondly, 2021 is lower than expected company analysis. 1) For companies whose performance is lower than expected, one reason is the aforementioned manpower expansion cycle. For example, Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , generally invest in new businesses, such as digital base, solutions and cloud related new products. New products are often businesses with “large single user value but slow payment collection”, which are prone to income and cost mismatch. 2) Another reason is the intensification of competition in the main industry. For example, Winning Health Technology Group Co.Ltd(300253) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , 360 Security Technology Inc(601360) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) -u, Aisino Corporation(600271) , Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) ( Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) communication), etc., represented by information security companies.
Thirdly, 2021 exceeded the expected company analysis. 1) For companies with better than expected performance, one reason is that the business model has advantages.
For example, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) ( Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) machinery), the business models have hardware carriers, and many companies belong to “embedded software”. The added value of its industrial chain includes manufacturing, OEM / ODM and software added value. It has the characteristics that hardware is easy for customers to purchase and software added value is easy to negotiate. It is a better business model. 2) For companies with better than expected performance, another reason is that the high safety margin of main business supports human expansion. These companies are also facing a big year of manpower expansion, and even the growth rate of manpower is more than 20%. However, the higher safety margin of the main business often leads to a per capita profit of more than 150000 yuan or even 300000 yuan. This is less sensitive to short-term cost investment and better than most computer companies. 3) Companies with better than expected performance have little relevance to the track. For example, Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , belong to the low growth track considered by the market. While Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) (machinery) belong to the high prosperity track considered by investors. The performance expectation of low growth track is also low, and the performance expectation of high growth track is also high.
P / OCF is very cost-effective. As the net cash ratio of computer leaders often exceeds 1 or even 1.5, after two years of digestion, many companies have become computer leaders with low P / OCF. For example, Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , etc.
Risk: in 2021, the industry income tends to slow down and the salary tends to increase. There is a risk of performance fluctuation in 2021.
